Stocks rallied again yesterday as the Dow gained 75-points, while the broader indices saw even larger gains percentage-wise. The I-fund lagged - basically a timing thing - while bonds closed modestly lower.
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We are starting to see some of the leading indices, which had been lagging, come to life this week. The Dow (above) closed off the morning highs while the Nasdaq and small caps of the Russell 2000 both produced gains well over 1%, while rallying into the close near the daily highs.
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The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) closed at an all-time high yesterday but it is also at the top of its recent trading range and will need to breakout soon or risk another push to the bottom of the range. We're back in the situation where the chart ends in the top right hand corner and that's a pretty good indication of a bull market.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The lagging Nasdaq 100 had a big day gaining 1.8% yesterday and while it is not yet testing the recent highs, it did regain the 50 and 20-day EMAs after breaking out of a falling wedge pattern (red.)
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Same for the small caps. It broke above its rising wedge (blue) but there could be a little resistance here if the new descending parallel channel (red) is able to hold, and the only reason I even drew the top line of the channel in there is because it is parallel to the support line created by the two recent lows.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transportation Index made a new closing high yesterday, but like the S&P 500, it finds itself testing the early March highs. The 50-day EMA held strongly last week making this recent dip, so far, nothing more than a healthy pullback. Things could easily change and the overhead resistance can cause problems, but its that upper right hand corner argument again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds are still in their ranges. Waiting, waiting.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The March jobs report is due out on Friday. Estimates are looking for a gain of 195,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 6.6%. We have our monthly jobs report contest going on right now in the forum. More info: Guess the Jobs Report Contest Mar'14
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts and indicators, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Speaking of... the Premium Service are off to a good start in 2014. With the first quarter in the books, the return of all of the services are beating the S&P 500 (C-fund). And look at Intrepid Timer! It's up over 4 times the return of the C-fund. How are you doing?
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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
