It was a mixed day on Wall Street on Friday as the Dow lost 56-points and the S&P 500 was down 0.14%, but the broader Nasdaq, Wilshire 4500 (small caps), and the Dow Transportation indices all ended the day with gains, so the headlines were a little more negative than the actual results.
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The I-fund on the other hand, was pounded on Friday as the dollar spiked up, but closed off the highs, so we could see some payback in today's I-fund price.
For the week, the I-fund, which has led the TSP funds this year, lost 1.7% allowing the S-fund to get much closer. The S-fund had a big day on Friday and was the only stock fund to end the week with a gain.
The SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) fell below the 50-day EMA last week and has closed below it for two days now. That's not enough to get us running since we look for 3 to 5 days. It was a bit of a wake up call when the longer-term rising support line was taken out on Friday, but it closed right near that line so we'll see if that means buyers are willing to step up at this level.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The weekly chart of the S&P 500 shows that the index is still within the long-term rising trading channel, but it is flirting with some inner support for the short-term (dashed line.) This chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends near the top right, so this is a bull market without a doubt, so we should give the bullish side the benefit of the doubt until that changes.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) was up about a half of a percent on Friday, bucking the weakness in the S&P 500. The kangaroo tail reversal looks promising to start this week, particularly since if broke but recaptured the 50-day EMA, which means buyers were happy to buy at that level..
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq also posted a positive reversal day gaining a modest 0.18% on the day. This chart looks pretty good considering the mood of investors lately.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index hit resistance at the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern last week. After hitting the initial H&S downside target it rebounded and has since created what could be a bull flag, but watch that 8550 level. We have to assume this is still bearish but if it can break back above the neckline near the 8850 - 8600 area where the 200-day EMA is, it could change everything.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) plummeted on Friday as the dollar spiked after the jobs report and the Greece debt situation. There are two open gaps above (green) and one small one below that would get filled if the 200-day EMA gets tested.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar gapped up on Friday and after it filled a few gaps (blue) recently, the attention goes to the open gaps (red), which are both on the downside - and if they can get filled it might help the I-fund rebound from last week's losses.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (bonds / F-fund) is in trouble and I would think the only reason to use the F-fund is for oversold bounces. Otherwise, the top may be in for a while.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The I-fund on the other hand, was pounded on Friday as the dollar spiked up, but closed off the highs, so we could see some payback in today's I-fund price.
For the week, the I-fund, which has led the TSP funds this year, lost 1.7% allowing the S-fund to get much closer. The S-fund had a big day on Friday and was the only stock fund to end the week with a gain.
The SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) fell below the 50-day EMA last week and has closed below it for two days now. That's not enough to get us running since we look for 3 to 5 days. It was a bit of a wake up call when the longer-term rising support line was taken out on Friday, but it closed right near that line so we'll see if that means buyers are willing to step up at this level.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The weekly chart of the S&P 500 shows that the index is still within the long-term rising trading channel, but it is flirting with some inner support for the short-term (dashed line.) This chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends near the top right, so this is a bull market without a doubt, so we should give the bullish side the benefit of the doubt until that changes.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) was up about a half of a percent on Friday, bucking the weakness in the S&P 500. The kangaroo tail reversal looks promising to start this week, particularly since if broke but recaptured the 50-day EMA, which means buyers were happy to buy at that level..
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq also posted a positive reversal day gaining a modest 0.18% on the day. This chart looks pretty good considering the mood of investors lately.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index hit resistance at the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern last week. After hitting the initial H&S downside target it rebounded and has since created what could be a bull flag, but watch that 8550 level. We have to assume this is still bearish but if it can break back above the neckline near the 8850 - 8600 area where the 200-day EMA is, it could change everything.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) plummeted on Friday as the dollar spiked after the jobs report and the Greece debt situation. There are two open gaps above (green) and one small one below that would get filled if the 200-day EMA gets tested.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar gapped up on Friday and after it filled a few gaps (blue) recently, the attention goes to the open gaps (red), which are both on the downside - and if they can get filled it might help the I-fund rebound from last week's losses.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (bonds / F-fund) is in trouble and I would think the only reason to use the F-fund is for oversold bounces. Otherwise, the top may be in for a while.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
