2/20/13
Stocks moved above some key levels yesterday with the Dow closing above 14,000, the Transportation Index closing above 6000, and the S&P 500 breaking above 1525 and the top of its longer-term trading channel. The Dow gained 54-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0178%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.75%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.74%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The Dow opened higher but basically traded sideways the rest of the day, staying in a very tight 20-point trading range.
The S&P 500 actually moved higher all day as the sellers must have still been celebrating the holiday.
The S&P 500 took out my predicted high of1525, closing near 1531 after the 0.7% gain.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 11-point gain took out the rising resistance line of the intermediate-term ascending trading channel. This is certainly a sign of strength, but like any breakout (or breakdown) I like to give it 3 to 5 days to confirm the move.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow took out the 14,000 level again, closing above it for the second time in 5 days, and is now about 163-points of its 2007 all-time high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation index closed at new highs and above 6000 for the first time ever.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
So we saw some milestones reached already this week, and momentum is still on the bulls' side. As I said many times, fighting the trend, especially a strong one, is not usually the best strategy, but sometimes you have to weight the risk / reward and act rather than get too greedy.
I'm tipping my hat to those have had the courage to stick this out. They are being rewarded and that is how big money can be made. But I hope their courage doesn't get them into too much trouble when things change. It doesn't feel like it will ever change, but it always does. But when? I saw a "Black Swan" indicator yesterday that looked interesting showing that the chances of a black swan type sell-off is rising fast and likely to appear within the next 30 days. We'll see.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks moved above some key levels yesterday with the Dow closing above 14,000, the Transportation Index closing above 6000, and the S&P 500 breaking above 1525 and the top of its longer-term trading channel. The Dow gained 54-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0178%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.75%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.74%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The Dow opened higher but basically traded sideways the rest of the day, staying in a very tight 20-point trading range.
The S&P 500 actually moved higher all day as the sellers must have still been celebrating the holiday.
The S&P 500 took out my predicted high of1525, closing near 1531 after the 0.7% gain.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 11-point gain took out the rising resistance line of the intermediate-term ascending trading channel. This is certainly a sign of strength, but like any breakout (or breakdown) I like to give it 3 to 5 days to confirm the move.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow took out the 14,000 level again, closing above it for the second time in 5 days, and is now about 163-points of its 2007 all-time high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation index closed at new highs and above 6000 for the first time ever.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
So we saw some milestones reached already this week, and momentum is still on the bulls' side. As I said many times, fighting the trend, especially a strong one, is not usually the best strategy, but sometimes you have to weight the risk / reward and act rather than get too greedy.
I'm tipping my hat to those have had the courage to stick this out. They are being rewarded and that is how big money can be made. But I hope their courage doesn't get them into too much trouble when things change. It doesn't feel like it will ever change, but it always does. But when? I saw a "Black Swan" indicator yesterday that looked interesting showing that the chances of a black swan type sell-off is rising fast and likely to appear within the next 30 days. We'll see.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
