After a weak open, stocks bounced back but were mixed on Tuesday with the Dow adding a healthy 108-points to Monday's big gains. The S&P 500 had a solid day as well, but the Nasdaq was flat, up less than 1 point, and and the small caps were actually down fairly sharply on the day so investors were being selective. Trade and the G-20 summit are the main focus right now, and investors are listening for clues all day long.
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The S&P 500 gained 0.33%, another good day, and closed near the highs of the day, but it peaked near the top of its open gap and short-term resistance line. This is the immediate technical concern for this index, but any big news out of the G-20 could change the technical picture in a hurry.
Apple has been a volatile stock lately and under-performing badly. It was down yesterday and that was a main reason why the Nasdaq couldn't rally, and may have negatively impacted the small caps since many small companies feed off of Apple. So, I'm keeping a close eye on this chart because for the last several years, as goes Apple, so goes the market. There are a couple of gaps, one above and another below, that may be targets for bulls and the bears, whichever has more teeth.
We talked about the S&P 500 / C-fund above and it's that filled gap and the descending resistance line that I am watching closely. It hasn't been a big move up, but at least the bleeding stopped before making a lower low. But a possible bear flag and a 2 - 3 day rally in a bearish market can get the bears salivating again.
The DWCPF (S-fund) got hit hard on Tuesday and it may have had to do with Apple, but also that 20-day EMA can be a resistance point when trading below the 50 and 200-day EMAs. It already got the 50 / 200 day EMA crossover (or death cross, as some call it), oversold bounce earlier this month.
The Dow Transportation Index is still acting a little perky and that could be because of the tremendous drop in oil prices recently, and investors may see that as a potential boost to the bottom line for companies like UPS, FedEx, and the airlines.
After staving off a breakdown to a lower low last week, the Nasdaq is still a little vulnerable here. It got its "death cross" just last week so this little rally could be its oversold crossover bounce.
The EAFE Index / I-fund was down slightly as the dollar rallied for a third straight day. We've been saying this for a long time, but this chart is broken and in bear market territory so I expect bearish results. That doesn't mean it will be down everyday, but resistance lines could prove trouble.
The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was up slightly remaining above that stubborn 50-day EMA, but below the top of its trading channel. 104.60 and 104.80 seem to be the key areas to watch in the short-term.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The S&P 500 gained 0.33%, another good day, and closed near the highs of the day, but it peaked near the top of its open gap and short-term resistance line. This is the immediate technical concern for this index, but any big news out of the G-20 could change the technical picture in a hurry.
Apple has been a volatile stock lately and under-performing badly. It was down yesterday and that was a main reason why the Nasdaq couldn't rally, and may have negatively impacted the small caps since many small companies feed off of Apple. So, I'm keeping a close eye on this chart because for the last several years, as goes Apple, so goes the market. There are a couple of gaps, one above and another below, that may be targets for bulls and the bears, whichever has more teeth.
We talked about the S&P 500 / C-fund above and it's that filled gap and the descending resistance line that I am watching closely. It hasn't been a big move up, but at least the bleeding stopped before making a lower low. But a possible bear flag and a 2 - 3 day rally in a bearish market can get the bears salivating again.
The DWCPF (S-fund) got hit hard on Tuesday and it may have had to do with Apple, but also that 20-day EMA can be a resistance point when trading below the 50 and 200-day EMAs. It already got the 50 / 200 day EMA crossover (or death cross, as some call it), oversold bounce earlier this month.
The Dow Transportation Index is still acting a little perky and that could be because of the tremendous drop in oil prices recently, and investors may see that as a potential boost to the bottom line for companies like UPS, FedEx, and the airlines.
After staving off a breakdown to a lower low last week, the Nasdaq is still a little vulnerable here. It got its "death cross" just last week so this little rally could be its oversold crossover bounce.
The EAFE Index / I-fund was down slightly as the dollar rallied for a third straight day. We've been saying this for a long time, but this chart is broken and in bear market territory so I expect bearish results. That doesn't mean it will be down everyday, but resistance lines could prove trouble.
The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was up slightly remaining above that stubborn 50-day EMA, but below the top of its trading channel. 104.60 and 104.80 seem to be the key areas to watch in the short-term.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
