nnuut's Account Talk

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I'm getting that Falling Feeling again!!!!! :sick: OPPS!!!!
:eek:AAAAAHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa SPLAT!
 
WoW! Circuit brakers on in premarket trading. Is this Capitulation?:worried:

Brutal start seen for Wall Street

Futures trading limited. Global markets swoon on recession fears as British GDP declines, OPEC cuts oil.

Aaron Smith and Grace Wong, CNNMoney.com staff writers
Last Updated: October 24, 2008: 8:10 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A wave of anxiety about a global recession was set to reach the United States at Friday's Wall Street open, with limits imposed on futures trading after they fell more than 6%.
Futures followed the lead of plunging markets worldwide, with Japan's Nikkei index ending down 9.6% and European markets down almost as sharply.
"Today might be the day where everybody throws in the towel," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist for Avalon Partners. "People are saying 'I've had it, I can't take it anymore, I'm selling everything.'"
Futures trading limits were imposed before 7 a.m. ET, when Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 548 points. The futures for the S&P 500 were down 60 and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 84. Futures measure current index values against the perceived future performance and can indicate how markets open when trading begins in New York.
Economists said that even commodities were selling off, including a $18 drop in gold and a 6% decline in copper, with oil trading below $65 a barrel. The dollar rose against the euro and the British pound, but plunged against the yen.
"It's across-the-board global liquidation of stocks," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
Hogan cited a 0.5% drop in the United Kingdom's third-quarter GDP as one key reason for the selloff.
The gloom followed a positive Thursday for Wall Street. The Dow and S&P 500 both advanced while the Nasdaq slipped. But trading has been volatile lately amid uncertainty about how deep the economic crisis will be and how long it will last.
Stocks to watch Friday included software giant Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), which reported solid quarterly results late Thursday but issued a cautious outlook.
Oil. The Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries, which controls 40% of the world's oil supply, announced Friday that it would cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day, from its current level of 29 million.
OPEC had intended to raise prices by reducing production. But after the announcement, oil prices dropped $4.81 a barrel to $63.03 in electronic trading.
Housing market. At 10 a.m. ET, the National Association of Realtors will announce the September tally for existing home sales, an important measure in the real estate market. A consensus of estimates from Briefing.com projects an annual sales rate of 4.95 million units, up from last month's figure of 4.91 million.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/24/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2008102406
 
Nnutt,

Feeling good you bailed when you did? Come November, we'll be able to buy in at a lower price. Then maybe we will see some kind of a bear market rally.:)
 
I'm looking forward to it, it's a long way back up to even. My own fault!!:o
 
Friday, October 24, 2008

What's On Tap for the Markets in the Week Ahead

Dunstan Prial and Ken Sweet
Interest rates and earnings will dominate the upcoming week on Wall Street as investors seek a respite from the extraordinary volatility that has roiled global markets.
They’ll probably have to remain patient.
Wednesday is the big day. That’s when the Federal Reserve Board will announce whether interest rates will change or stay the same.
Given recent indications of a recession, mostly in the form of lousy corporate earnings, and the continued plunge of U.S. stock markets, some analysts have predicted the Fed will slash interest rates by a half point.
But most of the clues as to where the economy is heading and how stock markets will fare going forward will lie in earnings reports.
Monday will see one Dow member report: Verizon Communications (VZ: 25.08, -1.16, -4.42%), the largest telecommunications company in the U.S., is expected to earn 66 cents a share. Competitor AT&T (T: 24.68, -0.58, -2.29%) missed earnings expectations last week. Both companies are telecom firms, however, and their results don’t tend to affect markets too much.
Also coming Monday is DineEquity (DIN: 6.15, -1.10, -15.17%), which owns the Applebee’s and IHOP restaurant chains. Its results could be viewed as a gauge of consumer spending. The company is expected to post a loss of 12 cents a share.
Investors will also look at new home sales figures seeking a revival in the slumping U.S. housing market.
Tuesday sees more earnings and one notable economic report.
United States Steel Corp (X: 34.68, -0.83, -2.33%) is expected to have huge earnings of $6.93 a share. The company’s earnings have international implications. The stock is down 70% in three months as fears of a global recession have increased.
Consumer-oriented names such as Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD: 27.55, -1.58, -5.42%), Denny’s (DENN: 1.41, -0.17, -10.75%), Martha Stewart Omnimedia (MSO: 5.51, -0.26, -4.50%), Panasonic (PC: 13.80, -1.54, -10.03%), and Whirlpool (WHR: 49.16, -1.98, -3.87%) also report on Tuesday.
The Consumer Confidence Index reports Tuesday, as well, and is expected to fall from 59.8 to 54. No surprise since October has been one of the worst months economically since the 1930s.
In addition to the Fed meeting Wednesday, earnings reports will arrive from Dow newcomer Kraft (KFT: 27.10, -1.31, -4.61%), and also Proctor & Gamble (PG: 58.87, -1.70, -2.80%) and GM, the biggest U.S. car maker.
GM (GM: 5.95, -0.15, -2.45%), amid the worst downturn for auto makers in two decades, is expected to post a massive loss of $3.38 a share. Visa (V: 47.98, -0.34, -0.70%), another consumer oriented name, is also reporting.
A report on durable goods orders, a crucial sign of the economy, is expected to show a decline of 0.5% from a month ago.
Thursday is busy as well, with the gross domestic product (GDP: 23.97, -0.91, -3.65%) figure reported, and earnings from Dow member ExxonMobil (XOM: 69.04, -1.35, -1.91%).
If GDP for the quarter is down, as economists expect, it could represent the first quarter of an official U.S. recession.
Other earnings will come from CBS (CBS: 7.79, -0.63, -7.48%), CME Group (CME: 251.20, -26.46, -9.52%), which owns the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Deutsche Bank (DB: 35.65, -5.75, -13.88%), the largest German bank, and Colgate-Palmolive (CL: 55.94, -2.35, -4.03%), as well as video game giant Electronic Arts (ERTS: 24.77, -2.02, -7.54%).
Friday sees earnings from oil giant Chevron (CVX: 63.91, -2.86, -4.28%), consumer product maker Clorox (CLX: 54.23, -1.94, -3.45%), and media industry leader Washington Post Company (WPO: 350.50, -6.00, -1.68%) – another media company. And the Michigan Consumer Sentiment number, another indicator of consumer confidence heading into the holiday season, is also due. http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/market-overview/whats-tap-markets-week-ahead/

 
I think I'm Capitulated, are you?:worried:

hulbert_67x67.gif

MARK HULBERT
Anatomy of a bottom

Commentary: Psychological characteristics of capitulation are largely absent

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:32 p.m. EDT Oct. 21, 2008

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Panic is not the same as capitulation.

That in a nutshell captures much of the confusion over what happened in the stock market earlier this month.
Without a doubt there was panic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Dow Jones Industrial Average
Last: 8,378.95-312.30-3.59%
4:05pm 10/27/2008

$INDU8,378.95, -312.30, -3.6%) dropped more than 25% in less than a month.

But capitulation is something different, as I have learned in recent weeks as I have read more and more about the subject.
Capitulation has a number of distinguishing psychological characteristics, such as investor disgust and exhaustion. Having been burned by the market for so long, investors capitulate by resolving never, ever, to trust the market again.
In the wake of capitulation, therefore, interest in the market declines. Apathy rules.
To be sure, this definition cannot be mechanically measured. It is hard to pinpoint when investors become maximally dejected and apathetic. But my hunch is that we have yet to experience capitulation.
For example, interest in the market is now at an all-time high. Individuals who I never knew were even aware of the stock market, much less that I write a column on investment strategies, are stopping me in the street to ask what's going on.
One illustration of capitulation that I find particularly instructive, even though it is from a pre-Internet era: During bull markets, as well as during bear markets up until capitulation finally occurs, investors turn to the business sections of their morning newspapers to see how much they made or lost the previous day. At times of capitulation, in contrast, investors don't even bother to open the business section at all.
From the perspective of this illustration as well, capitulation is yet to occur: Far from being ignored, business news is now splashed all over the front pages of newspapers' lead sections.
Yet another perspective, this one more quantitative, is provided by a recent study by Ned Davis Research, the institutional research firm. They looked at all panics since 1929, searching for distinct patterns in what occurred immediately in their wakes. Panics were defined as declines in excess of 20% in a short period of time, and of course this last month most definitely qualified. Ten panics prior to the past month made the grade.
The firm found that in, seven out of these 10 cases, the panic low did not mark the final low of the bear market.
This was certainly the case during 2000-2002 bear market, for example. The panic low that occurred near the end of that decline came on July 23, 2002, according to Ned Davis Research, when the Dow closed at 7,702. The final bear market low didn't come until two and one-half months later, on Oct. 9, when the Dow closed at 7,286.
Of course, a sample of just 10 isn't big enough to draw particularly confident conclusions. Nonetheless, based on this sample, odds would appear good that the final low is yet ahead of us.
My guess is that, when that low does finally occur, we'll see be witnessing, and experiencing ourselves, a lot more of the psychological traits associated with capitulation: Exhaustion, disgust, lack of interest, even apathy.
greendot.gif
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={B036DF1F-7F54-42BF-AE82-370A2D0827F1}
 
Looking for the bottom? How long to recover from a Bear Market?:blink:

Recovering from Bear Markets

As investors continue to debate whether the stock market could be near a bottom, data for the last twelve bear markets indicates that, on average, it took the Dow three years to reach its previous highs. Assuming that the last three bear markets could resemble the current economic slowdown, the average jumps to four years.

Identifying the bottom is important because the biggest gains come within the first year of market bottoms -the Dow posted an average gain of 27.82% within one year of the previous bear bottoms.
Birinyi Associates, a stock market research and money management firm, has identified thirteen bear markets since the end of World War II. The average decline for the past twelve bear markets was 28.69%. Based on the lowest close this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index is off by 40.34% from its peak of 14,164.53 on October 9, 2007.
The last time the Dow fell more than 40% from its peak was on December 6, 1974, when the index closed at 577.60, down 45.08%. During that period, it took nearly eight years for the Dow to close above its previous peak. The fastest market recovery was during the bear market from 1981 to 1982, when it took sixty-eight days for the Dow to reach its previous peak.

The following table illustrates the values during the past twelve bear markets and how long it took for the Dow to recover. [more]
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22781974/
 
Now I enjoy those facts - we need even more facts, thanx. I made a lot of money in those 68 days because I was there waiting....
 
Damn CHICKEN!!! rooster.gif

No matter which candidate you support - this is an equal opportunity laugh at America!

Why Did the Chicken Cross the Road?

BARACK OBAMA: The chicken crossed the road because it was time for a change! The chicken wanted change!

JOHN MCCAIN: My friends, that chicken crossed the road because he recognized the need to engage in cooperation and dialogue with all the chickens on the other side of the road.

SARAH PALIN: BECAUSE, PRAISE JESUS, I WAS GONNA SHOOT HIS SORRY LIBERAL ASS OFF FOR BLOCKING MY VIEW OF RUSSIA!

HILLARY CLINTON: When I was First Lady, I personally helped that little chicken to cross the road. This experience makes me uniquely qualified to ensure right from Day One that every chicken in this country gets the chance it deserves to cross the road. But then, this really isn't about me.

GEORGE W. BUSH: We don't really care why the chicken crossed the road. We just want to know if the chicken is on our side of the road, or not. The chicken is either against us, or for us. There is no middle ground here.

DICK CHENEY: Where's my gun?

NANCY PELOSI: Under this administration there have been an alarming number of chickens displaced and I intend to stop it. We must pass a chicken crossing bill before all the chickens become displaced and this IS a crisis!

COLIN POWELL: Now to the left of the screen, you can clearly see the satellite image of the chicken crossing the road.

BILL CLINTON: I did not cross the road with that chicken. What is your definition of crossing?

AL GORE: I invented the chicken.

JOHN KERRY: Although I voted to let the chicken cross the road, I am now against it! It was the wrong road to cross, and I was misled about the chicken's intentions. I am not for it now, and will remain against it.

AL SHARPTON: Why are all the chickens white? We need some black chickens.

DR. PHIL: The problem we have here is that this chicken won't realize that he must first deal with the problem on this side of the road before it goes after the problem on the other side of the road. What we need to do is help him realize how stupid he's acting by not taking on his current problems before adding new problems.

OPRAH: Well, I understand that the chicken is having problems, which is why he wants to cross this road so bad. So instead of having the chicken learn from his mistakes and take falls, which is a part of life, I'm going to give this chicken a car so that he can just drive across the road and not live his life like the rest of the chickens.

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN: We have reason to believe there is a chicken, but we have not yet been allowed to have access to the other side of the road.

NANCY GRACE: That chicken crossed the road because he's guilty! You
Can see it in his eyes and the way he walks.

PAT BUCHANAN: To steal the job of a decent, hardworking American.

MARTHA STEWART: No one called me to warn me which way that chicken was going. I had a standing order at the Farmers Market to sell my eggs when the price dropped to a certain level. No little bird gave me any insider information.

DR SEUSS: Did the chicken cross the road? Did he cross it with a toad? Yes, the chicken crossed the road, but why it crossed I've not been told.

ERNEST HEMINGWAY: To die in the rain, alone.

JERRY FALWELL: Because the chicken was gay! Can't you people see the plain truth? That's why they call it the other side. Yes, my friends, that chicken is gay. And if you eat that chicken, you will become gay, too. I say we boycott all chickens until we sort out this abomination that the liberal media whitewashes with seemingly harmless phrases like the other side. That chicken should not be crossing the road. It's as plain and as simple as that.

GRANDPA: In my day we didn't ask why the chicken crossed the road. Somebody told us the chicken crossed the road, and that was good enough.

BARBARA WALTERS: Isn't that interesting? In a few moments, we will be listening to the chicken tell, for the first time, the heart warming story of how it experienced a serious case of molting, and went on to accomplish its lifelong dream of crossing the road.

ARISTOTLE: It is the nature of chickens to cross the road.

JOHN LENNON: Imagine all the chickens in the world crossing roads together, in peace.

BILL GATES: I have just released eChicken2008, which will not only cross roads, but will lay eggs, file your important documents, and balance your check book. Internet Explorer is an integral part of eChicken2008. This new platform is much more stable and will never crash.

ALBERT EINSTEIN: Did the chicken really cross the road, or did the road move beneath the chicken?

COLONEL SANDERS: Did I miss one?
 
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