madfcstr's Account Talk

[mojo]

Welcome

CP should get a recruiting bonus.

 

[steveg]

Yeah -- he SHOULD get a recruiting bonus. That guy has so much energy it's amazing. I had been a total "buy and hold C-fund" person my entire career. While that's still my general tendency, CP talked me out of just watching my TSP balance fall steadily...!

Once I became convinced, by all that was going on, that we were in for a major drop, and with CP's prodding was finally ready to vacate the market -- it was like late January or early February 2008. The S&P was at like 1325 or something. I was convinced we were headed for a major "down," mustered up all my guts, and sold. However, it turned out that I didn't have the mettle to follow through, so I bought back in. Had I just stuck with my guns...

However, thanks to CP -- I got back into the game, and now can "stomach" the buying and selling a bit better than before. I've saved myself probably 15% or so of the losses overall, which for me -- I'm happy with. I still think it's basically a crap shoot trying to "time the market," but if you can be smart about it, you can manage to make some positive moves at times, it seems. I don't think I'll ever be totally comfortable with it, though. I don't have the personality for it! CP, on the other hand, should be on the trading floor in Wall Street. He's got that personality!

Steve

 

[madfcstr]

Here's an interesting http://www.cnbc.com/id/29598949article by "Dr Doom" on CNBC this morning:

"...it'll probably get worse before it gets better. Those who believe in a second half recovery this year "are delusional" he says.

In fact, based on Roubini's calculations, we could conceivably see the S&P 500 at 500, the Dow at 5000."

I suspect we'll have a few bear market rallies before these numbers are reached.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Here's an interesting http://www.cnbc.com/id/29598949article by "Dr Doom" on CNBC this morning:

"...it'll probably get worse before it gets better. Those who believe in a second half recovery this year "are delusional" he says.

In fact, based on Roubini's calculations, we could conceivably see the S&P 500 at 500, the Dow at 5000."

I suspect we'll have a few bear market rallies before these numbers are reached.

Actually, this is probably a good contrarian indicator. When the market was tanking, they were saying to stay the course, because the market will turn around. Now that they are in the doom and gloom, it may be time to jump back in.