Longstreet's Account Talk

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Well, today should be interesting. With the pick-up in inflation numbers, there is a lot of chatter out there about a more hawkish tone coming from the Fed later in the day on interest rates. If that happens, I would imagine downward pressure on the market would materialize. However, if it doesn't happen, I could see a large exhale and upward movement. Given how the price action has withstood some less than stellar (being generous here) housing and retail numbers lately, it could be a pretty solid move up. I don't know what time the statement from the Fed comes out, but I assume it will be after the 12:00 deadline.

Currently, my toe is dipped in at 15% C and 85% G (bought the latest "mini" dip a few days ago). Obviously, I'm being extremely cautious at the current moment and doing an IFT now for tomorrow based on a coin flip of what the Fed will say is inconsistent with that caution. If they come out more hawkish and the markets head down, I will look at it as a potential buying opportunity at some point. If they come out with continued dovishness, I am expecting to increase my allocation somewhat for a short time period.

So far this year, I'm at a riveting 2.99%. My goal coming into the year was >7.3% (based on comfort level at beginning year prices), thus, I will be trailing at the coming 6 month point. I've been in G most of the year and have bought the dips as they have presented themselves. Even then I have been cautious, taking a small incremental approach of increasing my overall position in the market as it slides down. I have little confidence in the ability of this market to sustain the prices they are currently at, but am pragmatic enough to know that they can stay elevated for long periods of time. Thus, I'm trying to have it both ways in terms of elevated risk management and making some gains. Since the markets have generally gone up this year, I've somewhat paid the price for it with lagging returns, but not so lagging as to kick myself in the junk or to make my yearly goal unattainable.

Given how the market has shrugged off the latest retail and housing numbers, it just doesn't seem ready to falter in a big way as of yet. We shall see what the news from today brings.
 
Well, on the bright side I'm 15% in the C-fund, so it looks like I will be making around a .12% daily gain. Peanuts, I know. Overall, I firmly believe the markets are overpriced, but there is no doubt that we are short-term bullish. The lack of downward price pressure from bad retail sales/housing numbers, coupled with Iraq, and now the shooting up after the Fed meetings press conference gives credence to this. Now the question is.....do we shoot so high today and tomorrow that it takes Friday out as an opportunity to put more in?
 
IFT from 67G/33C to 90G/10C. Didn't get the momentum I was hoping for and since I wasn't that comfortable with the play to begin with, going to bail on it. Currently at 3.14% on the year and if things stay the same by COB today, will be at 3.19ish. Yes auto tracker leaders, you have nothing to fear.....
 
That was quite the downward revision on GDP. It seems to me that:

1. Some very good and smart analysts forgot how to estimate GDP.
2. The analysts aren't that good and/or smart.
3. Number fudging.

None of the above give me much comfort. Considering it was the largest revision since I believe 1977, I tend to believe #3.

Why the markets didn't melt down from the news is interesting. While I realize some will say the negative GDP number was "priced in", I believe it is safe to say that -2.9% (versus -1.0%) wasn't.
 
Does anybody have any thoughts on potential market action on Wednesday? I'm looking for an entry point and it seems to me that the day after the election would be good for stocks based on the fact that future uncertainty would be eliminated, particularly if Republicans take control of the Senate. Momentum is clearly with the bulls right now and I would suspect this would add to it. Thoughts?
 
Longstreet said:
Does anybody have any thoughts on potential market action on Wednesday? I'm looking for an entry point and it seems to me that the day after the election would be good for stocks based on the fact that future uncertainty would be eliminated, particularly if Republicans take control of the Senate. Momentum is clearly with the bulls right now and I would suspect this would add to it. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Also all a matter of perspective. I think that would ADD uncertainty as it would change the nature of the balances in the House, Senate and Executive Office. We know how much partisanship has already played into legislative grid-lock...now you are talking about the possibility of an even more partisan Congress and 2 years of "lame duck" Presidency. That said, you never know what random bills will have enough random pork to get the random support of the Congress Critters. So, like I said, it's all a matter of perspective.
 
Question about <1% transfers.

Scenario:

Total Account Balance: $100,000
G Fund: $80,000 (80%)
C Fund:20,000 (20%)
Interfund Transfers completed for the month: 2

I have used up all my Interfund transfers for the month but man, the market is tanking and I want to buy into it. However, it's Friday and I am getting $400 bucks contributed into my TSP. For that contribution, I do:

$100 (25%) L2050
$100 (25%) L2040
$100 (25%) L2030
$100 (25%) L2020

Now, I have amounts in each, but only .001% of my total in each L Fund and I'm not even sure that it would show up as a percentage on my TSP homepage. Anyway, can I do a transfer to 1% for each one of them since I do have a balance in each? Or, is there some kind of .01% threshold? Bueller, Bueller, Bueller.....?
 
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