My Hands Are Tied

[Guest]

imported post

Come on Tom, Spank the Monkey!

You do very well with your allocation changes and provide excellent market commentary. You are priceless.

Do not worry big bear is on the way. One of the next two fed hikes will set it off, I have all confidence in Mr Bubbles wrecking the economy (again).

 

[azanon]

imported post

If you look at this site as just a percentage gain or loss, then you don't fullyget it. If I started to post the thank you emails I get everyday from people who not long ago knew virtually nothing about savings and investing, and are now taking charge of their retirements and TSPaccounts whether by putting in the max %, getting out of hiding in the G fund when appropriate, oreven just knowing they can move their money around, you'd see that none of them say "you only gained 10% last year?"

I pointed out somewhere in the past just that very thing. I specifically said the most valuable thing at this website is your long term outlook with adjustments for conservative, moderage, and aggresive. If you just did that every year, and someone chose one of those allocations, they'd be far better off than they used to be before.

Also, as you pointed out, most do dump their monies in G (or leave it at the default setting which is G), and you certainly support changing that.

My point is i'm not saying you're not doing a valuable service for everyone. I'm just saying the meat of the site (the daily timing article) I disagree with simply because I dont think anyone can accurately predict the market on a weekly basis (big deal, thousands in both camps right?). I believed that before you started this site, so that belief certainly isn't anything personal towards you. And so far..... you're providing no reason why I should think otherwise.

(note) I dont even mean that last sentence as an insult. I own at least 2-3 mutual funds that have underperformed the S&P500 for the past 5 years. But i still own them because I believe their time is yet to come.

 

[azanon]

imported post

Do not worry big bear is on the way. One of the next two fed hikes will set it off, I have all confidence in Mr Bubbles wrecking the economy (again).

I doubt Tom would agree with that. Personally, I think the market will be tremendous for the next 3 years on the heels of the market recoveryand with the boomers pumping funds into the market as they despirately try to get their retirement accounts in a position to be able to retire by 2010+. Lets see what happens.

 

[Guest]

imported post

azanon wrote:

Personally, I think the market will be tremendous for the next 3 years on the heels of the market recoveryand with the boomers pumping funds into the market as they despirately try to get their retirement accounts in a position to be able to retire by 2010+.

Didyou listen to greenie say 2008 there will be more people in retirement then working, Pres says we got a "crisis" starting 2008. Hmm...that would mean there is more money coming OUT (hey I am retired need to live NOT PUMP MORE MONEY IN THE MARKET) then in. The market does not fare to well when the money is coming OUT. At least based on my "limited" research on this subject.

Just my .02.

Good luck.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Also, now that I am started..that is why the bond yield are not moving...money is pouring into bonds and away from stocks. Lots of people start to retire in the next three years.

Inflation, high oil, fed tightening, options being expenses, slowing earnings, higher commodities prices - yes I agree the market is just going to scream the next three years...however the screaming will be on the way down.

Just my .02.

 

[cowboy]

imported post

I just have to ask you Dubious? Didn't you state that Greenie doesn't know squat. Now your listening and quotinghim. My opinion is forget about greenie, what he said today, you'll forget tomorrow! Please don't take this the wrong way as I do listen to you. By the way give me the next down turn date like you did in December. Or maybe you have and I missed it.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Greenie is correct about the 2008 data.

It is just a matter of birth tables and retirement dates. That is the Pres largest talking point. Baby boomers start to retire 2008. However with M&A that is going to pick up much faster by "early retirements".

Deception works great when their is a little truth thrown in. Because you can say the numbers do not lie. Yes that is correct. So on the other hand you can not say the econmony looks great...because moving forward you have a massive pile of crap in the road. If the budget is 437B + 82B (iraq) + 72B (medicare) + 1.2T (private accounts) over revenue NOW, how much is it going to be over in 2007? :h

Like I have said, People are not having children anymore because IT IS TO expensive to have them. Probably your grandmother did not need to work and her family got along fine. Now both adults are working full time in the household to get by. That is because the middle class is getting squeeze. You just do not see it.

I believe the next downturn starts around the third week of March 2005. Mr Bubbles needed the long term rates to go up today. He did not get the job done, next stop inversion to the yield curve. Inflation is here and the fed is worried and so am I.

Of course, I am a idiot so please make your own decisions. Just my .02. If you ask my opionion then be ready for it :u. I will be happy to hear your comments and your side also.

 

[cowboy]

imported post

Dr_Dubious wrote:

Greenie is correct about the 2008 data.

It is just a matter of birth tables and retirement dates. That is the Pres largest talking point. Baby boomers start to retire 2008. However with M&A that is going to pick up much faster by "early retirements".

Deception works great when their is a little truth thrown in. Because you can say the numbers do not lie. Yes that is correct. So on the other hand you can not say the econmony looks great...because moving forward you have a massive pile of crap in the road. If the budget is 437B + 82B (iraq) + 72B (medicare) + 1.2T (private accounts) over revenue NOW, how much is it going to be over in 2007? :h

Like I have said, People are not having children anymore because IT IS TO expensive to have them. Probably your grandmother did not need to work and her family got along fine. Now both adults are working full time in the household to get by. That is because the middle class is getting squeeze. You just do not see it.

I believe the next downturn starts around the third week of March 2005. Mr Bubbles needed the long term rates to go up today. He did not get the job done, next stop inversion to the yield curve. Inflation is here and the fed is worried and so am I.

Of course, I am a idiot so please make your own decisions. Just my .02. If you ask my opionion then be ready for it :u. I will be happy to hear your comments and your side also.

My opinion is this has been going on for the past 20 years, so it is old news. I will watch the 3rd week of March as you say and thanks for letting me know when you think the next down turn is. Do you have a day I should look out for. Just between two idiots, one of us has to know something. I like your comment on families having children because there is a lot of truth to it. You want to know where the biggest growth in population is at in the USA. It's the Indian reservations. The US government paysnative peopleto have kids.Hint: check into it, money to be made. It all comes down to everyone wants to stop inflation but you don't want to take a hit in the process.

 

[Guest]

imported post

cowboy wrote:

I will watch the 3rd week of March as you say and thanks for letting me know when you think the next down turn is.

Just for clarification that is the 3rd full week of March which starts March 21...not to go out on a limb or anything .

However want to see the action moving forward.

 

[cowboy]

imported post

Gotchya Doc! I'll keep an eye out for that March date as your usually good on that and in between I'll see if I can't pick up some spare change.

 

[Guest]

imported post

cowboy wrote:

Gotchya Doc! I'll keep an eye out for that March date as your usually good on that and in between I'll see if I can't pick up some spare change.

I will PM you updates on this matter.

Ride em!

 

[Gritz]

imported post

Hey Tom, realize this is a bit late from your original post, but I was doing a search on donating to the site and came across this post. For what it's worth from a newbie to your site, I'd gladly chip in to to help defray any costs and reimburse you for your time and efforts. The site works well and your insight is informative and well based. You have quite a following from what I read and many well versed financiers, which makes it an easy place for myself to come see many different perspectives and learn along the way.

.02 - Lurking for free, but pay for selected services..charts, research, forum participation, alerts, etc.

Feel like all I do is take something away from all that is offered here and would gladly give some back (little paypal on its way).Didn't see any further update onthis thread about your work situation, but then again, my wife feels I can't find anything and has a rule when I can't find something that I have to at least move two things before saying "can't find"..guess I should look at 2 more threads. Hope all isworking out for you;also helps me understand your reply tomy email aboutcalling from the art gallery, had to think for awhile about "fed art galleries". If there is any way of helping you out please feel free to contact me. As Rod aptly states, God Bless.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Gritz wrote:

Feel like all I do is take something away from all that is offered here and would gladly give some back (little paypal on its way).Didn't see any further update onthis thread about your work situation, but then again, my wife feels I can't find anything and has a rule when I can't find something that I have to at least move two things before saying "can't find"..guess I should look at 2 more threads. Hope all isworking out for you;also helps me understand your reply tomy email aboutcalling from the art gallery, had to think for awhile about "fed art galleries". If there is any way of helping you out please feel free to contact me. As Rod aptly states, God Bless.

Thanks Gritz. I did receive your PayPal donation and it was quite generous. I really appreciate it.

As a follow up, I did end up getting my suspension reduced to one week and I used the time to go to Park City with some friends last month. I needed the break so it worked out OK. I just missed a week's pay and learned a lesson. All is well and I'll survive. I just wish I could spend more time in the a.m. discussing strategies with everyone. But now I have to wait until after work. Makes things a little tougher.

Thanks again,
Tom

 

[Shaggy]

imported post

Hey Tom I know I'm a little late on this voting thing but I don't know if you noticed how many people posted for the first or second time in response tou your Fee question. Also notice how many members are " only been a member for two or three weeks". Might want to wait just a little while, because it seems membership is growing fast. I know I would pay.