McDuck's Account Talk

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Re: Greg's Account Talk

Treasury official: Subprime upheaval not over

Economy is still sound, however.

September 5 2007: 1:46 PM EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The full impact of the upheaval in financial markets "has yet to play out," a top administration official said Wednesday, while stressing that the effect will be dampened somewhat by solid economic growth.

Robert Steel, Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance, appeared before a House committee as the worst housing slump in 16 years and roller-coaster financial markets cast a shadow on the economy.

The housing gloom grows

"What we have is a severe lack of investor confidence," said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. He said he hopes that Congress and the administration will work together on solutions for the mortgage squeeze.

Stocks fell sharply Wednesday morning, as a nervous Wall Street digested a report showing a large drop in pending home sales. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped about 160 points in morning trading.

In prepared testimony, Steel told lawmakers, "This process is far from over... the ultimate impact of these events on the economy has yet to play out."

Danger: Steep drop ahead

The House Financial Services Committee was examining how people might be affected by the market turbulence, five days after President Bush put forward a plan to help struggling borrowers keep their homes amid rising foreclosures.

Frank has said he agrees with some elements of the White House proposal. Changes being proposed by Frank and other Democrats go further, however, and the Democratic-controlled Congress is expected to expand the proposals in coming weeks in response to voters' growing anxiety.

An estimated 2 million adjustable-rate mortgages are scheduled to "reset" this year and next, jumping from low "teaser" rates for the first two or three years to much steeper rates that could cost borrowers their homes. The wave of resets could crest during the presidential and congressional election campaigns next year, and the issue already has brought politically tinged debate over possible responses by the government.

Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., called the administration plan "an important first step" but added, "it is not enough."

The plan unveiled Friday at the White House would make it easier for borrowers now holding adjustable-rate mortgages to refinance those loans using the resources of the Federal Housing Administration, a Depression-era agency created to help low and moderate-income Americans afford homes.

Slowest private sector job growth since '03

Under the Bush proposal, an estimated 60,000 homeowners who have fallen behind on payments because their mortgages have reset would be able to refinance with FHA-insured loans. That marks a significant change because FHA is not now permitted to insure refinanced loans from borrowers who are currently delinquent.

Defaults have spiked in recent months on high-risk subprime mortgages, loans that were extended to borrowers with weak credit histories. The rising tide of soured loans forced a number of lenders into bankruptcy, while hedge funds and other big investors in securities backed by subprime mortgages took deep financial hits.

The turmoil spilled over into global credit markets in recent weeks as investors faced the prospect of not being repaid. Credit tightened, even for more creditworthy borrowers. Stock markets around the globe gyrated wildly and key market indexes were knocked down. The Federal Reserve and other central banks swooped into the markets, pumping tens of billions of dollars into the financial system to help banks and other institutions get through the credit crunch and continue to make loans.

Bush insisted on Friday that the economy was strong and could weather the market turbulence.

The tighter access to credit, making it harder for consumers and businesses to borrow, has raised anxiety that the economy could be hurt.

In keeping with its promise to aid the markets as needed, the Federal Reserve on Tuesday added a relatively modest $5 billion to the banking system through a repurchase agreement. And further bolstering the argument for an interest-rate cut, Fed directors, in minutes released Tuesday from three discount rate meetings from July 9 to Aug. 6, said a contracting U.S. housing market posed a risk to growth.

Also Tuesday, the Fed and other banking regulators issued special guidelines urging loan service companies to work with borrowers in danger of defaulting on their home mortgages.
 
Re: Greg's Account Talk

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McLean saga ensnares fabled instruments
Carter, Monroe treasures on the line

By NAOMI SNYDER
Staff Writer
Published: Sunday, 09/30/07

A face-off in U.S. Bankruptcy Court over two of the most-prized string instruments in music history has legions of country fans on edge, while investors duped by a high-profile donor to the Country Music Hall of Fame and Museum hope to get some of their millions back.

Hanging in the balance are Mother Maybelle Carter's famed 1928 Gibson guitar, which helped provide the foundation of country music, and the 1923 mandolin of Bill Monroe, who is considered the father of bluegrass.

The instruments, or at least the money that the late Robert W. McLean of Murfreesboro used to help the hall of fame acquire them, have become the focal points of this case of victim against victim, apparent suicide and long-shot causes.

On one side are dozens of people hoodwinked out of $40 million by a free-spending McLean, and on the other side sits the Country Music Hall of Fame and Museum, which acquired Mother Maybelle's famed Gibson L-5 guitar and Monroe's Gibson mandolin with some of McLean's cash.

Bob Waldschmidt, the bankruptcy trustee tracing McLean's history, says the law allows him to recover McLean's gifts to the hall of fame on behalf of investors and other creditors.
McLean spent almost $50 million in the last five and a half years of his life on homes, friends and charities, most of it obtained from people who thought the ex-stockbroker was investing their money in the stock market, Waldschmidt said.

McLean died last week

Instead, Waldschmidt said McLean was using other people's money for his own ends, including making donations to the hall of fame. The 60-year-old McLean died of a .38-caliber pistol wound to the head in an apparent suicide last week in Shelbyville, Tenn.

"If there was a ground zero for country music and a ground zero for bluegrass, those are the instruments you'd probably find," said Joe Chambers, chief executive officer of the Musicians Hall of Fame and Museum in Nashville, a few blocks from the Country Music Hall of Fame.

Chambers said he's sad about the whole situation.
"I can't imagine what it would be like to be one of those people who lost their money,'' he said. "And through no fault of (its) own you have the Country Music Hall of Fame, who has been placed in an unenviable situation. They're not trying to profit from those guitars. They're trying to preserve them for history."

Within the past three years, McLean gave the hall of fame $1.27 million in cash for Bill Monroe's mandolin and Carter's guitar, according to Waldschmidt. McLean made periodic payments to the hall, which acquired and now owns the instruments.

McLean also gave the museum two Johnny Cash guitars he had bought for $125,000 each, making his total gift to the museum closer to $1.5 million.

Lawyers said Waldschmidt could either try to sell the instruments or demand the hall of fame return the money in cash.

As for the Cash guitars, "you might be able to recover those because those were actually given," said Bill Norton, a bankruptcy attorney representing some of McLean's investors.

Trustee converts assets

Ronn Steen of the Stites & Harbison law firm in Nashville, who also represents some McLean creditors, said one of the responsibilities of the trustee "is to reduce hard assets into cash."

That could mean a sale of the instruments, with the McLean estate and its creditors pocketing whatever those instruments brought in a private sale or auction. Waldschmidt, who continues to negotiate with the hall of fame, declined to comment.

News of the legal problems has hit country music lovers hard.
Country star and collector Marty Stuart has called the instruments "irreplaceable."

"Those are two of the foundations of country music, period,'' he said last week. "... It's a heartbreaker all the way around. It makes me beyond sad that they would leave the hall of fame. That's almost like those cases where you hear (about) somebody adopting a child and years later someone comes and says, 'We want him back.' "

McLean 'guardian angel'

Museum director Kyle Young described McLean as a "guardian angel" three years ago when he announced McLean was saving Mother Maybelle Carter's guitar for posterity by allowing the museum to acquire it.

That move avoided the possibility that the guitar would end up in private hands, hidden from public view.

The guitar had been on loan to the museum since 1998 but an anonymous owner put it up for sale several years ago for a list price of $575,000. Local guitar store owner George Gruhn handled the sale. The museum never said how much it paid for the guitar.

Mandolin cost $1 million

McLean agreed to make periodic payments to the museum so the institution could buy the guitar, Waldschmidt said.
He said McLean had made $269,000 in cash payments for the guitar, a Gibson L-5 that Carter bought for $275 almost 80 years ago.

McLean paid $1 million in cash for Monroe's mandolin, making the last payment in June last year, Waldschmidt said. He believes that was the full purchase price, but a spokeswoman and an attorney for the hall of fame declined to confirm that.

Price today is unclear

If the instruments went up for sale today, there is no telling what they would bring, Chambers said. Prices for vintage guitars have in some cases doubled or tripled in the past three years, he said, but it's not clear how that would affect such singular instruments as the Carter guitar or Monroe's mandolin.

"It just depends who has a hankering for it and what they will pay for it," Chambers said. "I've rarely seen (prices) go down."

The other question is how returning McLean's donations would affect the museum financially. Liz Thiels, a spokeswoman for the museum, declined to comment on that point, but said the annual operating budget of the museum is $13 million.

There's always a chance the museum could raise more money from private donors to settle the matter and keep the instruments.

"Why doesn't someone like Garth Brooks or someone who has made a ton of money in country music buy it for the museum?" said Mike Bell, a curator specializing in popular culture at the Tennessee State Museum. "It seems like that would be the right thing to do."
 
Re: Greg's Account Talk

Yesterday (10/15/07) Tom wrote:

"The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey System is on a sell signal this week again, after Thursday's 2.04 to 1 bulls (57%) to bears (28%) ratio. The last three times the system saw three consecutive 2 to 1 or higher ratios in a row, the market ended the week in the red. The last one saw a 4% drop. So if next week is going to be positive, it is going to have to buck the recent trend."
 
Re: Greg's Account Talk

I did an IFT to 100% I-fund on 10/12/07 COB

I did an IFT to 100% S-fund effective on 10/17/07 COB
 
Re: Greg's Account Talk

According to my records, the Ebb&flow system is down 2.29% just for the month of Oct since they started charging for it. I was afraid that would happen.
 
Re: Greg's Account Talk

Are you the infamous "Cooler"? He was hired by someone to join the Ebbchart system - could have beem a competitor. He could have signed up under an assumed alias.
 
Re: Greg's Account Talk

Are you the infamous "Cooler"? He was hired by someone to join the Ebbchart system - could have beem a competitor. He could have signed up under an assumed alias.

No, I'm the infamous "Greg" - the archenemy of the guy that's in 6-months timeout.

Ebb made me about 8 or 9 % in the first 2 months that I followed him. I was afraid that once he went "black project" his system would tank and it appears to have.
 
Re: Greg's Account Talk

Greg

Just wanted to drop a word of thanks to you in here for keeping a record of the I Fund valuation history. I really appreciate having it as a reference and record.

Ron
 
Re: Greg's Account Talk



STRESS MESS IN U.S. By MARK JOYELLA and ELAINE CHAN

October 25, 2007 -- We're stressed out, we can't sleep, we're drinking too much - and it's getting worse. Forty-eight percent of Americans say they're more stressed now than they were five years ago, and the same percent report regularly lying awake at night because of stress, according to a new study by the American Psychological Association.

"Stress continues to escalate, and it's affecting every area of people's lives," said Russ Newman, a psychologist and executive director of the APA.

So what is it we're worrying about while we stare at the ceiling all night? Primarily two things: money and work, the main woes for nearly 75 percent of Americans. That's way up from 59 percent of us stressed out over those two things a year ago.

We're also worrying about making the rent. More than half of people polled say paying the landlord or making the monthly mortgage causes great stress.

The APA study was conducted online and involved interviews with 1,848 Americans nationwide.

According to the report, all that stress and worry is taking a big toll on our lives, leading us to fight with family members, drink, smoke and give up on working out.

"The high stress levels that many Americans report experiencing can have long-term health consequences, ranging from fatigue to obesity and heart disease," Newman said.

The study found that as a result of stress, 54 percent of people have fought with loved ones, and 8 percent say stress has led to separation or divorce.

More than three-quarters of respondents say stress is making them sick, from headaches (44 percent) to upset stomach (34 percent) and grinding their teeth (17 percent).

And then there's the not-so-healthy ways people try to handle all that stress, from eating junk food to tipping the bottle. Forty-three percent claim they eat - or overeat - unhealthy food to deal with stress, while a third say they lose their appetite and start skipping meals.

Drinkers and smokers report downing more booze and lighting up more often when feeling the effects of stress.

"Some people feel overwhelmed and out of control," said Beverly Thorn, a University of Alabama psychologist who was one of the researchers involved in the study.

Thorn explains that people turn to bad habits when under stress - and that often makes them feel even worse. "It's a vicious cycle," she said.

But it's not all bad news.

More than half of Americans listen to music, read, or exercise as a way to alleviate stress. Others spend time with family and friends. More than a third say they pray when stressed out.
 
Re: Greg's Account Talk

I went 100% C-fund on 11/14 COB when it was $16.54 per share.

Yesterday COB it was at $16.07 which is a 2.84% loss for me. :(

During this same period of time, the S-fund lost 3.81% and the I-fund lost 1.68%. And the F-fund went up 1.19% :notrust:.

Griffin is currently in the C-fund. He went in on 11/21 when it was at $15.94, so he is a winner.
 
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Re: Greg's Account Talk

I've been in the C fund since 12/29/06 at $15.69. Does that make me a round tripper? Now I'll start the process all over again to DCA back to $17.53 and collect those valuable shares. The lower the price the more shares to collect.
 
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