kar_crazy
Active member
just hope i am not too late to swim ashore
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kar crazy's Account Talk
- Thread starter kar_crazy
- Start date
felixthecat
Member
My reasons for going back to the lili pad:
Dollar will rebound in the short term resulting in equities slide
Vix was moving down around 22 which to me meant the stock market was becoming too complacent in this environment where we have come to far too fast. Forget the unemployment numbers, what goes up in a burst must come down...the law of gravity you know.
Continued constriction of volume as we reached new highs
Even though I don't have a history book on the C fund in front of me...I don't recall ever seeing so many month of positive returns in a row. Pullback in my opinion will stay with us in a seasaw pattern with lower highs and lower lows coming.
Smart money has been moving to the sideline and selling on up days.
These are just some of the things I see. I have not checked market returns in a long while over history, but 60 percent move up off the low is also disturbing on such a narrow timeframe. Too much for me to gamble all of my winnings.
My instinct tells me and I see some indications that those around me who rode out the market are getting out because they are willing to accept market gains up to this point.
We are just now beginning to see the pendulum shift. I've been in the market for over 20 years...one thing I can say is the market needs a dang breather here of at least 10 to 15 percent or we are going to get a bubble that will burst and carryover for through next year. So for now...I sit on the lili pad wishing we had more moves than we have right now. However, if this downtrend accelerates, that may be a good thing. Might be too tempted to get in too early. I simply cannot let the profits vanish though so I'll take the lili pad for now. :notrust:
Dollar will rebound in the short term resulting in equities slide
Vix was moving down around 22 which to me meant the stock market was becoming too complacent in this environment where we have come to far too fast. Forget the unemployment numbers, what goes up in a burst must come down...the law of gravity you know.
Continued constriction of volume as we reached new highs
Even though I don't have a history book on the C fund in front of me...I don't recall ever seeing so many month of positive returns in a row. Pullback in my opinion will stay with us in a seasaw pattern with lower highs and lower lows coming.
Smart money has been moving to the sideline and selling on up days.
These are just some of the things I see. I have not checked market returns in a long while over history, but 60 percent move up off the low is also disturbing on such a narrow timeframe. Too much for me to gamble all of my winnings.
My instinct tells me and I see some indications that those around me who rode out the market are getting out because they are willing to accept market gains up to this point.
We are just now beginning to see the pendulum shift. I've been in the market for over 20 years...one thing I can say is the market needs a dang breather here of at least 10 to 15 percent or we are going to get a bubble that will burst and carryover for through next year. So for now...I sit on the lili pad wishing we had more moves than we have right now. However, if this downtrend accelerates, that may be a good thing. Might be too tempted to get in too early. I simply cannot let the profits vanish though so I'll take the lili pad for now. :notrust:
WIND_HUNTER
Member
Great analysis Felix! My thoughts exactly.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Can't always have Steaks, sometimes you get SNAKES!! Let's see what they eat tomorrow?
WIND_HUNTER
Member
If there's going to be a train wreck, I wanta see it, not be in it. Sit back pop another cold and watch..:suspicious:
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
still miss this guy , white russian for M M cheers many miles on this MB
Looks like we might save some money today kc. Bad thing is, as of right now, I'm getting a buy signal...................
felixthecat
Member
The wheels on this cart are fixing to fall off. Already moved to GeeWiz. I saw someone post a rollercoaster pic in a recent thread going up to the top. That picture about say's it but my impression is that on the way down...the wheels will be off. Looking for a hard takedown within days. I have sense impending danger over the last couple of weeks. I usually don't cluck, "the sky is falling", but it is. I'm wating for the ugliness to come and then get back on the train. :worried:
felixthecat
Member
I do wish we had more moves to make. I'm satisified though that we made a good move here. I'm also concerned about coming back into the market too quickly after the market fall. Therefore, in some respect, glad I am out till December. The question is, once the downdraft momentum builds, where will we land.
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