McDuck's Account Talk

[McDuck]

Why the Air Is About to Come Out of America's Bubble Economy - Peter Schiff
[FONT=&quot]Jun 9, 2017[/FONT]

 

[McDuck]

 

[McDuck]

 

[McDuck]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/feeonl...1k-plan-is-costing-you-millions/#287706f760c7

"I often speak to military members on financial basics, and I describe the TSP is much like MRE’s (meals ready-to-eat); it offers enough to survive but you prefer just about anything else"

 

[McDuck]

[h=1]Make Military and Federal Employee Retirements Great With True TSP Modernization[/h]
https://www.forbes.com/sites/feeonl...eat-with-true-tsp-modernization/#25c6b0807770

 

[Tsunami]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/feeonl...1k-plan-is-costing-you-millions/#287706f760c7

"I often speak to military members on financial basics, and I describe the TSP is much like MRE’s (meals ready-to-eat); it offers enough to survive but you prefer just about anything else"

My favorite quote in that article: "I am ignoring bonds in this example since many TSP investors have a pension that they can rely on for many years in retirement which can replace a significant portion of a bond allocation." I've seen similar statements before. Basically you can consider your Federal annuity and social security as the stable portion of your portfolio that's equivalent to holding bonds. So you really don't need to buy bond ETFs or individual bonds when you retire. This also solves the current problem of low yields on bonds. Looking at it that way it's easier to keep most or all of your TSP in stocks after retirement.

Second, this article reminds me very much of the Paul Merriman's strategies, which I plan to use for a portion of my retirement portfolio outside of the TSP. I've put a lot of hours over the last few years in whittling down which ETF's I want to use for that diversified chunk of my overall portfolio, which will include things like a value stock ETF, and emerging markets... a year ago I settled on India as my favorite emerging market and made a note to buy India using the ETF "EPI", but I've failed to follow my own advice yet and am watching it go up as India starts to emerge as the next major economy....that's a trend that should continue through the 2020s though, so there's still plenty of time left on that train.

TSP | Paul Merriman

 

[McDuck]

I interpret this chart as saying August is the worst month to be in the S-Fund.

 

[McDuck]

I don't think things look good for the S-fund until it downs another 2.1%
Also there was a gap on January 05 2017 that was never filled.

 

[McDuck]

 

[McDuck]

Ron Paul: 50% stock market plunge 'conceivable,' but it's not President Trump's fault

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/18/ron-paul-50-percent-stock-market-plunge-conceivable.html

 

[McDuck]

[h=1]A chart trend could spell a downturn of at least 3% in stocks: Technician[/h]
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/11/sto...n-if-this-trend-holds-chart-watcher-says.html

 

[McDuck]

[h=1]CBO Boosts Prospects for Wider TSP Withdrawal Options[/h]
CBO Boosts Prospects for Wider TSP Withdrawal Options

[FONT=&quot]By concluding that such changes would not significantly affect the government’s finances, CBO’s evaluation of S-873 helps clear the way for final passage by Congress. That measure is pending a vote in the full Senate and a companion bill (HR-3031) is ready for a House vote, as well.

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]The bill would allow current employees to make more than one “age-based” withdrawal after turning age 59 ½.[/FONT]

 

[McDuck]

S&P500 in last 3-years-2-months. With 200-day-MA in blue.

 

[Whipsaw]

Sure is knocking at the door.

 

[McDuck]

$DWS in last 5 years, with 200-day MA.

 

[burrocrat]

so just what is the chart saying? i don't speak that language. so basically we are about break even overall, with most data points above the line and some just barely touching it? with most activity above the line for a long time? and then all of a sudden based on the big picture everybody is going to pick right now to freak tfo?

 

[McDuck]

Sedans Dying a Slow Death: GM, F, FCAU Score High on SUVs

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sedans-dying-slow-death-gm-134601855.html

• After a disappointing February, all major automakers reported significant growth in March sales
• Auto companies reported a year-over-year rise in auto sales, thanks to increasing demand for SUVs. American customers are changing their preference for crossovers and SUVs for quite some time now, which has led to a decline in demand for sedans.
• General Motors is reportedly planning to ditch its subcompact car Chevrolet Sonic
• Ford plans to do away with Fiesta, the company might also kill its full-size Taurus sedan.
• Ford, in March, said that by 2020, 90% of its lineup in the United States will comprise SUVs and pickups. :worried: :suspicious:

 

[Whipsaw]

I've never owned a sedan, drove my parent's Olds Cutlass Cierra... I've had a '79 Trans Am, '88 Reatta, '89 and '00 Jeep Cherokees and a 93 Bronco, the wife drives an Explorer. So, the demise of the sedan, while premature I think, could happen. I have always wanted a Mercury Marauder since they came out, though.

 

[nasa1974]

Sedans Dying a Slow Death: GM, F, FCAU Score High on SUVs

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sedans-dying-slow-death-gm-134601855.html

• After a disappointing February, all major automakers reported significant growth in March sales
• Auto companies reported a year-over-year rise in auto sales, thanks to increasing demand for SUVs. American customers are changing their preference for crossovers and SUVs for quite some time now, which has led to a decline in demand for sedans.
• General Motors is reportedly planning to ditch its subcompact car Chevrolet Sonic
• Ford plans to do away with Fiesta, the company might also kill its full-size Taurus sedan.
• Ford, in March, said that by 2020, 90% of its lineup in the United States will comprise SUVs and pickups. :worried: :suspicious:

I've go my 2013 Ford F-150 and looking to get the wife a new Ford Edge. I think it's time to turn in the 2003 Chevy Malibu.

 

[Cactus]

Being a Honda family right now I'm surprised they didn't have more to say, in that article, on what Honda might cut. I'd at least expect a non-comital reply like:

Honda Motor Company said this Insight into the changing consumer preference is an Odssey, but the entire company is of one Accord that it is our Civic duty to only produce vehicles that Fit the consumer's preference and to Pilot the Elements of future design Accordingly.