My two cents, Tom,

[Guest]

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Tom,

Can probably play here however the month long strong dollar rallywill probably make the trade balance report look rather ugly...which has turned into a major market mover as of late...

Moveover this is not a very healthy chart: The last time we had this look was back in July 2004 (and you know how you did that month).

 

[Mike]

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Actually, I think it looks more like late May - early Juneon that chart. The 20 and 50 day MA's are similar now as then, and the bottom chart is also reflecting a strong similarity.

On pure chart analysis, I'd say there's more room for upward movement - but probably only 2-3 weeks' worth at most (if the previous pattern matches this one).

 

[Guest]

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MarketTimer wrote:

Yeah try to tell them not to BUY into a rally but SELL into any rally and what do they do??? Buy into the rally...goodness me...the human mind....was all most like they forgot January all ready.

I love this board...should be renamed to greed/need and I am a bull, ram me with your horns.

Just read the data and look at the charts and take a step back and say...slowing economy, GDP less then I bonds, raising inflation, the dollar is dropping like a rock and the fed is tightening...I would be scared crapless not I AM STAYING BULLISH, pound chest...grab nads....gold is telling you the story...oil is near $50 a barrel and PEs and fed data is at 25 a barrel....run, run, run.

God bless.

MT

Damn, I really hated be stocks on Friday. Thanks for the heads up MT. Let me know when you get back in stocks, that's when I'll leave............

 

[Guest]

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Mike,

I believe the DMAs will not cross and the candlestick signal on the far left is very bearish moving foward...I would not get excited until the DMAs move above each other here. When you see the DMAs cross again...buy....now you will just be like all the other suckers that buy into this rally.

Hindsight it great but for foresite...use the charts. That NASDAQ chart looks really bad from on a technical view...really bad.

Have a great day!

MT

 

[Guest]

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tsptorture wrote:

MT
Damn, I really hated be stocks on Friday. Thanks for the heads up MT. Let me know when you get back in stocks, that's when I'll leave............

Torture if you look at what happened in 2000 you will see the same thing happened...you should be counting your blessing that the market has recovered for you to exit.

I wish you all the best.

You have to do what you think is correct for you...however the econonic data and charts are telling me what to do...the noise of "the market rallied becauseof the hope thefed will slow" does not effect me in the last...because hope does not trump data and charts.

MT

 

[Mike]

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Charting isn't my strong suit.

Is there a reason why you are focusing on this instead of the S&P? Is this considered a "trend setter" for the overall market?

I see the 50 and 20 both have downward trends right now... we'll know in the next two weeks or so if the 20 has bottomed and is going to reverse course or continue on down...

Of course as I said previously, I'm only making I fund plays in the near term - waiting to see a top on the dollar rally.

 

[Guest]

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Mike,

So goes the NASDAQ so goes the S&P...so I focus on the NASDAQ...the concern is the sharp downward slope of under DMA (just like in July) that we are seeing now...

I fund is a bargain right now...what sucks is having Japan as the largest holding...but what can ya do?

That is the problem with TSP funds...if the NASDAQ sucks then the I fund will suck...the NASDAQ will also drag down the I fund...

I have found if you can figure out the NASDAQ you can nail the other two stock funds...

F fund is a disaster waiting to happen...G fund you do not keep with true inflation and that forces you to go long in stocks...that is my concern with social security reform...they will be TSP funds (managed by a foreign company no less).

Good luck. Great question...but I believe you know more then what you are letting on.

MT

 

[Mike]

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I wanted to confirm my own theory on that.

At $15.30ish, I don't see the I fund as a bargain. I look to buy it in the $15-$15.10 range, which is roughly where a dollar index move to 87 would put it (w/ foreign markets being relatively flat in the meantime... no guarantee of that). With my buys at $15.09 and $15.06, I'll gladly take a ~$15.30 selling price given what the market has been through in the past month. Whether or not I can duplicate this on future movesremains to be seen.

I still don't think we'll see a total flameout here - but "gradual decline within a trading range" is something I am definitely anticipating over the coming months (with a late year surge that'll take us back into a flat to minor positive territory for the year, hopefully). I'll cautiously play these bounces as best I can. I just hope the dollar tops out at a time that corresponds fairly well with a short-term bottom, so I can make money on the movement that comes after... heh.

 

[tsptalk]

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MarketTimer wrote:

Tom,

Can probably play here however the month long strong dollar rallywill probably make the trade balance report look rather ugly...which has turned into a major market mover as of late...

Moveover this is not a very healthy chart: The last time we had this look was back in July 2004 (and you know how you did that month).

That's my thinking. Make a long play at the oversold conditions trying to pick up a rally but stay cautious and watch the support area. Right now we are actually overbought.

Playing the short term moves is tough so most ofus novicesshould concentrate on the longer term. You make a convincing argument for a longer term bear, I just haven't seen it yet, but I can be swayed when that support starts giving way or if we can't make a new high in the weeks ahead.

I'm not bullish or bearish right now. Just trading.

Good luck!

 

[Guest]

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Tom,

Great. I am glad we are having a health conversation.

What I do not want see people the people on this boarddo is buy into the insider selling. This is 2000 all over again...the greedy bastards are tv saying ALL IS GREAT, ECONOMY IS GREAT...then you see the same day their were pounding their chests they were dumping 1-3% of their holdings...

REMEMBER, REMEMBER. The expensing of stock options starts on 1 JUNE 2005....do you not think they sat down in a little overpiced room and said "WE NEED TO ENSURE WE TAKE AS MUCH OF OURSTOCK OPTIONS PRIOR TO 1 JUNE AS WE CAN"???? Ding, ding...they are going to take all the stock options they can because moving forward stock options will totally go away - sort of like 401Ks....first they did not match...now they are going away...next thing to go away will be options and they do not want to be left holding a couple mil worth...they are dumping hands over fist.

If they get the suckers buying into this then they will be dumping more shares. Which will cause the downturn to be much greater and much faster...

God bless. The only insider you need is me :^. Because I am going to ta ya like they think and like it is.

MT