Market Talk / May 6th - 12th

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
May 06, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box, The 5-Tribes and The Barn Yard

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.....................................Socks [SPX] remain bullish, trading above the 13d / above the 50d MA. Volume was on average at 2.51B.

Con-Yak....................................However, trading near the top of the bands means that stock prices are high. The Stochastics %K is above %D which is bullish, however the indicator is above 80, meaning that it is overbought.

Jester-Yak.................................Where do we go from here?

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
SPX..1505.62 +11.55 for the week..1490............1475

Dollar.......................................81.75 +0.26 for the week ending...$USD

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............61.93 -1.45 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)......G=11.90..F=11.38..C=16.76..S=20.40..I=24.40
....(1 week past)........G=11.89..F=11.34..C=16.62..S=20.28..I=24.14
....(2 week past)........G=11.88..F=11.34..C=16.51..S=20.19..I=24.24
....(3 week past)........G=11.87..F=11.28..C=16.16..S=20.00..I=23.93
....(4 week past)........G=11.86..F=11.31..C=16.06..S=19.82..I=23.61

....(end of 2006)........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

5-Tribes.
Tomorrow...................................Tribes holding 5 bears and 0 bulls.

The Barn Yard
Location.....................................100% G-Fund. Overbought + CP.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/070430/043007_markets_sellinmay.html?.v=2


CNNMoney.com
Sell in May and go away may not apply in 2007
Monday April 30, 6:56 am ET
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
With the Dow at a record high and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 at six-year highs, it seems like a good time to cut and run. Wouldn't you agree?
No? Well, according to the old Wall Street adage "Sell in May and go away," one who invests in stocks during the colder months and sits it out during the beach months can do quite nicely, more or less.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

http://biz.yahoo.com/brn/070502/21894.html?.v=1&printer=1


Bankrate.com
Rates slide for I-bond and Series EE bond
Wednesday May 2, 6:00 am ET
Laura Bruce

"If you didn't like them before you won't like them any better now."
Dan Pederson, author of "Savings Bonds: When to Hold, When to Fold, and Everything In-Between," summed up the current savings bond scenario quite succinctly upon seeing the new rates issued by the Treasury Department.
The government trimmed both the adjustable and the fixed rates on the inflation-fighting I-bond. Consumers who buy the bond between May 1 and Oct. 31 will get the combined rate of 3.74 percent for the first six months that they own the bond. That combined rate consists of a fixed rate of 1.3 percent that stays with the bond for its 30-year life and an inflation rate of 2.42 percent that's adjusted every May 1 and Nov. 1. (The slight discrepancy is due to the way the composite is calculated.) The previous combined rate of 4.52 percent had an adjustable rate of 3.1 percent and a fixed rate of 1.4 percent. The I-bond adjustment is based on the previous six months of data for the Consumer Price Index.

 

[weatherweenie]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

Briefing.com 08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Early indications are pointing to a higher open for stocks as investors digest another round of healthy Monday-morning M&A activity. The biggest news has come from Alcoa (AA), which offered to acquire rival Alcan (AL) for approximately $33 bln in enterprise value, or a 32% premium.
Per usual, the acquirer (Alcoa) is trading lower on the news but, since AA is a Dow component, blue chip gains are minimal as investors also contend with a market that is looking increasingly overbought since stocks continue to run ahead of fundamentals.

 

[weatherweenie]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

Briefing.com
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.8. The futures market continues to trade above fair value, suggesting the underlying bullish momentum over the last several weeks may carry over into this morning's open. Aside from further evidence that companies remain awash in liquidity, some confidence that inflation measures have eased a bit and recession fears have faded are also providing additional support this morning. In fact, the absence of any notable economic data scheduled today to possibly upset the apple cart is also being viewed as a net positive for investors arguing that stocks have more room to run.

 

[vectorman]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

Looks like the majority is trying out the I fund for tomorrow. Should be interesting. I fund has done well since Apr 30th, maybe too well. Risk vs reward....http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

PS I have found Thunder5 moves to be very interesting.

 

[Spaf]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
May 07, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, 5-Tribes, and The Barn Yard.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks [SPX] remain bullish, trading above 13d, above 50d MA.

Con-Yak...................................SPX trading near upper B. band as prices are high. Stochastics registering bullish with %K above %D. However, indicator is above 80 meaning socks are overbought.

Jester-Yak................................There are two things you don't chase, one is a trend, the other is a skunk, the results are generally the same.

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1509.48 +3.86.........1494.............1479

Dollar........................................81.68 -0.07 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............61.47 -0.46 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Green!

5-Tribes
Tomorrow...................................Tribes holding 4.5 bears and 0.5 a bull.

The Barn Yard
Location.....................................100% G.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

I think it's the start of a new bull leg in our ongoing mega trend secular bull market. I'm bullish into perpituity or at least 2010. Did the utility average make a new all-time high today?

 

[weatherweenie]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

06:21 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.8.
06:20 am : FTSE...6563.20...-40.50...-0.6%. DAX...7452.45...-73.24...-1.0%.
06:20 am : Nikkei...17656.84...-12.99...-0.1%. Hang Seng...20706.35...-190.29...-0.9%.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Active/PrintPage/PrintPage.aspx?PageId=3003

The Big Picture

Updated: 08-May-07 08:11 ET
The Big Picture - Taking Stock

Last Update: 16-Sep-03 13:50 ET

The conventional wisdom is that the stock market will drift lower over the next couple of weeks during earnings warnings season, but make no major break either up or down. Just as the conventional wisdom about a flat market in August proved accurate, so might the current call. With that in mind, Briefing.com takes a look at some of the broader issues from a longer-term perspective.

The Need to Analyze

Every day, analysts and journalists scramble to explain every fluctuation in the market. Most of the time, the explanations are correct, but investors also need to step back regularly and avoid the myopia caused by over-analysis. Below are some of our views in bullet point format, categorized by issue.
The Economy

• Ignore the weaker than expected August retail sales number reported Friday. In that survey, auto sales were up just 0.5%. But it is the actual figures from the auto makers that go into GDP, and they were up sharply. That report in no way derails the 6% GDP forecasts for the third quarter.
• Ignore the August decline in non-farm payrolls and the idea that this economic cycle will be different from the rest as a jobless recovery. Employment traditionally lags economic turns by six months. That marks September or October for a likely upturn. Journalists are over anxious and over analyzing the employment data.
• Watch the data on consumer spending. If same-store sales and auto sales stay strong, a full economic upturn is inevitable.
• The bottom line is that real GDP this quarter will be very strong, near a 6% annual growth rate. Not every release has to be a blow-out for this to happen. The fourth quarter will be near 4%.

Inflation

• Ignore the rise in the price of gold as an indicator of higher inflation.
• Watch wages and unit labor costs. Commodity prices will not rise sufficiently enough to create significant inflation pressures, the real pressures come from the labor side of the equation.
• The bottom line is that inflation remains near 1%, with perhaps modest signs that it might inch higher.

 

[clester]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

TSP.GOV is really slow. Is everyone bailing out or buying?

 

[USNAVYRETIRED]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

TSP.GOV is really slow. Is everyone bailing out or buying?

Yea, I just asked that question in the Account Talk section. I finally gave up and used the toll free number and called in my IFT for today.... :nuts:

 

[wv-girl]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

Yea, I just asked that question in the Account Talk section. I finally gave up and used the toll free number and called in my IFT for today.... :nuts:

I know the number for the TSP line has been posted somewhere on this site. Would you happen to have it handy?

tia

 

[SkiUtah]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

Looking at today's action, the dips seem to be getting shorter in duration, and shallower in depth.... may we all be right and have big green for tommorrow.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

I know the number for the TSP line has been posted somewhere on this site. Would you happen to have it handy?

A little late for today, but for future reference...

Telephone: 1-TSP-YOU-FRST (1-877-968-3778)
TDD: 1-TSP-THRIFT5 (1-877-847-4385) (for hearing-impaired participants)

International callers who cannot use the toll free number should call (404) 233-4400 (not toll free).​

 

[Spaf]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
May 08, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, 5-Tribes, and The Barn Yard.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks [SPX] remain bullish, trading above 13d, above 50d MA. And trading is within the B. Bands.

Con-Yak...................................Stochastics for [SPX] is giving a weak bearish signal with %K under %D. The ocillator is above the critical value of 80 as being overbought.

Jester-Yak................................Don't fall in love with the TSP funds!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1507.72 -1.76.........1494.............1479

Dollar........................................81.94 +0.27 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............62.26 +0.79 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow!

5-Tribes
Tomorrow...................................Tribes holding 4 bears and 1 bull.

The Barn Yard
Location.....................................100% G.

 

[wht00ss]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

some food for thought:

The last four Federal Meetings have been followed by a rally in the SPY's of $1 to $2 which is equivalent to a 10 to 20 point upward move in the S&P 500. Meanwhile prior to the last four Federal Reserve Meetings the SPY's dropped from $1 to $4 in four out of the five previous Federal Reserve Meetings . It should be very interesting to see how the market reacts this time based on what is said at Wednesday's meeting.

As a side note I'm probably just reiterating what you already know but if the Fed stays pat you are also likely to see the BOE (bank of england) bump to 5.75% - not necessarily related and the ECB will probably remain pat as well at their next meeting . Even though Europe (especially Germany) is in a recovery/growth mode a significant portion of the I funds growth is not due to overseas growth but currency fluctuations. Europe will probably remain strong supporting the euro while a weaker Japan will probably show up in a weaker yen against the dollar. Watch for a floor on the dollar.

I've played the I fund 80% for the last year and a half in the good and bad times and will continue to. I'm just keeping an eye out on the currency/dollar situation. (I probably should have posted this in the I fund section.)

 

[Spaf]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

some food for thought:

The last four Federal Meetings have been followed by a rally in the SPY's of $1 to $2 which is equivalent to a 10 to 20 point upward move in the S&P 500. Meanwhile prior to the last four Federal Reserve Meetings the SPY's dropped from $1 to $4 in four out of the five previous Federal Reserve Meetings ........

Seems like the risk is 50/50 but the rewards can be on the down side!

 

[weatherweenie]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

Briefing.com
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.5. Futures indications are trading below fair value, pointing to a lower open for stocks. With expectations from Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Walt Disney (DIS) running high ahead of their reports last night, Cisco merely issuing in-line Q4 revenue guidance and a Q2 sales shortfall at Disney have sparked some profit taking in both large-cap names.
Investors are also exhibiting a sense of caution ahead of this afternoon's FOMC meeting. Even though it is a foregone conclusion that policy makers at 2:15 ET today will leave rates unchanged at 5.25% again, investors remain anxious to see if the Fed's directive implies there is a balanced risk between economic weakness and inflation.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market Talk / May 6th - May 12th

Strange. A quick 30 point rally during the normally quiet hour before the Fed policy statement. Think some info was leaked?