Longstreet's Account Talk

[Longstreet]

Hello to all!

First off, I wanted to thank all of you for posting on this site and sharing your knowledge and insights. I appreciate the wide breadth of opinions/strategy here and that is what attracted me to the site to begin with.

I have 4 years of prior military service and 9 years of current Fed Service working for DoD. I'm 41, have very low 6 figures in TSP, and contribute 5% and receive the 5% match. I would contribue more, but I have 4 kids (including twins who are 7 months old), and amazingly enough, they drain some of the resources. :cheesy: As they get older and mommy goes back into the workforce, I will increase to what I was doing before (10% contribution).

I'm fairly aggressive by nature, but currently am very cautious in the market (10% C and 90% G). In this environment, I plan to average down when the market declines. Of course, I screwed up a few weeks ago and bought more into the market the day before it began its downward action. Not a lot, but enough to spook me into sucking my thumb and doing nothing when I should have bought more. I lost discipline and paid a price....imagine that.

So, again, hello to everyone and good luck! If I've learned anything in the past few years from the market, we all could use a little!!

 

[JTH]

Welcome, thanks for checking in!

 

[Frixxxx]

Welcome Longstreet,

Budget, you need one, and fast. You will quickly lose track of finances if you don't. Also, did you buy back your military time? If not, please go and get the forms to start the process. I know you are benefiting from the +4 years for TAFMSD (leave calculation), but you will want those four years when it comes to retirement. Also use the calculator on TSP.gov that estimates putting more into TSP and how it will affect your paycheck.
https://www.tsp.gov/planningtools/paycheck/paycheckEstimator.shtml

Welcome to the boards, and good luck!

Frixxxx

 

[nnuut]

Welcome to the Forum Longstreet!!
Best of luck with your TSP>
Norman

 

[Whipsaw]

Hey! Welcome! The more the merrier; always need new ideas and perspectives

 

[czapor1967]

Welcome, there are a LOT of terrific people here!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Welcome, there are a LOT of terrific people here!

I'm not one of them... but welcome nonetheless

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S4 using tapatalk...

 

[ravensfan]

Welcome to the Forum Longstreet. Lots of smart people here. You will definately benefit from the experience.

 

[Longstreet]

Today's price action looks to me like market fatigue/malaise. You would think Facebook and Apple's results would have propelled the markets much higher than they have, particularly given the sideways action of the year. If you have a pent up market ready to burst out, such results should have given it some serious propulsion. It reminds me of the guy who has a great workout and instead of feeling good, is exhausted the next day because he is overtrained. That's what I bring to the table......awful stock/workout analogies..........:laugh:

 

[Longstreet]

Currently, the Market Cap to GDP ratio stands at 116.8. The record high is 148.5.....achieved at the very end of the tech bubble in 2000. Obviously, we are far from that. But are we? I know I have read people on here and other places who say we are in a secular bull market, several more years of great returns, 2014 would see another 20-30% gain, etc, etc. So, how far away are we from the record high? Given a 2.5% GDP growth rate, we are about a 30% market return from it. Or, another 2013......or below some expectations that I have read. So, we aren't that far away from having the highest Market Cap to GDP ratio in the HISTORY OF THE MARKET.

Given anemic GDP growth, rising interest rate environment in the near distant future, stretched earnings, and already high Shiller PE ratio, I don't see a case for extended bliss for much longer. So, to me, I'm not going to kick myself too hard for missing this price action, as I'm farily confident we will see better buying buying opportunities in the future.....in spades. However, I'd like to make some money in 2014, so I'm hoping for some dips, the discipline to wait, and the wherewithal to buy them with some moderate cash amounts. Out of EFT's for the month, but watching price movement closely.

 

[Longstreet]

Limping in from 100%-G to 85%-G, 8%-C, 7%-S. If it goes down further, I have plenty of ammunition left. If it goes back up, I will cash some small gains in. Overall, I think the market is overheated and overpriced given the economic situation. However, I also know we can and have had a lot of volatillity and that can continue for awhile. So, I'm going to straddle the fence a bit, while still being positioned defensively.

 

[Longstreet]

Interfund transfer rule question: I am in "G" and out of Interfund transfers for the month. Since May 31st falls on a Saturday, can I do an Interfund transfer on the 31st (or Sunday the 1st) so that I'm "in the market" on Monday, June 2nd? Or, do I have to wait until the morning of June 2nd to do one so that I'm in on the 3rd? Basically, are interfund transfers driven by business days or calendar days? Thanks!

 

[nnuut]

After 12 NOON Friday it would be effective Tuesday, before noon Monday! If you are out of IFTs you can only go back in Monday and that would be effective Tuesday. In other words NO!

 

[Longstreet]

A couple of days of declines, open lower, consumer sentiment announced around 10 AM and declines badly, and then the market shoots up. You would have thought that news would have accelerated the declines, but then you would have been wrong. Odd.....

 

[Longstreet]

Maybe I am being simplistic here, but the consumer is the key. I would think consumer sentiment is a fairly decent read on future GDP growth.....if the consumer is hurting, than GDP growth will be less than stellar. GDP has to pick-up (more than an anemic 2%) for the market to keep RATIONALLY going up. If 2.5% GDP growth is the new "normal", then there is no way that the market should be at these levels. Additionally, we know interest rates are going to be increasing in the future, which will be a drag on future earnings. I'm not seeing a whole lot of economic momentum building here and coupled with the elevated market prices, it is indeed a very scary time. Of course, maybe the consumers are depressed from the cold weather and we can continue to blame that..... :suspicious:

 

[Longstreet]

A huge driver of growth, housing, disappoints yet again. We shall see if it dents the market or if the QE/FED drunk'n binge continues. It's amazing how actual news about the economy is presently being discounted. It doesn't take a market shooting up for exhuberance to be happening/holding.....

There have been no consistent news/data that points to growth that would sustain the current market prices and at some point, that will matter again.

 

[Birchtree]

"There is less need for self-standing suburban homes today and more for smaller, cheaper apartments. April's housing data reflected this, with multifamily starts up nearly 40% from a year earlier while single family ones barely changed."

 

[Longstreet]

"There is less need for self-standing suburban homes today and more for smaller, cheaper apartments. April's housing data reflected this, with multifamily starts up nearly 40% from a year earlier while single family ones barely changed."

Well, why is there more need for smaller, cheaper apartments? Is it because people like living in smaller, cheaper apartments or is it because they have less money to spend, which again, would point to less discretionary income, which clearly would put downward pressure on GDP. Retail sales were in the dumps last month as well. Is it because people like to shop less? People buying smaller, cheaper clothes?

"The drop-offs in starts and permits each exceeded the median forecasts of economists in Action Economics' survey. As the Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting Tuesday, the report could spark further debate about the housing market's strength and its ability to contribute more to the broader economic recovery.
"Today's data does not provide the kind of assurances that the Federal Reserve would like to see," said Mesirow Financial chief economist Diane Swonk. "The housing market, in particular, remains a question mark as it is not able to gain the traction the Fed expected to see by this time in the economic cycle."

 

[Birchtree]

Ah, that's why I've been buying furniture stocks for the last couple of years. Everybody needs furniture.

 

[Longstreet]

Ah, that's why I've been buying furniture stocks for the last couple of years. Everybody needs furniture.

lol. From what you write, you buy in just about every industry... :cheesy: