Stocks chopped around quite a bit on Wednesday, which isn't bad action considering the recent spike higher. The Dow lost just 3-points, but small caps saw some more stiff losses.
The bailout deal was approved in Greece, so perhaps that is finally behind us... at least until their next payment is due, anyway.
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The I-fund led the TSP stock funds with a small gain, and bonds rallied attempting to fill an overhead gap.
The rebound in China's Shanghai hit resistance and is pulling back again, so this issue is still ongoing. It's down another 1.5% as I write this Wednesday night, but it is so volatile you never know where it will close given an intraday quote.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) was basically flat but that allowed it to close above the 50-day EMA for a third straight day. That's a good sign, but your eye is immediately drawn to that open gap as a possible pullback target. With the Greece situation behind us, perhaps we have a catalyst to go forward without filling the gap, but charts don't care about news in general. We have an improving technical picture right now, but there may or may not be some short-term volatility first to clean up the open gap situation.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) is basically a ditto, although the relative weakness yesterday is a bit of a yellow flag. It did manage to hold on and close above the 50-day EMA for a 3rd day. The prior two gaps were closed on day 3 and this is day 4, but gaps do tend to get filled.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index is still deep into a downtrend so I'm not too optimistic about the small bull flag that has been created, but it is a start and could be the beginning of something positive. Let's see it break to the upside first, and how it does against a double dose of resistance near 8350.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The weekly chart of the Nasdaq looks quite bullish as the major long-term support line held again. But that doesn't mean the open gaps won't get filled in the short-term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) was down slightly after rallying quite a bit in the prior 5 days. It has closed above the 50-day EMA for 2 days now, but gaps, gaps, gaps.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The German DAX, largely affected by the Greece deal, is making some technical headway. You can see the downtrend and the 50-day EMA has been broken for now, and that's 3 days above those key levels. There are some large gaps here as well, but now that the worst may be behind the Euro-zone, you would think the bulls would be enthusiastic again. But there's always the "buy the rumor, sell the news" possibility.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was up yesterday and nearly filled the overhead gap. But if that gap gets filled, it will be hitting the 200-day EMA. That could be a tough test, but the AGG is not yet officially in a bear market so if it can rally from here, it still has a chance to be forming a bottom. I don't know if I believe that, but it's still officially in a bull market - or neutral at worst.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The bailout deal was approved in Greece, so perhaps that is finally behind us... at least until their next payment is due, anyway.
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The I-fund led the TSP stock funds with a small gain, and bonds rallied attempting to fill an overhead gap.
The rebound in China's Shanghai hit resistance and is pulling back again, so this issue is still ongoing. It's down another 1.5% as I write this Wednesday night, but it is so volatile you never know where it will close given an intraday quote.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) was basically flat but that allowed it to close above the 50-day EMA for a third straight day. That's a good sign, but your eye is immediately drawn to that open gap as a possible pullback target. With the Greece situation behind us, perhaps we have a catalyst to go forward without filling the gap, but charts don't care about news in general. We have an improving technical picture right now, but there may or may not be some short-term volatility first to clean up the open gap situation.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) is basically a ditto, although the relative weakness yesterday is a bit of a yellow flag. It did manage to hold on and close above the 50-day EMA for a 3rd day. The prior two gaps were closed on day 3 and this is day 4, but gaps do tend to get filled.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index is still deep into a downtrend so I'm not too optimistic about the small bull flag that has been created, but it is a start and could be the beginning of something positive. Let's see it break to the upside first, and how it does against a double dose of resistance near 8350.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The weekly chart of the Nasdaq looks quite bullish as the major long-term support line held again. But that doesn't mean the open gaps won't get filled in the short-term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) was down slightly after rallying quite a bit in the prior 5 days. It has closed above the 50-day EMA for 2 days now, but gaps, gaps, gaps.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The German DAX, largely affected by the Greece deal, is making some technical headway. You can see the downtrend and the 50-day EMA has been broken for now, and that's 3 days above those key levels. There are some large gaps here as well, but now that the worst may be behind the Euro-zone, you would think the bulls would be enthusiastic again. But there's always the "buy the rumor, sell the news" possibility.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was up yesterday and nearly filled the overhead gap. But if that gap gets filled, it will be hitting the 200-day EMA. That could be a tough test, but the AGG is not yet officially in a bear market so if it can rally from here, it still has a chance to be forming a bottom. I don't know if I believe that, but it's still officially in a bull market - or neutral at worst.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
