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Merlin Account talk
- Thread starter merlin
- Start date
southbeachrat
Member
As I said in another post.. The TSP limitations may help teach me patience. I definitely have a tendency to overtrade at times. I get antsy just watching and waiting. The market spends most of it's time moving sideways in a trading range. You don't have to be in stocks all the time. Look at the good side- You are missing the downtrend. It's still possible for us to hop on when the trends changes back to the upside. We may not catch the initial moves, but you can still hop on the train.
The trick is figuring out when it is time get on the train..
The trick is figuring out when it is time get on the train..
merlin
Member
As I said in another post.. The TSP limitations may help teach me patience. I definitely have a tendency to overtrade at times. I get antsy just watching and waiting. The market spends most of it's time moving sideways in a trading range. You don't have to be in stocks all the time. Look at the good side- You are missing the downtrend. It's still possible for us to hop on when the trends changes back to the upside. We may not catch the initial moves, but you can still hop on the train.
The trick is figuring out when it is time get on the train..
I agree 100% Southbeachrat 100%. Our time will come.
alevin
Well-known member
I agree 100% Southbeachrat 100%. Our time will come.
Our time will come. I spent the weekend figuring out when that will be. It's coming up, maybe later this week, maybe not.
Meanwhile, staying on the sidelines for the time being based on what I'm looking at chartwise (speaks the chart rookie:laugh:.)
ezmoney
Member
Yes we all have a level of loss we will tolerate but after that; it is to conserve for me. I would rather take a short rally here and there and add to my profit margin rather than getting in taking all that loss waiting for the bounce back. I'll stay in the safety of the G,F and catch a small gain rather than staying in the market waiting to catch that bounce while lossing a chunk just to get that bounce. On certain occasions I will pop back in the market like I did a few days ago. Made a nice chunk then ran back to safety. For as long as it takes. I earned it I plan on keeping it and the market would like to get it back.
merlin
Member
I wasn't able to benefit from the two days but I'm in today 25C and 25S. Could not place my transfer into the automated tracker. Didn't have access to a computer. Hopefully I will pick up a few pennies today. Keep the faith. Looking into the future, the market may continue up but Uncle Ben doesn't give the market the other .50 it will go back down. Just my opinion. 
merlin
Member
I've been trying to get myself back into the swing of things but just can't get the right feel for the game. I guess my retirement 7 months ago just got a little to good and the mind doesn't want to flow. I've been in the G fund since early 2008. Jumped out once in April 09 made a little money but just can't get the mood to swing in the right direction. I have not figured this sh_t out. Trying to figure out when to jump back in. Any ideas? Where is the bottom? Is this it?
merlin
Member
Investor's Corner: Be On Guard During Earnings Season
Tried and tested buy and sell rules will protect you from potholes and sudden dips. But, once in a while, a chasm can open beneath your stock.
You're suddenly helpless as you watch an after-hours price that's 10 points below the close.
That almost never happens. But that may not be good enough for you.
And, with earnings season getting under way, when most of these nasty surprises appear, the risk is higher than usual that you could find yourself in a Wile E. Coyote situation: having run off a cliff. His eyes look at you so sadly before he plunges into something that looks like the Grand Canyon.
Years ago, these shockers appeared far less often than they do these days.
Back then, earnings results -- good or bad -- could be leaked, hinted at or even traded upon by insiders. By the time the news came out officially, the stock's price and volume action could suggest what you could expect.
You can thank Regulation FD for the tight lips that can sink your ships. As massive corporate scandals -- including Enron's -- were taking shape in 2000, the Securities and Exchange Commission adopted this new rule.
Thereafter, when a publicly owned company releases any information, it must do so in a way that the general public has access to it at the same time as institutional investors and analysts.
For good or ill, there would be no more clues or hints. Without advance signals, the market would pile in or out of stocks in greater force once results came out.
Protect yourself. Knowing you're on treacherous ground -- earnings season -- is half the battle.
If you're seriously considering a stock for your portfolio, first see when the company is slated to report. Can you possibly wait for that release before you buy the stock?
The risk, of course, is that the news will be good, and the stock will race and quickly become extended.
You should try to buy as close as possible to the ideal buy point, and no more than 5% from there.
But if the stock is already, say, 3% past the trigger, another 8% seems a bit much. You might end up watching that stock fly away without you.
On the other hand, you'd be glad to pass on buying a stock hours before the company says it earned 77 cents a share -- when the market was expecting $1.
Now let's look at a stock you already own as its earnings report nears. The stock is acting well and you want to hold on. You have to be ready to sell.
By unloading part of your position, you unload some of the bad-surprise risk. If the stock soars, you have to scramble if you want to buy back the shares you sold.
Crocs , the maker of those comfortable, funny-looking and cheap shoes, was a market star through much of 2006 and 2007. With great sales and profit growth, the stock soared 390% from a 2006 breakout to its peak. The stock showed a near-perfect respect for its 10-week moving average along the way.
Its end came on Halloween 2007. A quarterly report released after the close held bad news.
But having an open stop order anywhere near the session's close would not have protected you. Crocs gapped down the next morning almost 20 points -- a shocking 26% loss. And that was the high of the day.
Yes, these disasters don't happen often, but they do happen.
Try out IBD Investing Tools absolutely FREE with a 2-Week FREE trial of investors.co
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- Donald H. Gold
- On 7:37 pm EDT, Thursday October 8, 2009
- Buzz up! 0
Tried and tested buy and sell rules will protect you from potholes and sudden dips. But, once in a while, a chasm can open beneath your stock.
You're suddenly helpless as you watch an after-hours price that's 10 points below the close.
That almost never happens. But that may not be good enough for you.
And, with earnings season getting under way, when most of these nasty surprises appear, the risk is higher than usual that you could find yourself in a Wile E. Coyote situation: having run off a cliff. His eyes look at you so sadly before he plunges into something that looks like the Grand Canyon.
Years ago, these shockers appeared far less often than they do these days.
Back then, earnings results -- good or bad -- could be leaked, hinted at or even traded upon by insiders. By the time the news came out officially, the stock's price and volume action could suggest what you could expect.
You can thank Regulation FD for the tight lips that can sink your ships. As massive corporate scandals -- including Enron's -- were taking shape in 2000, the Securities and Exchange Commission adopted this new rule.
Thereafter, when a publicly owned company releases any information, it must do so in a way that the general public has access to it at the same time as institutional investors and analysts.
For good or ill, there would be no more clues or hints. Without advance signals, the market would pile in or out of stocks in greater force once results came out.
Protect yourself. Knowing you're on treacherous ground -- earnings season -- is half the battle.
If you're seriously considering a stock for your portfolio, first see when the company is slated to report. Can you possibly wait for that release before you buy the stock?
The risk, of course, is that the news will be good, and the stock will race and quickly become extended.
You should try to buy as close as possible to the ideal buy point, and no more than 5% from there.
But if the stock is already, say, 3% past the trigger, another 8% seems a bit much. You might end up watching that stock fly away without you.
On the other hand, you'd be glad to pass on buying a stock hours before the company says it earned 77 cents a share -- when the market was expecting $1.
Now let's look at a stock you already own as its earnings report nears. The stock is acting well and you want to hold on. You have to be ready to sell.
By unloading part of your position, you unload some of the bad-surprise risk. If the stock soars, you have to scramble if you want to buy back the shares you sold.
Crocs , the maker of those comfortable, funny-looking and cheap shoes, was a market star through much of 2006 and 2007. With great sales and profit growth, the stock soared 390% from a 2006 breakout to its peak. The stock showed a near-perfect respect for its 10-week moving average along the way.
Its end came on Halloween 2007. A quarterly report released after the close held bad news.
But having an open stop order anywhere near the session's close would not have protected you. Crocs gapped down the next morning almost 20 points -- a shocking 26% loss. And that was the high of the day.
Yes, these disasters don't happen often, but they do happen.
Try out IBD Investing Tools absolutely FREE with a 2-Week FREE trial of investors.co
[SIZE=-2]Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy - Terms of Service[/SIZE]
merlin
Member
http://finance.yahoo.com/search
Thursday, October 15, 2009, 12:30AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 9 hrs..
Don't Trust Dow 10,000
by Chris Isidore
Wednesday, October 14, 2009provided by
The stock market is supposed to be a leading indicator, predicting what happens next. But the rally doesn't mean the nation's economic woes are over.
As the Dow closed above 10,000 for the first time in more than a year Wednesday, economists cautioned that the blue-chip average shouldn't be seen as giving a green light to the economy.
The stock market is what is known as a leading economic indicator, as investors place bets on how strong they believe company results and the broader economy will be in the near future.
More from CNNMoney.com:
• Want Lots of Vacation? Move to Lithuania
• Best Places to Launch a Business
• 10 Top-Paying Jobs in America
Lately, there has been a growing consensus among both investors and economists that the battered U.S. economy hit bottom and turned around earlier this year, and is now in a recovery.
The Federal Reserve said economic activity has "picked up" in its statement after its Sept. 23 meeting, and about 80 percent of leading economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics agreed in a survey earlier this month that the recovery has begun.
But even economists who agree the economy is in recovery say that growth will be slow and difficult, with continued job losses, tight credit and further declines in home prices. And even some who believe that the current Dow 10,000 level is justified say there's still a significant risk that the economy will take a step backward.
More from Yahoo! Finance:
• Bank Fees You Should Watch Out For
• Top 10 Mistakes That Rattled Wall Street
• Millionaires Putting Themselves on Budgets?
Visit the Banking and Budgeting Center
"One of the great challenges is whether consumers and small businesses come along with this recovery," said John Silvia, chief economist with Wells Fargo. "If they don't, you either sit at 10,000 or slip back to 9,500. To sustain another double-digit (percentage) gain to Dow 11,000 is asking too much from this economy and the risks we still see out there."
There are also economists who question whether the economy is truly in recovery, given that it continues to lose about a quarter-million jobs a month. They say the more than 50 percent rally in the Dow since it closed at a low of 6,594.44 on March 5 is only a reflection that the fear of the economy toppling into a full-fledged depression has abated.
"We're not at Armageddon anymore, so of course you should have some kind of rally," said Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research. "But I think there's a bubble-like atmosphere going on here in the rush back to 10,000. Caution should rule the day. We're not out of the woods yet."
Several experts point out than many of the relatively strong earnings reports helping to lift the markets in recent days are being driven by cost cuts, rather than strong revenue growth that would be a better indicator of consumers and businesses being willing to spend again. If businesses keep cutting costs to make the numbers that Wall Street wants to see, that can only put more downward pressure on jobs and wages, and result in weaker economic growth or another downturn.
"The companies are cutting fat, and in many cases cutting bone and muscle. There's no organic economic growth there," said Yamarone.
Barry Ritholtz, CEO and director of equity research at Fusion IQ, said that despite their reputation as a leading indicator, the stock markets do a terrible job forecasting the economy.
"Beware of economists pointing to the stock market," he said. "The rallies tend to be false starts because it's a reaction to what came before. The sell-offs tend to be overdone because, as they gain momentum, they lead to panics."
Ritholtz said comparisons of current earnings to those of a year ago or stock levels to the lows of earlier this year greatly exaggerate the strength even the market sees in the economic outlook.
"It's like saying the Detroit Lions have better year-over-year comparisons because they're no longer winless," he said about the football team that went 0-16 in 2008, but has won one of five games so far this year. "But they're still in last place and they're not winning the Super Bowl."
Another reason that comparisons to Dow levels of a year ago are risky is that two of the more troubled components -- General Motors and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) -- were dropped and replaced by stronger companies such as Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) and Travelers Cos. (TRV, Fortune 500) in June.
Without those changes the Dow would be almost 100 points lower now than it is with the stronger companies, although precise comparisons are difficult since GM shares are no longer traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
"You take out the worst, put in the best, and by definition you'll get better numbers," said Yamarone.
Copyrighted, CNNMoney. All Rights Reserved.
Thursday, October 15, 2009, 12:30AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 9 hrs..
Don't Trust Dow 10,000
by Chris Isidore
Wednesday, October 14, 2009provided by
The stock market is supposed to be a leading indicator, predicting what happens next. But the rally doesn't mean the nation's economic woes are over.
As the Dow closed above 10,000 for the first time in more than a year Wednesday, economists cautioned that the blue-chip average shouldn't be seen as giving a green light to the economy.
The stock market is what is known as a leading economic indicator, as investors place bets on how strong they believe company results and the broader economy will be in the near future.
More from CNNMoney.com:
• Want Lots of Vacation? Move to Lithuania
• Best Places to Launch a Business
• 10 Top-Paying Jobs in America
Lately, there has been a growing consensus among both investors and economists that the battered U.S. economy hit bottom and turned around earlier this year, and is now in a recovery.
The Federal Reserve said economic activity has "picked up" in its statement after its Sept. 23 meeting, and about 80 percent of leading economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics agreed in a survey earlier this month that the recovery has begun.
But even economists who agree the economy is in recovery say that growth will be slow and difficult, with continued job losses, tight credit and further declines in home prices. And even some who believe that the current Dow 10,000 level is justified say there's still a significant risk that the economy will take a step backward.
More from Yahoo! Finance:
• Bank Fees You Should Watch Out For
• Top 10 Mistakes That Rattled Wall Street
• Millionaires Putting Themselves on Budgets?
Visit the Banking and Budgeting Center
"One of the great challenges is whether consumers and small businesses come along with this recovery," said John Silvia, chief economist with Wells Fargo. "If they don't, you either sit at 10,000 or slip back to 9,500. To sustain another double-digit (percentage) gain to Dow 11,000 is asking too much from this economy and the risks we still see out there."
There are also economists who question whether the economy is truly in recovery, given that it continues to lose about a quarter-million jobs a month. They say the more than 50 percent rally in the Dow since it closed at a low of 6,594.44 on March 5 is only a reflection that the fear of the economy toppling into a full-fledged depression has abated.
"We're not at Armageddon anymore, so of course you should have some kind of rally," said Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research. "But I think there's a bubble-like atmosphere going on here in the rush back to 10,000. Caution should rule the day. We're not out of the woods yet."
Several experts point out than many of the relatively strong earnings reports helping to lift the markets in recent days are being driven by cost cuts, rather than strong revenue growth that would be a better indicator of consumers and businesses being willing to spend again. If businesses keep cutting costs to make the numbers that Wall Street wants to see, that can only put more downward pressure on jobs and wages, and result in weaker economic growth or another downturn.
"The companies are cutting fat, and in many cases cutting bone and muscle. There's no organic economic growth there," said Yamarone.
Barry Ritholtz, CEO and director of equity research at Fusion IQ, said that despite their reputation as a leading indicator, the stock markets do a terrible job forecasting the economy.
"Beware of economists pointing to the stock market," he said. "The rallies tend to be false starts because it's a reaction to what came before. The sell-offs tend to be overdone because, as they gain momentum, they lead to panics."
Ritholtz said comparisons of current earnings to those of a year ago or stock levels to the lows of earlier this year greatly exaggerate the strength even the market sees in the economic outlook.
"It's like saying the Detroit Lions have better year-over-year comparisons because they're no longer winless," he said about the football team that went 0-16 in 2008, but has won one of five games so far this year. "But they're still in last place and they're not winning the Super Bowl."
Another reason that comparisons to Dow levels of a year ago are risky is that two of the more troubled components -- General Motors and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) -- were dropped and replaced by stronger companies such as Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) and Travelers Cos. (TRV, Fortune 500) in June.
Without those changes the Dow would be almost 100 points lower now than it is with the stronger companies, although precise comparisons are difficult since GM shares are no longer traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
"You take out the worst, put in the best, and by definition you'll get better numbers," said Yamarone.
Copyrighted, CNNMoney. All Rights Reserved.
merlin
Member
"
XLNX Down 1.2% Following Q2 Earnings Results
Last Update: 14-Oct-09 18:36 ET
Strong earnings from a couple of industry bellwethers and a weaker U.S. dollar brought about a concerted buying effort that sent all three major indices to new 2009 highs. Stocks lost a bit of their upward momentum as they headed into the close, but the Dow was still able to settle above 10,000 for the first time in one year. After the close, Xilinx (XLNX) reported third quarter earnings, beating consensus by $0.03 and issuing fourth quarter revenue guidance that is above consensus.
Nine of the ten sectors were in positive territory, led by financials (+3.43%), industrials (+2.63%) and materials (+2.02%). The telecom sector (-0.01%) was in negative territory. Futures are lower after hours with S&P 500 futures 0.9 points below fair value of 1088.5 and Nasdaq 100 futures 5.59 points above fair value of 1752.84. Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: XLNX -1.0%...
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: AVGO +3.2% (raised Q4 revs growth guidance to up 15%, above prior guidance of up 7-10%).
Tomorrow morning, four economic releases are scheduled to be released before the open tomorrow. 1) Initial Claims (Consensus 525K), Continuing Claims (Consensus 6060K), Core CPI (Consensus 0.1%) and CPI (Consensus 0.2%).
Ahead of tomorrow morning's opening bell, Amphenol (APH), Baxter (BAX), Charles Schwab (SCHW), CIT Group (CIT), Citigroup (C), Cypress Semi (CY), Fairchild Semi (FCS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Home Bancshares (HOMB), Knoll (KNL), Nokia (NOK), Orbital Sciences (ORB), Polaris Inds (PII), Popular Inc (BPOP), PPG Industries (PPG), Safeway (SWY), Southwest Air (LUV), Territorial Bancorp (TBNK), Ultratech (UTEK), Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ), USA Truck (USAK), Winnebago Inds (WGO) are scheduled to report ea
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