Market Talk / Nov. 30 - Dec. 6

[Spaf]

Market Talk
Sunday Edition
November 30, 2008​

General Commentary:

Are we out of the Bearville woods? No! But, we have hit a crossroads. Government actions have set in a conditional bottom, conditional on soothing the liquidity crisis. Economic data still points to recessionary like conditions. Will the automakers get the message, or will they continue their path to distruction. A lot of if's and's and but's.

The TSP has a two-fold crisis, one of management and one due to the decline in investments. Fund transfer restrictions were a return to the stone age. A (fitful) action against what they considered unwanted members. And secondly, ill (or omission) of advice to safeguard member portfolios. Numerically the C-Fund is down 41% of it's value, from a year ago October, with loss of gains a portfolio could be down around 50%. Note: Fifty-percent requires a 100% make up. For a retirement deduction of $17.50 a year ago, you now get only $10.32, so more shares are needed. Maybe it's time to rethink retirement accounts with the TSP. What you thought you would need, is not reality, after a bear market takes it's toll.

Yes, my opinion is we are at a crossroads, but how long will it take us to get out of the woods and continue above the S&P high of October 07 of 1,576.

A look at the chart(s)
The S&P500 [$SPX] Daily
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Pricing moved above the 13dma, bullish with considerable avenues of resistance and peril.

The Bollinger Bands are still wide, or possible volatile.

The P-SAR just turned bullish.

Volume has been both high and low.

The S-STO is mid-ranged, aiming for overbought levels.

The MACD was registering bullish at week's close.

Well, that's it for the weekend!​

Be careful out there!​

 

[McDuck]

^AORD Down 44.00 (1.20%)
^N225 Down 147.20 (1.73%)

 

[Show-me]

O' look Ben speaks and the markets shoot for new lows.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

O' look Ben speaks and the markets shoot for new lows.

What else is new?

 

[Birchtree]

We may have unconventional Fed policy on the horizon. That'll be very positive for the economy and the markets - best be earlier to scout your position.

 

[Gumby]

O' look Ben speaks and the markets shoot for new lows.

Did you hear the comments about to big to fail? He spoke mainly of financial institutions.....but really didn't say anything about others sectors such as the automakers. Ben is the Bailout king! No Banker left behind.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm waiting for oil to break $49. Will we take back 200 points of this decline after 1500 hours - it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[nnuut]

I'm waiting for oil to break $49. Will we take back 200 points of this decline after 1500 hours - it wouldn't surprise me.

It just did!! Now what's gonna happen?
Time........,...Barrel.....Daily Status.....
12/01/08
Settle.........$49.28.......-5.38

 

[poolman]

It just did!! Now what's gonna happen?
Time........,...Barrel.....Daily Status.....
12/01/08
Settle.........$49.28.......-5.38

Now the Slide starts...

 

[Show-me]

Killing frenzy!

 

[Gumby]

Killing frenzy!

Double whammy today of Ben and Hank flapping their lips.
What is going to happen tomorrow with the automakers?
Glad I am parked on the lilly pad today.

 

[Show-me]

Tuesday, December 2:

• Earnings: Beazer Homes (BZH), Sears Holdings (SHLD), Staples (SPLS), Marvell (MRVL)
• Economic Data: Auto and Truck Sales (Nov.)
• Events:General Electric (GE) gives general business update on GE Capital
• Conferences: Credit Suisse Global Airline Conference... Credit Suisse Tech Conference (Day 1 of 4)... FBR Capital Markets Investor Conference (Day 1 of 2)... Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference (Day 1 of 2)... Citi Chemicals Conference... Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference (Day 1 of 2)
• Fed Speakers: Philadelphia Fed President Plosser speaks about U.S. economic outlook (12:30 PM ET)... Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks about the U.S.-China economic dialogues to take place on Thursday and Friday

 

[Show-me]

Sound like no matter how you slice it the Big Three will go into bankruptcy.

 

[James48843]

It is no longer the "Big Three". It's the "Detroit Three".

Combined they only make up about 44% of the marketplace today, compared to 74% just ten years ago. They have cut, cut, cut, cut, cut enough that they are no longer "bigger" that the rest.

If even one of them goes down, then the entire industry will crash. Suppliers are all interdependant.

When it is over, there will be Korean manufacturers, and Chinese manufacturers about ten years from now.

And a lot of Americans working as greeters at Wal-Mart for $7.25 an hour. Provided that we don't reduce the minimum wage by then.

 

[Show-me]

Minus 533,000 jobs!

Last month revised up 80,000

 

[Show-me]

Give me my stimulus check!

 

[Gumby]

Give me my stimulus check!

LOL...stand in line:nuts:

 

[Show-me]

First Georgia Community Bank Shut, 23rd U.S. Failure (Update1)

By Ari Levy and Margaret Chadbourn
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- First Georgia Community Bank of Jackson was closed by regulators today, the 23rd U.S. bank seized this year, as mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures surge to records amid a deepening recession.
First Georgia, with $237.5 million in assets and $197.4 million in deposits, was shut by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was named receiver. United Bank of Zebulon, Georgia, will assume First Georgia’s deposits and open the failed bank’s four offices southeast of Atlanta tomorrow as United branches, the FDIC said.