Monday mid-Day Analysis

Well, the S&P 500 hit my upside target for this rally, which was 1275. I also mentioned that the target could be a moving target as we could see resistance when the S&P gets 125-points above the 200-day EMA, which is moving up every day, and it is currently 1152, so 1277 is the target, and this morning we've hit 1276.

I should sell, but I am going for another day (famous last words) since momentum is still strong and the 2nd trading day in January also has a strong historical bias. There's a lot of money flowing into the market at the first of the year, so I don't want to step aside until Wednesday.

Even then, getting 100% out of stocks may not be smart in an environment like this, but you can do it if you are nimble and are willing to jump in on the next dip.

Good luck!

 

[JTH]

I had 1275 as a target too, but the timeline was way off due to the flat trading. My next targets are 1287, 1300, 1330. I'm up from my last position, and by the time I exit I'll be up from that point, maybe not YTD, but hey up is up.

 

[tsptalk]

By target, I meant peak.

At least before another consolidation to let the 200-day EMA catch up.

 

[JTH]

Off the march bottom, SPX was 312.46 below the 200 EMA, following this logic gives us an upside target of 1467

 

[tsptalk]

Huh? I see 125-points as the current "max" stretch for the S&P on the upside. The downside is a different monster.

 

[clester]

I wouldn't be surprised if this was the short term high. Rsi is signaling it as well. Perhaps you're right Tom and this is a head fake.

 

[JTH]

Yes I was referring to the downside, going with the whole every reaction has an opposite & = reaction. I myself don't care where the tops is, so long as I get out before we get to the bottom...

 

[Bubba]

You guys a way technical for me, my gut tells me based on old trends and projections but it is so funny how politics moves the market.