MARCON
Adjusting to Trend Change
Adjusting to Trend Change
For stocks, last week's channels have been removed as they were pushed past the 6-month window this system is based on. Even though these are new channels, MARCON's checks and balances keep the overall picture the same.
The weakest chart this week is the Transportation average. Often seen as the market leader (and for good reason) it's well known this index has been struggling at these post-2007 nose-bleed levels. I currently give this chart a 56% bullish reading and that's fairly accurate across broad measurement techniques I use. Regardless, there are 3 things I think you should know.
1. As long as prices remain above the 2 white circles, this chart is sideways to weak-but-bullish.
2. Looking at the 2 white squares, The last high was higher and the last low was lower. My interpretation of this is that the trend is in a state undecided volatility.
3. Looking at the trading range from the 2 white squares, we've failed to close above a 50% retracement not once, but TWICE.
The channel on the S&P 500 has broken with more than 3 closes below the 6-month dominant trendline. Therefore, I've downgraded the trend to blue. In the bigger picture it's still bullish with a 64% reading, so long as the bottom trend line holds we should be fine.
The S-Fund is the strongest of the American charts with a 72% reading. We can see the channel has been broken several times, but by my grading criteria I'm not ready to downgrade the channel just yet. We do have potential for a bear flag here, but as long as the blue line remains intact I wouldn't sweat it too much.
Based on the 6-month timeframe, AGG has a 48% reading. I'm not going to dwell on this chart, the overall picture remains the same.
Sorry I don't have enough room to post the I-Fund's charts. With a reading of 78% they are the strongest charts this week, due in part to the dollar. Amazingly enough, while all the American charts have tested or broken their channels, the I-Fund's charts have not. Currently trading at 76.40, be aware the Dollar is approaching a major double bottom at 75.63 and a major bounce off that level could send the I-Fund down.
Watch oil (duh)
