OBGibby's Account Talk

[OBGibby]

And another one:

In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke's War on the Great Panic by David Wessel


Good explanation of how the Fed works, as well as a detail accounting of the Fed's response to the current financial turmoil.

From Amazon.com:

“...gives a revealing blow-by-blow account of the recent financial crisis”
—David Brooks, The New York Times

“...essential, lucid—and, it turns out, riveting—reading."
—Michiko Kakutani, The New York Times

“...a tale that’s nothing short of hair-raising..reveals in scary detail how unprepared politicians and regulators truly were...”
—Paul M Barrett, The New York Times Book Review

“Wessel delivers an engrossing account of Bernanke's improvisational responses to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.”
—Fortune Magazine

“... so far the most entertaining and most readable book on the financial crisis.”
—Tyler Cowen, marginalrevolution.com

“...persuasively told and richly reported... It will win awards and inspire copycats.”
—BusinessWeek

"David Wessel brings his deep knowledge of the Federal Reserve and U.S. politics and economics to a topic that will be studied by historians for decades to come...No one can understand what happened and what did not happen without reading this book." –Joseph E. Stiglitz, winner of the Nobel Prize in economic and author of Globalization and its Discontents

 

[OBGibby]

One more:

Fool's Gold: How the Bold Dream of a Small Tribe at J.P. Morgan Was Corrupted by Wall Street Greed and Unleashed a Catastrophe by Gillian Tett


From Amazon.com:

"The story begins with the intense Morgan brainstorming session in 1994 beside a pool in Boca Raton, where the team cooked up a dazzling new idea for the exotic financial product known as credit derivatives. That idea would rip around the banking world, catapult Morgan to the top of the turbocharged derivatives trade, and fuel an extraordinary banking boom that seemed to have unleashed banks from ages-old constraints of risk...

...But when the Morgan team's derivatives dream collided with the housing boom, and was perverted -- through hubris, delusion, and sheer greed -- by titans of banking that included Citigroup, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and the thundering herd at Merrill Lynch -- even as J.P. Morgan itself stayed well away from the risky concoctions others were peddling -- catastrophe followed."

 

[Show-me]

Thanks, just ordered In Fed We Trust.

 

[OBGibby]

According to my tsp.gov online account, my 'Personal Investment Performance' (PIP) for the twelve months ending December 31, 2009, was up 29.86%.

Previous 12 Months Ending:

May 31, 2009 -27.15%
Jun 30, 2009 -21.34%
Jul 30, 2009 -12.23%
Aug 31, 2009 -8.27%
Sep 30, 2009 +4.27%
Oct 31, 2009 +18.69%
Nov 30, 2009 +31.51%
Dec 30, 2009 +29.86%

 

[Boghie]

OBGibby,

I hate to say this but...
Don't feed the trolls.

Never thought I would have to say this here, but we now definitely have trolls that have no idea what this site is for. To me the primary is TSP, secondary is financials, and tertiary is community. The purpose of this site is not to blather about unsubstantiated war rants or gubmint takeovers of industry. (By the way, I am not a moderator here. And, sometimes squashing trolls is fun for the whole family)

 

[OBGibby]

OBGibby,

I hate to say this but...
Don't feed the trolls.

Never thought I would have to say this here, but we now definitely have trolls that have no idea what this site is for. To me the primary is TSP, secondary is financials, and tertiary is community. The purpose of this site is not to blather about unsubstantiated war rants or gubmint takeovers of industry. (By the way, I am not a moderator here. And, sometimes squashing trolls is fun for the whole family)

Similar advice I recently gave another board member...

Look at me now - a relapsed troll-feeding junkie!!!

 

[OBGibby]

For Savers, It Was Hardly a Lost Decade

By Ron Lieber

With diversification and regular contributions, many investors could have doubled their account balances in the last decade. (The New York Times)

 

[Birchtree]

Over the years dollar cost averaging has always been my portfolio redeemer - there isn't anything more fun than dropping good money down a very dark and deep rabbit hole because that's where the plumpest of the blackberries hide. They like the shade and you often pay a price to pick them by catching a briar. I've made 652 individual stock buys since June 26th and I'm ready to add more as the rally continues - I don't mind buying higher.

 

[OBGibby]

I'm following your lead, Birch. Dumping as much as I can down the hole every other week. Looks like I'll be able to continue the maximum $16.5K in contributions this year. Decided to put 10% in G so I can have some spending money during the next downturn...

 

[OBGibby]

Thanks to those of you who have voted in the poll at the top of the thread so far. To those that haven't: there's still time left. The poll has a little less than 24 hours before it closes...As I explained in an earlier post - the poll is not collecting information on who voted for which answer (the MB does so it won't allow you to vote twice, but that information is not made available to me). I'm just curious as to what the average is on the Message Board.

 

[OBGibby]

U.S. Loan Effort Is Seen as Adding to Housing Woes

By PETER S. GOODMAN

(The New York Times)

"The Obama administration’s $75 billion program to protect homeowners from foreclosure has been widely pronounced a disappointment, and some economists and real estate experts now contend it has done more harm than good."

"Since President Obama announced the program in February, it has lowered mortgage payments on a trial basis for hundreds of thousands of people but has largely failed to provide permanent relief. Critics increasingly argue that the program, Making Home Affordable, has raised false hopes among people who simply cannot afford their homes."

".....Mr. Katari contends that banks have been using temporary loan modifications under the Obama plan as justification to avoid an honest accounting of the mortgage losses still on their books. Only after banks are forced to acknowledge losses and the real estate market absorbs a now pent-up surge of foreclosed properties will housing prices drop to levels at which enough Americans can afford to buy, he argues....."

More at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/02/business/economy/02modify.html?hp

 

[OBGibby]

Yes, folks, there's still time...Still time to vote in the poll at the top of this thread. We're at 29, looking for a few more...

 

[OBGibby]

Finished reading this one last night. It's a quick and entertaining read. It details how some folks bet heavily against the housing bubble and literally walked away with billions from very cheap bets. The book primarily follows the tale of John Paulson (personnally pocketed $6 billion in two years; his small firm and clients took home over $20 billion), but also highlights a handful of other individual investors and small hedge fund managers who made a buckets of cash. One of the smaller fund managers had a 1,000% return in 2006.

Most of Paulson's funds scored gains of 30% or so in 2008, while the market at large was in the opposite direction. In 2007, two of his funds returned 590% and 350%.

The book is just under 300 pages and is a quick read.


The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History by Gregory Zuckerman


From Amazon.com:

"Mr. Zuckerman is a first-rate reporter who is also able to explain the complexities of real estate finance in layman’s terms. At times, The Greatest Trade Ever reads like a thriller."
--The New York Times

“How Paulson and a handful of contrarian investors pulled off this once-in-a-lifetime coup is the subject of The Greatest Trade Ever ... a fascinating and believable counter-narrative to the growing pile of books recounting the disastrous mistakes made by many of the supposedly smartest minds on Wall Street. It is also a surprisingly dramatic work...In The Greatest Trade Ever, Zuckerman skillfully shows how Paulson and a few cohorts anticipated a disaster and figured out a way to profit.”
--BusinessWeek

"More than a cinematic narrative of how Paulson and others figured out how to short the market. We’re also reminded of how opaque and illiquid some financial instruments are, how little Wall Street executives understood them, and how difficult it was for more knowledgeable bankers to say that the subprime emperor had no clothes."
--Bloomberg.com

"Zuckerman has a story to tell, a thread to follow, and it just happens to turn out that by following the saga of John Paulson, Zuckerman reveals all kinds of fascinating perspectives on complex finance, the real estate bubble and Wall Street and Washington's difficulties in putting the two together.”
--TheDeal.com

“A magnificent insider look at how Paulson and others profited off of subprime’s demise, detailing both the formulation and implementation of such a trade…Zuckerman’s work is both insightful and gripping.”
--Marketfolly.com

"Greg Zuckerman was the first to tell the world about John Paulson's sensational trade…He's written the definitive account of a strange and wonderful subplot of the financial crisis."
--Michael Lewis, bestselling author of Moneyball and Home Game

"Gregory Zuckerman takes us to Wall Street's heart of darkness, where mushroomed a $1 trillion subprime mortgage market that only the few, the brave, the smart dared short. The story of John Paulson and the few colorful contrarians who made outsized bets and outrageous profits on the subprime implosion, is at once a great page-turner and a great illuminator of the market's crash."
--John Helyar, co-author, Barbarians at the Gate: The Fall of RJR Nabisco

"Greg Zuckerman's book is much, much more than a brilliant account of Paulson's trade of the century; it also provides a highly enjoyable and lucid journey through the analytical and emotional maze that constituted the financial markets on the eve of the Great Recession. The book is compulsory reading for those looking for exceptional insights on the complex forces that interconnect Wall Street, hedge funds and Main Street."
--Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Executive Officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. and bestselling author of When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change

"I couldn't put it down. All I can say is, WOW! What a story! Incredibly illuminating."
--Whitney Tilson, hedge fund manager and author of More Mortgage Meltdown: 6 Ways to Profit in These Bad Times

"The Greatest Trade Ever is aptly titled, for it is possibly the greatest book to come out of the financial crisis of 2007 — 2008, and it’s certainly up there in the top 3."
--Bnet.com

 

[Rube]

About the poll:

I guess nobody in the 401-499K range gets to respond.........?

 

[OBGibby]

About the poll:

I guess nobody in the 401-499K range gets to respond.........?

Nice catch...Too bad it's four days late.

 

[OBGibby]

Birchtree and the rest of the bullish crowd should enjoy this one...


Top Market Timers Give Their 2010 Outlooks - Mark Hulbert, Barron's

*Blue Chip Investor (Steven Check) -- Bullish.
*Bob Brinker's Marketimer (Robert Brinker) -- Bullish.
*The Chartist & The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter (Dan Sullivan) -- Bullish. *Fidelity Independent Adviser (Donald Dion) -- Bullish. *Fidelity Sector Investor (James Lowell) -- Bullish.

The bottom line? All five of our panel of experts are bullish, with an average recommended equity exposure level of 97%.

 

[Birchtree]

That was a nice read - but my stomach is tight like it was at the bottom. I'm back to doing some buying and perhaps that's why. It's never easy to buy but I have to do it.

 

[nnuut]

Birchtree and the rest of the bullish crowd should enjoy this one...


Top Market Timers Give Their 2010 Outlooks - Mark Hulbert, Barron's

*Blue Chip Investor (Steven Check) -- Bullish.
*Bob Brinker's Marketimer (Robert Brinker) -- Bullish.
*The Chartist & The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter (Dan Sullivan) -- Bullish. *Fidelity Independent Adviser (Donald Dion) -- Bullish. *Fidelity Sector Investor (James Lowell) -- Bullish.

The bottom line? All five of our panel of experts are bullish, with an average recommended equity exposure level of 97%.

Then it's time to GET OUT of the Market for sure!!

 

[OBGibby]

After logging out of tsp.gov a few minutes ago I was invited to view the TSP website (beta). It has a nice look and appears very easy to navigate. I clicked on the button to participate in the survey about the new site but it had already been deactivated...

 

[OBGibby]

Income Angst? Not for Public Employees - Jeff Jacoby, Boston Globe

".....Since December 2007, when the current downturn began, the ranks of federal employees earning $100,000 and up has skyrocketed. According to a recent analysis by USA Today, federal workers making six-figure salaries - not including overtime and bonuses - “jumped from 14 percent to 19 percent of civil servants during the recession’s first 18 months.’’ The surge has been especially pronounced among the highest-paid employees. At the Defense Department, for example, the number of civilian workers making $150,000 or more quintupled from 1,868 to 10,100. At the recession’s start, the Transportation Department was paying only one person a salary of $170,000. Eighteen months later, 1,690 employees were drawing paychecks that size....."

Read entire article at http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/e.../01/27/income_angst_not_for_public_employees/