Maui's Account Talk

[maui21ice]

Been investing in TSP for a year now, so kinda low account balance.

Currently sitting 100% C-fund as of November 1st after some bad moves in and out of the C and F throughout the Summer. Negative for the year so far, but hoping to recover with a year-end boost in the C and S funds.

Current Allocation: 100% C

 

[nnuut]

Welcome to the Forum maui21ice, market is slow now and nobody knows which way it will go, most think we are due for a drop and a Santa rally but that may not be true.
Get on the Auto Tracker and see what everyone is doing, something is going to happen.
Best of luck
Norman

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Welcome aboard Maui.

Plenty to learn and you have lots of time to your advantage.

Good luck!!

 

[maui21ice]

Thanks nnuut and RealMoney.

I joined the Autotracker back in October at the beginning of the month and forgot to line it up with my real TSP account mid-month when I did a jump to the F-fund. So I lostmoney the end of Oct in my real world account, but gained it all back on here. Wish it woulda been vice versa!

Looking at the amount of people in the S-fund right now on top this year makes me wish I'd jump to that instead of the C, but I plan on staying patient and not wasting my 2 IFT this early in Nov.

I plan on probably going S the last few days of November to catch the historically good December S-Fund gains.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Welcome to the boards, Maui!! (R u in Maui, or some other connection?)
I have written lots of time to new TSP'ers. Maybe I can give you a little different perspective on how you might want to do your allocations.

I have been in TSP/FERS since its inception, having transferred in from CSRS. In the early years I set up all in equities (C,S,I) and just put as much in as possible....using Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) as my investment plan. No matter if the market went up or down, if it went down I just was able to buy at lower prices. And when you are just starting out, you have plenty of time for the market to recover from any downturns.

As you get closer to retirement, you don't have as much time to recover so you need to be a little more careful (of course I am now 45%C and 55%S ).

Just look at this year. If you went all C and left it there the whole year, you would be in the top 50 on the AutoTracker (#27 actually) at 12%! Not too shabby....Plus you would have gotten add'l $ from the DCA'ing!! Even if you were in C and S all year, u would be at 10%, #62. Or all S, 6.4%. Or 20% each, 4.9%. And again, for all of these, you would have significantly more from the DCA.

The Key when you are starting out is to just put in as much as you can. Moving it around a lot can be detrimental.

At least it is something to consider. (This is the time for Birchtree to chime in also!) :blink:

 

[maui21ice]

Welcome to the boards, Maui!! (R u in Maui, or some other connection?)

I have been in TSP/FERS since its inception, having transferred in from CSRS. In the early years I set up all in equities (C,S,I) and just put as much in as possible....using Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) as my investment plan.

Just a huge fan of Hawaii and hope to get there on vacation in the near future. I use the name Maui Ice as my Fantasy Football team names usually.

That's actually a big help advice-wise! I have 29 more years of Federal Service to go (plus 4 years military I'm buying back), so I'm going to stay between C/S funds as much as possible early on like you said. What exactly is Dollar Cost Averaging? I've been taking a look at Seasonal Strategies lately and trying to apply them to my IFT's. I just recently started that so not much progress yet, but was figuring on starting there until I get a grasp on things.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

.... What exactly is Dollar Cost Averaging? I've been taking a look at Seasonal Strategies lately and trying to apply them to my IFT's. I just recently started that so not much progress yet, but was figuring on starting there until I get a grasp on things.

For DCA, you set your allocation to, say, 50/50 C/S. As the funds come in, they will purchase at the current price. You buy fewer shares when prices are high, and more shares when prices are low, since you are buying with a fixed dollar amt. So you don't care if the market goes up or down. What you are depending on is that the market will eventually go up over the long term. That is why it works best if you have a long time to ensure that you can outlast any downturns. Hope that helps.

 

[maui21ice]

Seeing a lot of allocations switch to F and G this weekend. I'm sitting 100% in C right now, but feel like there will still be a big run-up toward the end of the year.

Already used 1 IFT to go C on November 3rd in my real world TSP, so I don't want to waste one now just to be stuck in the G or F up til 1st week of December.

Gotta risk it, to get the biscuit...

 

[maui21ice]

I take everything from my last post back.
Seeing a lot of people with higher account balances and percentages YTD than me move to F or G funds. So I'm following their lead and joining the safe-haven.

100% F-fund IFT submitted today for COB Monday.

 

[maui21ice]

With switching from the C to the F, I have like a 10 day streak of gains going. Hopefully this keeps up.

 

[maui21ice]

Going S-fund today...

S-fund has been positive every single December except 3 times since 1988. Historically one of its stronger months.

Happy Thanksgiving fellow investors!!

 

[maui21ice]

Waiting for my S-fund allocation and IFT to kick in next Monday, so a .81% drop in the fund today was a nice surprise since the S is sitting so high right now. Looking at the seasonal approach and strategy I've been trying to stick to, I'm suppose to stay S fund for all December. However, I'm wondering if the market will drop the first 2 weeks of December and pick up id-way through for a surge through the end of 2014...

 

[pmaloney]

Good luck! The next couple of weeks and the whole month should be very interesting.

 

[maui21ice]

Good luck! The next couple of weeks and the whole month should be very interesting.

I'm hoping it's a VERY high earning month of course, but I have a feeling it will start slow and then take off like a rocket middle of the month. AS long as I'm in the green the end of the month, I'm good.

 

[maui21ice]

Got a notification on my phone from the GasBuddy app I have that gas is going down even more after this Thanksgiving weekend.

Booyah!

 

[maui21ice]

Was looking at how Exxon stock was dropping recently lined up with the gas prices going down. Might be a good buy in a few weeks or later in the month when prices start going back up, stock should rise as well.

 

[maui21ice]

Getting itchy for some major down days to hit so I can buy back into the S, but I think this is where learning my patience will finally sink in. Hopefully it pays off.

Guess I can't argue with the G for now. Small gains are better than no gains.

 

[maui21ice]

Liked the big drop day the C & S funds had 2 days ago, and even though both were positive Thursday, they both ended the day on a down-slide. GOnna keep my eyes pealed 'til 11:45ish EST Friday and see how it's looking and maybe buy back into the stocks for the Santa Rally to hit mid-month. Feeling like once we hit Monday, the boom could start. Got both IFT's left for the month, so felling good about my timing.

Here's to hoping my patience pays off!

 

[maui21ice]

Have been 100% S Fund on here since the end of November, but in my real world TSP I just went 100% C-fund today after the huge drop so I will be all in Monday morning when the bell rings. Hopefully that's when the December sparks start flying and I can gain a few percentage points to end out the year a bit more positive than it has been for me.

I don't have the AutoTracker and my real world TSP lined up right now, but I probably will once the new year starts so I can mirror my earnings (and hopefully not losings...)

 

[maui21ice]

Was wishing I would have held out 2 more days to make that IFT to the C-Fund this past week. My first 2 days of trading took a .60-some and .80-some percent loss, but I recovered nicely with the two days of 2%+ end of day closes. I'd be sitting at 4.5% on that 2 day gain instead of just 3.2-ish%.

Happy with this weeks performance though. Gonna hopefully ride this out through the rest of the year and switch over to G or F early January.