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Market Talk / Jan. 14 - 20
- Thread starter Show-me
- Start date
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Good info here although he is a little
optimistic! Heck he might be right?
Another significant breakout for the Nasdaq
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={DFD66C7D-2FC4-43A1-B360-6550C1FC7C4C}
optimistic! Heck he might be right?
Another significant breakout for the Nasdaq
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={DFD66C7D-2FC4-43A1-B360-6550C1FC7C4C}
Oldcoin
Member
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
CNBC is excitedly proclaiming that the Volatility in the market is in the lowest 1% of the last 8 years.
CNBC's Larry Kudlow has been consistently saying that this is an unshakable, Goldilocks market and economy.
Here is the reality and long term picture of the Volatility Index, symbol: VIX.
Below is a long term chart of the Volatility Index.
As you can see, its 4 year channel broke through to the upside last Summer and then fell back into the long term channel which
was positive.
A TA’s analysis of the VIX. He’s not happy with the low reading.
CNBC is excitedly proclaiming that the Volatility in the market is in the lowest 1% of the last 8 years.
CNBC's Larry Kudlow has been consistently saying that this is an unshakable, Goldilocks market and economy.
Here is the reality and long term picture of the Volatility Index, symbol: VIX.
Below is a long term chart of the Volatility Index.
As you can see, its 4 year channel broke through to the upside last Summer and then fell back into the long term channel which
was positive.
A TA’s analysis of the VIX. He’s not happy with the low reading.
robo
Well-known member
Broad market weakness? A stalling rally? Or sector rotation?
Despite the CNBC Bubblevision anchors’ “downloading” over a new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the action has looked decidedly range-bound over the last month. The S&P 500, which I think is marginally more relevant than the Industrials, is still within 2% of its November highs. Additionally, there were several days of action below the 26ema, which is something that hadn’t really happened much since August. Is “the market” stalling out? The real story is a bit deeper than that.
Stockcharts.com has some wonderful tools. One of the least-used tools appears to be the “Market Carpet,” which can show returns for a huge number of stocks at one time, allowing you to visually identify via color which ones have various returns over periods from 2 to 45 days. I have assembled a modest list of sector/industry indices and ETFs which I’ve been using to track the ongoing sector rotation. I think it speaks for itself. Note that the overall index return is marked by the $SPX ticker in the upper left of the “Carpet.” The time period is from the last close of 2006 to today’s close.
http://billakanodoodahs.com/
Despite the CNBC Bubblevision anchors’ “downloading” over a new closing high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the action has looked decidedly range-bound over the last month. The S&P 500, which I think is marginally more relevant than the Industrials, is still within 2% of its November highs. Additionally, there were several days of action below the 26ema, which is something that hadn’t really happened much since August. Is “the market” stalling out? The real story is a bit deeper than that.
Stockcharts.com has some wonderful tools. One of the least-used tools appears to be the “Market Carpet,” which can show returns for a huge number of stocks at one time, allowing you to visually identify via color which ones have various returns over periods from 2 to 45 days. I have assembled a modest list of sector/industry indices and ETFs which I’ve been using to track the ongoing sector rotation. I think it speaks for itself. Note that the overall index return is marked by the $SPX ticker in the upper left of the “Carpet.” The time period is from the last close of 2006 to today’s close.
http://billakanodoodahs.com/
weatherweenie
Well-known member
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. Early indications suggest yesterday's lackluster action may carry over into this morning's open. Tech bellwether Intel (INTC) is down 4% in pre-market action after saying gross margins will narrow in 2007. On a positive note, JP Morgan Chase (JPM) handily topped Wall Street expectations while fellow Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG) looks to open at a new all-time high after being upgraded at Goldman Sachs. However, Intel's margin pressures along with monthly PPI data hitting the wires at 8:30 ET, especially given the Fed's focus on inflation, are underpinning a sense of nervousness.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that its Producer Price Index, which measures cost pressures before they reach the consumer, rose by 0.9 percent in December, down sharply from a 2 percent jump in November which had been the biggest one-month increase since November 1974.
For the whole year, wholesale prices were up just 1.1 percent, down sharply from the 5.4 percent surge in 2005, reflecting a slowdown in the surge in energy costs.
For the whole year, wholesale prices were up just 1.1 percent, down sharply from the 5.4 percent surge in 2005, reflecting a slowdown in the surge in energy costs.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.2.
James48843
Well-known member
From govexec.com today-
DAILY BRIEFING
January 16, 2007
Thrift Savings Plan hacker attack prompts extra precautions
By Karen Rutzick
krutzick@govexec.com
Hackers breached the accounts of some Thrift Savings Plan participants in late December, stealing $35,000 and prompting officials to encourage extra safeguards.
Officials with the 401(k)-style retirement savings plan for federal employees said every participant who was affected by the theft have been notified. Computers of about 25 participants were infected with software that allowed hackers to record their keystrokes and find their TSP personal identification numbers.
TSP officials are working with the Secret Service to find the perpetrators. Speaking at a TSP Board meeting Tuesday, Executive Director Gary Amelio encouraged participants to install a protective program on their computers to block unwanted spyware and to log off of the TSP Web site when finished accessing their accounts.
"We urge you to do this," Amelio said.
Amelio stressed that the TSP system itself was not breached. TSP officials posted two announcements on the Web site that must be read before participants can access their accounts. One details the security breach and the other is a warning that only TSP participants can use the site in order, Amelio said, to inflict stronger legal penalties on hackers.
When TSP officials became aware of the theft, they temporarily blocked electronic transfers out of the plan, because the criminals electronically sent the money to their own accounts.
Amelio spoke out about the breach on the same day that his staff released full results from the first survey of TSP participants since 1991. The survey revealed that participants prefer using the Internet to access their accounts. Forty-nine percent access their accounts online at home and 39 percent access them online at work.
In addition, survey respondents indicated they would like more choices in the plan. Sixty percent of respondents said they agreed that the TSP would be better if there was a Roth 401(k) option, which would allow investors to pay taxes at the time of investment instead of when they take their money out upon retirement. Only 11 percent disagreed, and 16 percent were neutral.
Many respondents also said the plan would be better if there were more investment options to supplement the six funds that exist now. Forty-six percent of respondents said they agreed that the plan would be better with more funds, while 19 percent disagreed and 24 percent were neutral.
But when TSP participants were asked if they wanted more options even if it would cost them more, the numbers went down. Right now, TSP participants only pay administrative costs of $4 for every $10,000 they have in their accounts, much lower than the costs of similar plans.
Board members recently hired outside consulting firm Ennis Knupp & Associates of Chicago for advice on whether the plan should have more funds. In November, the firm recommended against doing so. Board members also have been in a legislative battle to block a heavily lobbied bill to add a Real Estate Investment Trust fund to the plan. The bill has not yet been reintroduced in the 110th Congress.
More than half of survey respondents said they would want the REIT fund if costs stayed the same and about 25 percent said they wanted the fund even if it would cost more. About 20 percent of respondents said they did not want the extra fund.
Amelio and board members said they will examine the survey results as they decide upon next steps for the plan, but they said the TSP is not a democracy.
This document is located at http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0107/011607r1.htm
DAILY BRIEFING
January 16, 2007
Thrift Savings Plan hacker attack prompts extra precautions
By Karen Rutzick
krutzick@govexec.com
Hackers breached the accounts of some Thrift Savings Plan participants in late December, stealing $35,000 and prompting officials to encourage extra safeguards.
Officials with the 401(k)-style retirement savings plan for federal employees said every participant who was affected by the theft have been notified. Computers of about 25 participants were infected with software that allowed hackers to record their keystrokes and find their TSP personal identification numbers.
TSP officials are working with the Secret Service to find the perpetrators. Speaking at a TSP Board meeting Tuesday, Executive Director Gary Amelio encouraged participants to install a protective program on their computers to block unwanted spyware and to log off of the TSP Web site when finished accessing their accounts.
"We urge you to do this," Amelio said.
Amelio stressed that the TSP system itself was not breached. TSP officials posted two announcements on the Web site that must be read before participants can access their accounts. One details the security breach and the other is a warning that only TSP participants can use the site in order, Amelio said, to inflict stronger legal penalties on hackers.
When TSP officials became aware of the theft, they temporarily blocked electronic transfers out of the plan, because the criminals electronically sent the money to their own accounts.
Amelio spoke out about the breach on the same day that his staff released full results from the first survey of TSP participants since 1991. The survey revealed that participants prefer using the Internet to access their accounts. Forty-nine percent access their accounts online at home and 39 percent access them online at work.
In addition, survey respondents indicated they would like more choices in the plan. Sixty percent of respondents said they agreed that the TSP would be better if there was a Roth 401(k) option, which would allow investors to pay taxes at the time of investment instead of when they take their money out upon retirement. Only 11 percent disagreed, and 16 percent were neutral.
Many respondents also said the plan would be better if there were more investment options to supplement the six funds that exist now. Forty-six percent of respondents said they agreed that the plan would be better with more funds, while 19 percent disagreed and 24 percent were neutral.
But when TSP participants were asked if they wanted more options even if it would cost them more, the numbers went down. Right now, TSP participants only pay administrative costs of $4 for every $10,000 they have in their accounts, much lower than the costs of similar plans.
Board members recently hired outside consulting firm Ennis Knupp & Associates of Chicago for advice on whether the plan should have more funds. In November, the firm recommended against doing so. Board members also have been in a legislative battle to block a heavily lobbied bill to add a Real Estate Investment Trust fund to the plan. The bill has not yet been reintroduced in the 110th Congress.
More than half of survey respondents said they would want the REIT fund if costs stayed the same and about 25 percent said they wanted the fund even if it would cost more. About 20 percent of respondents said they did not want the extra fund.
Amelio and board members said they will examine the survey results as they decide upon next steps for the plan, but they said the TSP is not a democracy.
This document is located at http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0107/011607r1.htm
weatherweenie
Well-known member
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.2. Early indications currently point to a mixed open for stocks. The disparity between buyers and sellers can be attributed to mixed earnings news and the impending arrival of several key economic reports. Apple (AAPL) had a blowout report last night, but its disappointing Q2 guidance is fueling more uncertainty throughout Technology. Merrill Lynch (MER) also handily topped Wall Street expectations, but its record results are helping S&P 500 futures maintain a slightly positive bias.Of the economic data that may help set a more definitive tone to trading, the influential CPI report tops today's list, especially after yesterday's stronger than expected PPI data raised concerns about inflation at the wholesale level. Also garnering attention at 8:30 ET will be Dec. Housing Starts and Building Permits as well as Initial Claims.
VirginiaBob
Member
CPI index numbers to be released today:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070118/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy
any ideas on the effect?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070118/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy
any ideas on the effect?
weatherweenie
Well-known member
08:34 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Futures trade weakens within the last few minutes, taking a bearish cue from a sell-off in Treasuries following a batch of economic data. Total CPI rose 0.5% in December (consensus 0.4%) while the closely-watched core rate (ex-food and energy) rose 0.2%, matching forecasts. Dec. Housing starts unexpectedly rose 4.5% to 1.642 mln (consensus 1.57 mln) while building permits rose 5.5% to 1.596 mln (consensus 1.51 mln), reflective of more stabilization in housing. Initial claims unexpectedly fell 8K to 290K (consensus 315K), suggesting no weakness in labor conditions and lending credence to concerns about wage-based inflation. Bonds, which were down slightly ahead of the data, are weakening as the 10-yr note is now down 8 ticks to yield 4.80%.
USM just headed straight down. All I can find is:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=39100.4169002894-887259144BERNANKE WARNS U.S. BUDGET DEFICITS MAY IMPERIL ECONOMY
at: http://www.marketwatch.com/
Is there something else going on??
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=39100.4169002894-887259144BERNANKE WARNS U.S. BUDGET DEFICITS MAY IMPERIL ECONOMY
at: http://www.marketwatch.com/
Is there something else going on??
I was going to agree with you there for a minute Birch but I caught myself just in time. I do agree a lot of the smartest money I know is very worried, but this week we are finally seeing some extreme bullish readings in the AAII sentiment survey.
Bulls 58%
Bears 27%
This was one of the pieces of the puzzles that had been missing for a pullback.
I do agree a lot of the smartest money I know is very worried, but this week we are finally seeing some extreme bullish readings in the AAII sentiment survey.Bulls 58%
Bears 27%
This was one of the pieces of the puzzles that had been missing for a pullback.
Birchtree
Well-known member
The individual investor might be bullish in intention but not in action - they have yet to make a solid move into the market. Waiting for Godot I think. Once we get a buy confirmation on the Dow Theory they will start buying because they'll feel safer. This market is coiled and torqued to explode and I want to blast off - I'm buckeled tight. Somebody is rotating out of tech and will be looking at large caps - IMHO. There is no top in sight - nor a deep well. And from past history one has to recognize that the energy sector is generally the last group of stocks to advance as we make an overall market top. They will take awhile to get back to their highs - gives the market some more room to run. Patiently waiting on the next impulse.
