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NSurf9 Account Talk
- Thread starter nsurf9
- Start date
nsurf9
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 13
What happened to "Sell in May and go away - come back in Sept/October. At the beginning of this bull rush, the market had shifted into 2nd gear, when I had just started my engine. The question is how much of a correction will occur, and when.
Thus far, I survived the May 2006 drop, the subsequent head-fakes, false bottoms and tops, and seemingly endless record highs - and modestly profited. At times, the equity markets seems to be creating thin-ice steps, where there were none before, to more solid ones. Where will the climbing-a-wall-of-worry end - and it will! - eventually.
In the meantime, it day-by-day reassessment. I'm keeping my finger in the wind, eyes on the ball, and ears on tracks (e.g. US Fed, corporate earnings report, economic events, oil prices, US dollar, middle-east, Bush, stochastic elasticity, May/October cycle, the unforseen). Hopefully, I won't be distracted or faked-out - and, can run like heck to "G" before it does.
Thus far, I survived the May 2006 drop, the subsequent head-fakes, false bottoms and tops, and seemingly endless record highs - and modestly profited. At times, the equity markets seems to be creating thin-ice steps, where there were none before, to more solid ones. Where will the climbing-a-wall-of-worry end - and it will! - eventually.
In the meantime, it day-by-day reassessment. I'm keeping my finger in the wind, eyes on the ball, and ears on tracks (e.g. US Fed, corporate earnings report, economic events, oil prices, US dollar, middle-east, Bush, stochastic elasticity, May/October cycle, the unforseen). Hopefully, I won't be distracted or faked-out - and, can run like heck to "G" before it does.
nsurf9
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 13
What happened to "Sell in May and go away - come back in Sept/October. At the beginning of this bull rush, the market had shifted into 2nd gear, when I had just started my engine. The question is how much of a correction will occur, and when.
Thus far, I survived the May 2006 drop, the subsequent head-fakes, false bottoms and tops, and seemingly endless record highs - and modestly profited. At times, the equity markets seems to be creating thin-ice steps, where there were none before, to more solid ones. Where will the climbing-a-wall-of-worry end - and it will! - eventually.
In the meantime, it day-by-day reassessment. I'm keeping my finger in the wind, eyes on the ball, and ears on tracks (e.g. US Fed, corporate earnings report, economic events, oil prices, US dollar, middle-east, Bush, stochastic elasticity, May/October cycle, the unforseen). Hopefully, I won't be distracted or faked-out - and, can run like heck to "G" before it does.
Thus far, I survived the May 2006 drop, the subsequent head-fakes, false bottoms and tops, and seemingly endless record highs - and modestly profited. At times, the equity markets seems to be creating thin-ice steps, where there were none before, to more solid ones. Where will the climbing-a-wall-of-worry end - and it will! - eventually.
In the meantime, it day-by-day reassessment. I'm keeping my finger in the wind, eyes on the ball, and ears on tracks (e.g. US Fed, corporate earnings report, economic events, oil prices, US dollar, middle-east, Bush, stochastic elasticity, May/October cycle, the unforseen). Hopefully, I won't be distracted or faked-out - and, can run like heck to "G" before it does.
nsurf9
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 13
Full House 3 Factors Sell - I'm looking for a bounce, but ready to run to "G".
Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a "Full House" sell signal for the first time since the dotcom bust.
Morgan Stanley warns the 'mid-cycle rally is over'
Teun Draaisma, chief of European equities strategist for the US investment bank, said the triple warning was a "very powerful" signal that had been triggered just five times since 1980.
"Interest rates are rising and reaching critical levels. This matters more than growth for equities, so we think the mid-cycle rally is over. Our model is forecasting a 14pc correction over the next six months, but it could be more serious," he said. Mr Draaisma said the MSCI index of 600 European and British equities had dropped by an average of 15.2pc over six months after each "Full House" signal, with falls of 25.2pc after September 1987 and 26.2pc after April 2002. "We prefer to be on the right side of these odds," he said.
The first of the three signals Morgan Stanley monitors is a "composite valuation indicator" that divides the price/earnings ratio on stocks by bond yields. It measures "median" share prices that capture the froth of the merger boom, rather than relying on a handful of big companies on the major indexes.
"If you look at all shares, the p/e ratio is at an all-time high of 20," he said.
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The other two gauges measure fundamentals such as growth and inflation, as well as risk appetite. "Investors are taking far too much comfort from global liquidity. Markets always return to fundamental value, so people could be in for a rude awakening. This is the greater fool theory," he said. "The trigger may be rate rises by the Bank of Japan, or a widening of credit spreads. There are lots of little triggers."
Morgan Stanley is not predicting a recession, believing bond yields will fall during a correction and act as an "automatic stabiliser" for the world economy. Once the market shakes off the latest excesses, it's back to the races.
Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a "Full House" sell signal for the first time since the dotcom bust.
Morgan Stanley warns the 'mid-cycle rally is over'
Teun Draaisma, chief of European equities strategist for the US investment bank, said the triple warning was a "very powerful" signal that had been triggered just five times since 1980.
"Interest rates are rising and reaching critical levels. This matters more than growth for equities, so we think the mid-cycle rally is over. Our model is forecasting a 14pc correction over the next six months, but it could be more serious," he said. Mr Draaisma said the MSCI index of 600 European and British equities had dropped by an average of 15.2pc over six months after each "Full House" signal, with falls of 25.2pc after September 1987 and 26.2pc after April 2002. "We prefer to be on the right side of these odds," he said.
The first of the three signals Morgan Stanley monitors is a "composite valuation indicator" that divides the price/earnings ratio on stocks by bond yields. It measures "median" share prices that capture the froth of the merger boom, rather than relying on a handful of big companies on the major indexes.
"If you look at all shares, the p/e ratio is at an all-time high of 20," he said.
advertisement
The other two gauges measure fundamentals such as growth and inflation, as well as risk appetite. "Investors are taking far too much comfort from global liquidity. Markets always return to fundamental value, so people could be in for a rude awakening. This is the greater fool theory," he said. "The trigger may be rate rises by the Bank of Japan, or a widening of credit spreads. There are lots of little triggers."
Morgan Stanley is not predicting a recession, believing bond yields will fall during a correction and act as an "automatic stabiliser" for the world economy. Once the market shakes off the latest excesses, it's back to the races.
nsurf9
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 13
I am now feeling the chilling effect of the new TSP transfer limits. That is, trying to save interfund transfers (ITFs), so as not to be penalized into submitting only paper IFT requests. In these volital markets - nible-ness is key. The new limits and threats of penality are keeping me in too long and making me too apprehensive to try and capitalized on opportunities.
SEPARATE NOTE RE: BIRTCHTREE - - "Nine-to-One Signal"
An even more bullish signal, according to Zweig, is when two "Nine to One Up Days" take place within a short period of time -- something he called a "Double Nine-to-One" signal. It is this more bullish signal that got triggered on Tuesday: March 11, one week ago, was a Nine-to-One Up Day, and so was Tuesday, when up volume constituted more than 95% of the combined volume of both rising and falling stocks.
It seems that the bottom(s) may be beginning to register - - unless the whole machine breaks.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...-4460-AC40-51E2BA8D864B&dist=SecMostCommented
SEPARATE NOTE RE: BIRTCHTREE - - "Nine-to-One Signal"
An even more bullish signal, according to Zweig, is when two "Nine to One Up Days" take place within a short period of time -- something he called a "Double Nine-to-One" signal. It is this more bullish signal that got triggered on Tuesday: March 11, one week ago, was a Nine-to-One Up Day, and so was Tuesday, when up volume constituted more than 95% of the combined volume of both rising and falling stocks.
It seems that the bottom(s) may be beginning to register - - unless the whole machine breaks.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...-4460-AC40-51E2BA8D864B&dist=SecMostCommented
hessian
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 23
Nsurf9,
See thread below, post #646
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=156582#post156582
Currently I don't have standing to file a lawsuit - so far I've held to their "requested" 3/mo limit (hurts bigtime). My point is, as yet I haven't gotten the certified letter/electronic block. Somebody that has, MUST go for a legal challenge!!
VR
Ditto. You seem to have a knack for these volitile times and I salute you.
I sincerely hope you continue to post your moves in the Tracker and hopefully here in your Account Talk. If you could post them soon enough so other people would have time to follow your moves in their TSP accounts that would be icing on the cake (assuming you don't mind someone following your moves 
).
I sincerely hope you continue to post your moves in the Tracker and hopefully here in your Account Talk. If you could post them soon enough so other people would have time to follow your moves in their TSP accounts that would be icing on the cake (assuming you don't mind someone following your moves ).
nsurf9
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 13
It is often difficult for me to get to a IFT decision before close to 12:00 EST.
Yesterday, however, I did notice EDIT button at the automatic tracking allocation screen that may allow us all to show interim post postions, (re-edit posts) and then making it final before ~12:05pm.
Lately, however, I must warn you that my timing is getting messed-up with the TSP Board chilling effect.
Yesterday, however, I did notice EDIT button at the automatic tracking allocation screen that may allow us all to show interim post postions, (re-edit posts) and then making it final before ~12:05pm.
Lately, however, I must warn you that my timing is getting messed-up with the TSP Board chilling effect.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
This is the first time I've noticed your Thread my friend but you have made a huge impression on me. CONGRATULATOINS!! on being NUMBER ONE - especially this year.
Pogo and Griffin have more than proved themselves in the past but this year has hit them hard. I personally am more like Birch and could care less where I presently stand - but yet I'm confident I'll end the year well.
Anyway - you are in First Place - keep up the good work.
Pogo and Griffin have more than proved themselves in the past but this year has hit them hard. I personally am more like Birch and could care less where I presently stand - but yet I'm confident I'll end the year well.
Anyway - you are in First Place - keep up the good work.
nsurf9
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 13
Hessian, I have received a notice of a certified letter from "TSP fund." I have not signed for it, thus, I don't have actual notice of what it says. TSP does continue to accept my IFTs, so far.
As to standing - it would seem that any TSP member, and the TSP cousel voice people, should already have standing enough to bring an Emergency Temporary Injunction and stay the TSP Board's proposed limit policy until a full hearing on the facts and merits of the parties can be heard.
The balance of burden in this case is: TSP management saves a few bucks ($20), the members, on the other hand, loose the opportunity to gain thousands ($10K, a month) for the same few bucks. I would gladly pay for the ablity.
You would think that the Government would realize the potential benefit for itself and its often under-paid employees.
As to standing - it would seem that any TSP member, and the TSP cousel voice people, should already have standing enough to bring an Emergency Temporary Injunction and stay the TSP Board's proposed limit policy until a full hearing on the facts and merits of the parties can be heard.
The balance of burden in this case is: TSP management saves a few bucks ($20), the members, on the other hand, loose the opportunity to gain thousands ($10K, a month) for the same few bucks. I would gladly pay for the ablity.
You would think that the Government would realize the potential benefit for itself and its often under-paid employees.
hessian
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 23
Nsurf9,
I think anyone wiil have afirmative grounds to sue if they have actaully been blocked, /electronically.
Without this the court/judge could say refusal to IFT has been voluntary/merely complied via request.
VR
I think anyone wiil have afirmative grounds to sue if they have actaully been blocked, /electronically.
Without this the court/judge could say refusal to IFT has been voluntary/merely complied via request.
VR
Hey nsurf9, You can count on the certified letter being the punative "no electronic posts after March 31. I was out of town and received a notice from the post office about mine earlier i nthe week. After picking up the letter, my worst nighmares were confirmed. I am also locked out after March 31, and according to my records, I didn't violate their stinking rules. I will write them a letter to outline my case, but I don't think it will do me any good...I will send a copy to my congressmen also...just to be on record that I object to the decision and it is causing me financial harm. It was untimely implemented, the letter they sent was vague, their financial facts are wrong, and this whole thing is a bunch of BS. I'll just do it in professional terms. I have no legal background or connections or I would hire a lawyer to take it to them. Anyway, I picked up the letter figuring that the punative decision on their part will take effect whether I picked up the letter or not. So I signed for it and will use that letter to help make my case to my congressmen. I suggest that you do the same. I will post my letter on the Dr. Faustus thread when I complete it. Right now I have to get my income tax completed and filed. My full attention is on that since I have made my three moves for March and am in the G fund until this thing breaks. I will clearly support anyone who will take this thing on through the legal challenges, however. Both with letters, and financially. It is just plain wrong!!!!
nsurf9
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 13
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I just signed for Executive Director, TSP, Gregory T. Long's certified letter to me. TSP will impose the punitive action, beginning 3/31/08, at noon, to require me to submit IFTs via US Post Office regular mail.
Mr. Long recites that he sent a warning letter on 1/24/08. That letter stated that the TSP "might" restrict members to IFTs by mail, if "fewer that four IFTs in February 2008" are made. Although I did receive his 3/13/08 certfied letter, today, I never received his non-certifed "might" 1/24/08 letter.
Well, I made 4, or fewer IFTs in February.
Further, Mr. Long's letter does not mention when the restriction will be lifted, so that I may resume electronic IFTs.
Anyone ready for a Federal Complaint for an emergency temporary injunction againt the Mr. Long and TSP? Say "I."
I just signed for Executive Director, TSP, Gregory T. Long's certified letter to me. TSP will impose the punitive action, beginning 3/31/08, at noon, to require me to submit IFTs via US Post Office regular mail.
Mr. Long recites that he sent a warning letter on 1/24/08. That letter stated that the TSP "might" restrict members to IFTs by mail, if "fewer that four IFTs in February 2008" are made. Although I did receive his 3/13/08 certfied letter, today, I never received his non-certifed "might" 1/24/08 letter.
Well, I made 4, or fewer IFTs in February.
Further, Mr. Long's letter does not mention when the restriction will be lifted, so that I may resume electronic IFTs.
Anyone ready for a Federal Complaint for an emergency temporary injunction againt the Mr. Long and TSP? Say "I."
qibovin
TSP Analyst
- Reaction score
- 6
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
I'm not bragging about this at all but I've received no letters and have been able to make as many transfers as I want. I made 30+ transfers last year, and 19 transfers so far this year. It does not seem fair and feel free to use my example as ammo.
pezfallout
Investor
- Reaction score
- 1
I, Aye, Eye
Intrepid_Timer
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 80
Have you used the I fund much or mainly the C and S? I'm thinking they just don't want us trading the I fund.
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
In 2007, I transfered to and from I fund 11 times. So far this year, I've made 5 I fund transfers. Most of 2007 I was playing G to F.
