Moves Month to Month Based Upon History

[gunyvw]

who (if anyone) is reallocating their accounts using history...
neg. months vs pos. ones...
if so what time frame and which months are you using

it appears that in 18 years... (could 5 years be better since 2000?)

first Q will give up 2 neg months on ave. ----- JAN, MAR
second Q will give up 1 ------ JUNE
third Q 2 ------- JULY, SEPT
fourth all in for the C fund and above

also all Stock funds C S I fund move in sync. when one is neg they are all neg.
just my little novice observation... any help or direction here would be appreciated

 

[Birchtree]

Not always in tandem

gunyvw,

During the bubble years of the late 1990s, foreign markets peaked and declined, while the U.S. indexes kept rising. Now, investors have shifted back toward foreign markets, especially Asian ones. Those markets have rebounded strongly, leaving overall indexes of foreign markets at recoed highs.

Dennis

 

[Wizard]

Record high???????????

 

[Wizard]

Here is what a triple top looks like:

 

[mlk_man]

Wizard, have you posted here under a different name before?

 

[roguewave]

who (if anyone) is reallocating their accounts using history...
neg. months vs pos. ones...
if so what time frame and which months are you using

it appears that in 18 years... (could 5 years be better since 2000?)

first Q will give up 2 neg months on ave. ----- JAN, MAR
second Q will give up 1 ------ JUNE
third Q 2 ------- JULY, SEPT
fourth all in for the C fund and above

also all Stock funds C S I fund move in sync. when one is neg they are all neg.
just my little novice observation... any help or direction here would be appreciated

Here's five years of data to help in your analysis.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=EFA&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=^RUT&c=^GSPC&c=^DJI

 

[gunyvw]

thanks guys for the input
i did 2 things here...

first- i compiled -18 yrs of ALL neg. closure-

FIRST Q
2 months neg.
JAN-MARCH... *FEB

SECOND Q
1 month
JUNE... *APRIL

THIRD Q
3 months
JULY-AUG-SEPT

FORTH Q
NONE... *OCT

*months that are close but under the avg.

second - CSi fund closure(s) that where below 1 point where factored (the close to neutral or pos. but no cigar)


FIRST Q
JAN-becomes avg.

SECOND Q
JUNE-becomes avg.

THIRD Q
JULY-becomes avg.

FORTH Q
OCT-falls well below the avg.

none of which is high science but an interesting pattern. i will watch over the next few months to make observation and adjustments.
...of course all current enviromental factors always apply