New to site - lucky

Sort by newest Sort by date
L

lucky

New member
imported post

Great site it's about time someone did this!

3/25/04 - Call myself lucky....I've been that! Going 100% I from 50/50 C & S tonight. I go strictly by Japan since it's got the greatest weight, it's up for Friday will reap that on Monday. I use DJAI = C and Nasdaq =S. I have not considered fluctuation of
US dollar in my I allocation but I'm sure I should. But 8 to 9 times out of 10 I have been lucky with my above strategy. I'm sure I will learn a better way on this board however for now sticking w/ it. My post and decisions will be based on the above strategy....once again going back to I fund tonight. I hide in F when all else is lost never G. Thoughts? Good luck to all and again love the site.
 
imported post

Hi Lucky. Welcome.

I noticed what I thought were a couple of flaws in your thinking. First of all you'll notice from the following chart that Japan has the second heaviest weighting (but still significant.
countries.gif


Secondly, I think your timing is a little off. I think the I fund's closing price tomorrow will reflect overseas activity from tonight and early tomorrow. It sounds like your allocation change will take place effective Monday. I could be wrong. Somebody who knows more about this than I might be able to clear that up for us. Perhaps you are just lucky.

Lastly you should be watching the S&P 500 to follow the C, the Wilshire 4500 for the S, and the EAFE for the I. Toms keeps them all updated on the homepage of this site.

Continued luck to you

Dave
 
imported post

That's what I thought last July when I took control of my money......LUCKY and better off financially! Welcome LUCKY. Whatever strategy works well for you is good.:)
 
imported post

Thanks do much for your response. You are right my allocation change will be effective Monday but I still think that's when I will get the benefit of the I fund which closes in the early A.M. US time on Friday. I will let you know.

As far as tracking ...as I said I have used what has been easiest for my feable mind to try and comprehend and also easiest to get (CBS Marketwatch). Anyway that part of it has more or less (than perfect) worked for me.

Perhaps I should pay a little more attention to London but still prefer Japan as I feel(for some reason) it is tied to the others that count more than London.

Once again I want to learn and will take all of you suggestions. We are all in this together. BTWanything is more than the people who I work with. They don't have a clue and don't seem to care???? I can't figure that one out for the life of me!!

Peter (Lucky)
 
imported post

SSA- cool. We'll have to get some retirement threads going here and pick your brain.

I still think that the I fund's closing price on Friday reflects activity from earlier that same morning but I could easily be wrong. Maybe Tom or Eukrate or someone else in the know could jump in here and shed some light on this. I will try to take a closer look at it myself. If you are right then you are definitely on to something and I will jumping on board soon.

Dave
 
imported post

I think there is some questionablethinking here on lucky's part as wheels pointed out. We don't mind opinions but you seem to be confusing peoplehere with what you are saying. I recommend you look at some of the information of the website, in particular http://www.tsptalk.com/funds.html. You seem to be watching the wrong funds to make your decisions.

I saw you got pretty defensive in another topic when someone questioned what you were saying. I'd love to hear your opinions but we must call you on some of them, just as you questioned why I would be in the G fund right now. Valid questions.

But let's go back to the I fund. This has been, and still is, causing some confusion for all of us. We are learning as we go along. We have learned that the dollar affects this fund. We know how the counties are weighted.I swore I put up a post here several weeks ago with an article that told us how they determined the EAFE index price at the end of the day but I can't find it. What I read surprised me.

I had always thought that Japan's action on any given night would show up in the following day's I fund gain or loss. This article I read said that once the US markets closed (and the European markets had also closed earlier that day) the folks running the indexhad to submit a quote to the newspapers by something like 5:00 PM that dayto have it show up in the morning's paper. They actual said they had to guess (my word) what the Asian markets would do that night, based on what happened elsewhere in the world that day, andadjust the quote. Of course once they saw what really happened they adjusted the index the following day. I remember this because it went against my "I fund strategy". I thought Japan's reaction to our markets showed up the following day, thus we'd get a double rally. It doesn't appear to be so.

Anyway, I don't know if I explained that very well but I will look for that article and post it if I find it. lucky, we are glad to have you and look forward to your input. But there are a lot of lurkers reading this board who are trying to learn this stuffso make sure you can backup anything you say. And please don't get too defensive if someone calls you on something you say. Just explain your position. It goes on all the time here and we've all learned a ton.

Thanks,
Tom
 
imported post

I have prefaced everything I have said that I may not be right. That's why I posted my thinking to get thoughts. And I have gotton them and value the input. I WANT to learn more just as everyone else. How ever if I don't explain what I have been doing then what's the use? My posts which have only been a couple have been explaining how I have managed my TSP account. It has not been advise on howothers should manage their TSP.

I still would like to hear your logic as to why you went to the G Fund (last Wednesday I believe), you still have not answered that.

It is my thinking and let me try and make this clear, asI very much want to know if I'm wrong. I think that the gains of the I fund are a day behind ie, if the markets close overseas inour early AM and our marketsclose at 4:00 p.m. both the C, S and I gains are not posted till the following day. I have come to this conclusion from watching the TSP ticker on www.govexec.com which tracks these 3 funds daily and watching my balances daily in the TSP.

Therefore, when I saw Japan up on Thursday night I went to 100% I. Japan and our marketsclose during Friday. My move to I is not effective till Monday and that is when Ithink I will get the benefit of moving to the I on Thursday night (I have until 10:00 or 11:00 on Friday to move my TSP but chose to do soon "Thursday night since Japan was having such a big run.

I would very much like to know if I am wrong. That's why I had said I would report on the come Monday. The only reason I became defensivewas the snippy wording of a prior reply I got.
 
imported post

I still would like to hear your logic as to why you went to the G Fund (last Wednesday I believe), you still have not answered that.

lucky - Like you, I jump in and out of funds to take advantage of market situations. I went back to 100% G fund beginning on Friday. Click hereto read thecomments I wrote up lateThursdaynight.

Basically, after being out of the market (G fund) from 3/19 thru 3/23, on Wednesday the 24th,I decided the market was showing signs of being close to a bottom and I was going to start "dripping in".I went 25% S and kept 75% in G. You saw what happened Thursday (Dow up 170 pts). Theindices were still looking a little shaky so Iwent back to G fund,wanting to give the market a few days to digest Thursday's big gains before I went back in. I'm hoping to be close to 100% instocks some time this week.

FYI, I have an archive of all the comments I have written, which I update daily Monday through Friday, on the comments page. If you ever have trouble sleeping, it's a good read :). You can get an idea of what I do with my account.

[/i][/b]It is my thinking and let me try and make this clear, asI very much want to know if I'm wrong. I think that the gains of the I fund are a day behind ie, if the markets close overseas inour early AM and our marketsclose at 4:00 p.m. both the C, S and I gains are not posted till the following day. I have come to this conclusion from watching the TSP ticker on [url]http://www.govexec.com[/url] which tracks these 3 funds daily and watching my balances daily in the TSP.
Therefore, when I saw Japan up on Thursday night I went to 100% I. Japan and our marketsclose during Friday. My move to I is not effective till Monday and that is when Ithink I will get the benefit of moving to the I on Thursday night (I have until 10:00 or 11:00 on Friday to move my TSP but chose to do soon "Thursday night since Japan was having such a big run.

When Japan is up big on a Thursday night, Friday's share prices will take that into consideration. Also, because the U.S. markets were up big this Thursday, as I mentioned in the earlier post, I believe the EAFE index quote on Thursdayis adjusted to anticipate the Asian reactionlater that night. So by Monday, any Asian action on Thursday night has been factored into the price.

What you are doing though is similar to what I talk aboutwith my I fund strategy, but I was doing it a day earlier based on the actionof the U.S. market. I'm thinking by the time you see big gains in Japan, it's too late to take advantage of it.

If anyone thinks what I am saying is inaccurate let me know. As I mentioned we are all still trying to figure outthe complexities of the I fund.

Anyway, anyone who can trigger these types of discussions is OK in my book. Thanks for joining us lucky. :cool:

Tom
 
imported post

Lucky,

Thanks for the great web site... 'govexec.com'. The more sites I can access for information the better. Keep up the discussions, not only are they lively,but I for one am learning a lot... from all parties involved.

Thanks again, and welcome...
:)
Ecurb
 
imported post

Looks like Lucky is lucky after all! The I fund closed at almost a point and a half up today! Nice job!:)
 
imported post

Ironically, Japan was down last night. That was his reason for getting into the I fund. Tonight Japan should reap the rewards. Did you stay in I fund another day lucky?
 
imported post

I'm a new user today. Is being Lucky the name of the game? :D I look forward to learning enough to make informed allocations. Clare
 
imported post

Luck doesn't hurt but making informed decisions and taking control of our funds is what it's about. Welcome, Clare. :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
Time to Upgrade the Forum, which means...
Replies
10
Views
2K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - An inauspicious start to the New Year
Replies
1
Views
258
nasa1974
nasa1974
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Closing in on new all time highs for S&P 500
Replies
0
Views
181
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The historically bearish week gets off to a good start
Replies
0
Views
185
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The PPI and tariff talk sent yields lower and stocks higher
Replies
0
Views
163
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top