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Lostdawg's Account Talk
- Thread starter Lostdawg
- Start date
justbizness45
Member
Lostdawg, welcome to the MB!! Not a bad plan for the moment. Things are pretty volatile right now. Happy investing!!
Lostdawg
Member
Just watched a sound bite on cnnmoney. Talked about his guess that the S&P should bottom out at 786. While I or anyone can pull a number out of the hat, it does sound like more people are saying the bottom is still a ways a way. Weeks, months? That seems to be the real trillion dollar question.
Lostdawg
Member
Tossed 100% into C on the morning of the 30th (Thursday). Figured I'd try it for the end of the month. Friday got a small rise, so hopefully Monday will be even and I can jump back to G. I'm sure it will tank by Wednesday, after the Dems take over. Since I'm just starting out, it wasn't like I'm throwing a ton around. So a little test to see how the process works.
Lostdawg
Member
Well my Halloween predict was spot on. To bad I couldn't get on a machine to pull back into G like I wanted. Lesson learned on that. Just plopped some extra money into G and had to adjust my percentages. C money will ride till it's a positive return.
I'm guessing I'm at G 39% and C 61%. Have to see how the market plays out tomorrow to see the final percentage breakdown. Not looking good though for the S&P. I jumped into C at 954.09 and it's below 900 again.
Now would be a good time for buy and hold, but I'm going to wait for 850 and see how I feel at that point.
Well let's see what November brings.
I'm guessing I'm at G 39% and C 61%. Have to see how the market plays out tomorrow to see the final percentage breakdown. Not looking good though for the S&P. I jumped into C at 954.09 and it's below 900 again.
Now would be a good time for buy and hold, but I'm going to wait for 850 and see how I feel at that point.
Well let's see what November brings.
Lostdawg
Member
Jumped 100% into I fund a few days ago. Was sitting in G for a spell waiting for a window. My reasoning for the jump? I just noted that I fund was near it's bottom of late. Thinking the new Trillion dollar fiasco would hurt the $, I thought this was an opportune time to dive in to the foreign side. C and S just seem to be going sideways and even if they rise a bit, I'm sure it won't last long. No super secret knowledge, just a gut feeling.
Later.
Later.
Lostdawg
Member
Just for personal tracking. Missed the noon cutoff yesterday for jumping into the S fund and it won't take effect till COB today (14th). This is a good thing as the markets are diving south as I type this. But I did make the tracker cutoff yesterday 
. My numbers will be soured a bit but, that's no big. Numbers were 19.82% today so probably should be 19.83% on COB, not whatever the big drop makes them. Overall this is not my real % anyway, as I've been throwing money in every payday. So true % on investment is not quite that good (but still pretty sweet). My real money will benefit from this down day by nabbing quite a few more shares 
.
. My numbers will be soured a bit but, that's no big. Numbers were 19.82% today so probably should be 19.83% on COB, not whatever the big drop makes them. Overall this is not my real % anyway, as I've been throwing money in every payday. So true % on investment is not quite that good (but still pretty sweet). My real money will benefit from this down day by nabbing quite a few more shares .
Lostdawg
Member
Out to the G. I'm hoping to catch that gap and jump back in. I think I've been greedy enough and it's time to take a step back and look at where to go in next.
I could easily miss a nice little rise, but I'm sure one way or another I will be back in below my "out point" shortly. I'm quite sure January will provide plenty of opportunity if next week doesn't.
Learned a lot this year from the board and a heartfelt thanks to all for that. Wish everyone a Merry Christmas, I have an evening watch to get ready for.
I could easily miss a nice little rise, but I'm sure one way or another I will be back in below my "out point" shortly. I'm quite sure January will provide plenty of opportunity if next week doesn't.
Learned a lot this year from the board and a heartfelt thanks to all for that. Wish everyone a Merry Christmas, I have an evening watch to get ready for.
Lostdawg
Member
Into the fray (I fund).
Well since jumping to G just before xmas, I've been patiently waiting.
Based on what I've calculated with my own little pot of green...
S fund is about even with where I would be if I had shifted to S vice G at xmas.
C fund is lower but the profit is not as big as the I fund potential.
All things given, I see more chance for the dollar going south than the S&P going way north.
So, ticked that I had missed that I fund low share price last week, just can't sit in G anymore with the chance to get in I fund at this price point.
One camp says it's going up, the other says it's going down. Whatever, I'll jump out of I when I make a predetermined profit. Time is on my side (stolen from the Rolling Stones).
Have a safe weekend. I'm off to save humanity on a Friday late watch
.
Well since jumping to G just before xmas, I've been patiently waiting.
Based on what I've calculated with my own little pot of green...
S fund is about even with where I would be if I had shifted to S vice G at xmas.
C fund is lower but the profit is not as big as the I fund potential.
All things given, I see more chance for the dollar going south than the S&P going way north.
So, ticked that I had missed that I fund low share price last week, just can't sit in G anymore with the chance to get in I fund at this price point.
One camp says it's going up, the other says it's going down. Whatever, I'll jump out of I when I make a predetermined profit. Time is on my side (stolen from the Rolling Stones).
Have a safe weekend. I'm off to save humanity on a Friday late watch
.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Re: Into the fray (I fund).
Beware of the +FV tonight if we go green this afternoon.
Well since jumping to G just before xmas, I've been patiently waiting.
Based on what I've calculated with my own little pot of green...
S fund is about even with where I would be if I had shifted to S vice G at xmas.
C fund is lower but the profit is not as big as the I fund potential.
All things given, I see more chance for the dollar going south than the S&P going way north.
So, ticked that I had missed that I fund low share price last week, just can't sit in G anymore with the chance to get in I fund at this price point.
One camp says it's going up, the other says it's going down. Whatever, I'll jump out of I when I make a predetermined profit. Time is on my side (stolen from the Rolling Stones).
Have a safe weekend. I'm off to save humanity on a Friday late watch
Beware of the +FV tonight if we go green this afternoon.
Lostdawg
Member
What a Difference a Fresh 52-Week High Makes ...
An optimistic read I liked this evening.
Though I jumped into S not C.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/19779/what-a-difference-a-fresh-52-week-high-makes-
An optimistic read I liked this evening.
Though I jumped into S not C.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/19779/what-a-difference-a-fresh-52-week-high-makes-
Lostdawg
Member
Would A Government Shutdown Boost the Market?
Some thoughts.
Would A Government Shutdown Boost the Market?
http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/04/06/would-a-government-shutdown-boost-the-market/
Some thoughts.
Would A Government Shutdown Boost the Market?
http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/04/06/would-a-government-shutdown-boost-the-market/
Lostdawg
Member
Modern portfolio theory is harming your portfolio
Very interesting and informative read.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY IS HARMING YOUR PORTFOLIO
Very interesting and informative read.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY IS HARMING YOUR PORTFOLIO
Lostdawg
Member
I don’t post much because I don’t think I have much expertise to offer, but I figured I get these thoughts out of my head and maybe they will help somebody else or get a response to something I’ve missed.
One thing first. The G fund to me is not a place to make money. It is a place to avoid losing money. It works for me. I don’t trust Bonds because the manipulation can wipe out a month of gains in a day or two. Not that the markets can’t, but well I just don't like bonds.
Now on to what I wanted to post in the first place.
So, I sat on the sidelines through that October run up. I just couldn’t see the risk/reward as worthwhile on any given day. Not happy about it, but it’s in the rear view mirror (sort of) now. This coming week could be interesting. One of the scenarios I've been looking at could start and give the C or S fund a possible play. Will we get a small leg back up approaching the 200 dma (SPY) and then a fall for a new low for the year? Or will we just keep plodding lower into the new low? Or find a new trading range?
Personally, anything approaching a Bullish run up to the end of the year just doesn't make any sense to me. I don’t care what Santa says, take a look at the jpg link below and think about it. I do like contrarian ideas, but still... if it does rise and I bite, then I’d jump near the 200 dma. Of course maybe everyone else might think this too.
One play I'd love to make is with the “I fund”, but it still has a way to spiral IMHO. But a magic rabbit could be found hiding in somebody’s European press conference and give us a week or two of pop. I don’t think that will happen till some key meetings in early-mid December. This would be taking a big risk to get ahead of the herd though. Euro politics and power grabbing are just as bad as ours, if not worse. Could this be the way Germany finally conquers Europe?
The I fund has a 24% weighting in financials and that makes the following extremely relevant for price:
The US Dollar is on an upswing (DXYO 79.83). One article I read said this Bullish Dollar could go on for about 17 weeks total. Was a trending/cycle thing. Out of my league on that one.
Europe is snapping a strand at a time. Last week we saw Belgium downgrade ala Dexia SA, Italy/Spain Bond prices, and Germany unable to find buyers. Sure I missed some other important developments.
- Belgium, Slovenia, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and Greece have all had their credit rating cut this year, and Japan is being looked at as well now. Hungary to Junk status.
Not all of these are countries that directly relate to EFA but they all weigh in on the mess.
EFA is sitting at 0.16 above the low it set back on 7 June of 2010. The next lower low was in July of 2009.
Tasty prices, but when it finally bottoms it could be a nice ride up.
As for the USA…this jpg sums up our reality till 2013 and maybe beyond. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2011/Nov/or33__01__600.jpg
I don’t argue politics because for me it’s a waste of time. I follow this board for insights for my TSP. And duly appreciate CH and Tom’s blogs, much thanks to both of you.
One thing first. The G fund to me is not a place to make money. It is a place to avoid losing money. It works for me. I don’t trust Bonds because the manipulation can wipe out a month of gains in a day or two. Not that the markets can’t, but well I just don't like bonds.
Now on to what I wanted to post in the first place.
So, I sat on the sidelines through that October run up. I just couldn’t see the risk/reward as worthwhile on any given day. Not happy about it, but it’s in the rear view mirror (sort of) now. This coming week could be interesting. One of the scenarios I've been looking at could start and give the C or S fund a possible play. Will we get a small leg back up approaching the 200 dma (SPY) and then a fall for a new low for the year? Or will we just keep plodding lower into the new low? Or find a new trading range?
Personally, anything approaching a Bullish run up to the end of the year just doesn't make any sense to me. I don’t care what Santa says, take a look at the jpg link below and think about it. I do like contrarian ideas, but still... if it does rise and I bite, then I’d jump near the 200 dma. Of course maybe everyone else might think this too.
One play I'd love to make is with the “I fund”, but it still has a way to spiral IMHO. But a magic rabbit could be found hiding in somebody’s European press conference and give us a week or two of pop. I don’t think that will happen till some key meetings in early-mid December. This would be taking a big risk to get ahead of the herd though. Euro politics and power grabbing are just as bad as ours, if not worse. Could this be the way Germany finally conquers Europe?
The I fund has a 24% weighting in financials and that makes the following extremely relevant for price:
The US Dollar is on an upswing (DXYO 79.83). One article I read said this Bullish Dollar could go on for about 17 weeks total. Was a trending/cycle thing. Out of my league on that one.
Europe is snapping a strand at a time. Last week we saw Belgium downgrade ala Dexia SA, Italy/Spain Bond prices, and Germany unable to find buyers. Sure I missed some other important developments.
- Belgium, Slovenia, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and Greece have all had their credit rating cut this year, and Japan is being looked at as well now. Hungary to Junk status.
Not all of these are countries that directly relate to EFA but they all weigh in on the mess.
EFA is sitting at 0.16 above the low it set back on 7 June of 2010. The next lower low was in July of 2009.
Tasty prices, but when it finally bottoms it could be a nice ride up.
As for the USA…this jpg sums up our reality till 2013 and maybe beyond. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2011/Nov/or33__01__600.jpg
I don’t argue politics because for me it’s a waste of time. I follow this board for insights for my TSP. And duly appreciate CH and Tom’s blogs, much thanks to both of you.
Lostdawg
Member
Thanks Birch, I guess I was secretly hoping for a little more negativity. But the big guys decided enough was enough this morning. Jumping into I with an above 50 in the EFA. That Saturday diatribe was a result of talking myself out of this move last week. Shall now go smack myself in the head.
Lostdawg
Member
Taking the opportunity to get out of I fund with some positive gains. Took much longer than I cared for, over a month and a half. Shall now wait and see for the next chance to jump back in. Still, given all the payments into the I fund while I waited patiently...netted about .60 plus cents a share give or take. Have to see what the close tonight looks like to see the exact amount. I had jumped in at a top after talking myself out of jumping in at what ended up being a bottom! So I'm just happy to get some fresh air.
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