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justbizness45's Account Talk
- Thread starter justbizness45
- Start date
justbizness45
Member
I'll make a decision in the morning but I am not in any rush. Part of my challenge is that I have to make all my decisions by 1100 ET. I am on the west coast and am in morning meetings 1100-1230 ET every day. So if the market is dropping again tomorrow AM I will probably jump in with the hopes resistance will hold around the July lows or above. Unless there is some really bad news to hold me out. What will probably happen is the the market will go up tomorrow and sell off Thurs/Fri which means I missed my entry and will have to wait. Whatever the decision it will be short term. I guess that is about as wishy washy as it could be. More tomorrow from the true rookie. JB45
justbizness45
Member
Well, at 1100 the market was not giving much indication which way it would go so I missed it going down. The S&P 1265 ish (ish is around plus or minus 5 in my book) point has been hit 4 time since 8/8 and held every time including today. I'm thinking that is becoming good resistance barring a major failure. So I am hoping the upside holds off another day but either way I am jumping in marginally tomorrow to ride next week.
I am still very cautious and trying to stay nimble. 50G/25S/25C by COB 9/4
justbizness45
Member
You certainly don't sound like a Rookie !
We will see how the tracker looks at the end of the month and you may change your opinion.
justbizness45
Member
1) I wanted to share this in case someone else is in a similar position: Every Sep for the past couple of years I look at my TSP contributions to make sure I don't go over the max and every year due to my slowly rising base I end up cutting a little out of contributions in Sep.
2) Now the rule in my household is don't mess with the bi-weekly check amount (unless it is going up) that is what the budget is based on.
3) This year I turn 50.
4) Today when I did my review, I had to drop my percentage but I put the dollar amount in catch up funds. That puts an extra $1200 into my account by the end of the year, I won't lose any matching funds and doesn't change the pay check.
Some may ask why I am just not doing the max $5000 catchup that I am eligible for and my answer is private college. My daughters school gets it for 3 more years. Anyway I wanted to share in case someone else couldn't figure a way to do some extra catch up contributions.
2) Now the rule in my household is don't mess with the bi-weekly check amount (unless it is going up) that is what the budget is based on.
3) This year I turn 50.
4) Today when I did my review, I had to drop my percentage but I put the dollar amount in catch up funds. That puts an extra $1200 into my account by the end of the year, I won't lose any matching funds and doesn't change the pay check.
Some may ask why I am just not doing the max $5000 catchup that I am eligible for and my answer is private college. My daughters school gets it for 3 more years. Anyway I wanted to share in case someone else couldn't figure a way to do some extra catch up contributions.
justbizness45
Member
Well, obviously the S&P fell out of the channel. Good news is I bought in 3% lower than I expected. Bad news is I'm holding and looking over a cliff. If you haven't seen it checkout Poolman's vid of the technical analysis of today. It's good info even a rookie can understand. I haven't made up my mind yet on what I will do tomorrow. Too much info out there and I'm trying to digest it all. I'm either a genius or an idiot for getting in today. More later, JB45.
JTH
Well-known member
Don't knock yourself down too hard there buddy
A lot of smart people bought in today, so you're not the only one. You're not that far from July's bottom and this thing can easily shoot back up like a rocket ship. Either ways, you jumped 3% ahead of stocks, and that can turn out to be an awesome gain and exit it timed right.
justbizness45
Member
Don't knock yourself down too hard there buddy
Either ways, you jumped 3% ahead of stocks, and that can turn out to be an awesome gain and exit it timed right.
If the unemployment report comes in over 5.7% I think the markets going to tank and test July's bottom. My stop loss point is going to be 1210. I hate to use my last IFT jumping out of the market 1 day later. But we have to make the best of our circumstances.....:suspicious:
Bad FRTIB, bad FRTIB...
JTH
Well-known member
If the unemployment report comes in over 5.7% I think the markets going to tank and test July's bottom. My stop loss point is going to be 1210. I hate to use my last IFT jumping out of the market 1 day later. But we have to make the best of our circumstances.....:suspicious:
Bad FRTIB, bad FRTIB...
True, but I have a hunch some of tomorrows bad news is already factored in. If you jump out now, you may get screwed over if this thing flips around. Mind you I'm not advising you to stay in, but I just don't see much more downside left before bargin buyers start stepping in. Either ways tomorrow will be an interesting day, I hope the best for everyone...
justbizness45
Member
justbizness45
Member
Wasn't today a fun ride? I almost lost my nerve and jumped back to G. Then I thought about L2R's quotes on fear and panic and decided to stay the course I had chosen. Thanks L2R!! In the tech analysis I've looked at, the 50dma and 20dma on the S&P are running together around 1260 ish. Soooo... if we can get up to 1260 I will bail and twiddle my thumbs again for a few weeks. Still 50G/25S/25C. 1 IFT remaining. I am also staying nimble and cautious. Have a great weekend everyone. JB45
Last edited:
justbizness45
Member
With the Fannie/Freddie takeover and futures up as high as they are I think I will try and take profits tomorrow if the markets are still up in the late morning. Unfortunately that will lock me in with no IFTs until Oct.
We must all deal with the restrictions placed upon us, but we don't have to like it!!:notrust: Like Norm I think Geeee may be the place to beeeee. Good luck to all invested next week. JB45
We must all deal with the restrictions placed upon us, but we don't have to like it!!:notrust: Like Norm I think Geeee may be the place to beeeee. Good luck to all invested next week. JB45
JTH
Well-known member
With the Fannie/Freddie takeover and futures up as high as they are I think I will try and take profits tomorrow if the markets are still up in the late morning. Unfortunately that will lock me in with no IFTs until Oct.
I'm in the same boat there brother and tend to agree that making a swift exit to G may be the best course of action.
Problem is, I've seen way too many IFTs made by 1200EST look good at the moment, then tank after lunch time
This is going to be one-hell-of-a tough call to make...
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I'm in the same boat there brother and tend to agree that making a swift exit to G may be the best course of action.
Problem is, I've seen way too many IFTs made by 1200EST look good at the moment, then tank after lunch time
This is going to be one-hell-of-a tough call to make...
If this rally fades tomorrow and the market tanks after noon...you might as well be out because there won't be a rally for a long time.
justbizness45
Member
I'm in the same boat there brother and tend to agree that making a swift exit to G may be the best course of action.
Problem is, I've seen way too many IFTs made by 1200EST look good at the moment, then tank after lunch time
This is going to be one-hell-of-a tough call to make...
True, do you believe there is an upside to next week after Monday? I don't see anything at the moment. I won't pull the trigger until I have but........
JTH
Well-known member
Problem is we don't have enough IFT's to follow through with the up-side after the crash...
My initial belief has always been that we would test July's lows, but after that it gets hazy.
My recent thinking WAS we would go back up to 1280 on the S&P, before heading back down again.
With all the recent news, I'm not very confident or wanting to risk my money in this bearish market.
Problem is that everyone will be thinking the same thing this Monday...
justbizness45
Member
ATCJeff
Well-known member
Should be an excellent move. I'll be glued to the TV and Internet this morning.
justbizness45
Member
Anyone got any thoughts on WaMu? Good investment at low price or closure waiting to happen?
AP
Washington Mutual removes CEO Kerry Killinger
Monday September 8, 6:23 pm ET
By Sara Lepro, AP Business Writer
Washington Mutual removes Chief Executive Kerry Killinger; former Sovereign exec is successor
NEW YORK (AP) -- Washington Mutual Inc., ravaged by losses from sour mortgages, removed Kerry Killinger as chief executive of the nation's largest savings and loan on Monday, adding him to the growing list of banking bosses ousted by their boards.
Killinger, 59, is being replaced by Alan H. Fishman, the former president and chief operating officer of Sovereign Bank and president and CEO of Independence Community Bank. Also Monday, WaMu said that it has entered into a memorandum of understanding with the Office of Thrift Supervision concerning aspects of its operations. WaMu has committed to provide the OTS with an updated, multiyear business plan and forecast for its earnings, asset quality, capital and business segment performance. The plan will not require the company to raise capital or increase liquidity, WaMu said.
WaMu shares fell 15 cents, or 3.5 percent, to close at $4.12, after dropping as much as 24 percent earlier in the session. Its shares have fallen 90 percent since early July of last year, right before the rapid erosion in the credit markets began.
Battered by rising mortgage delinquencies and defaults, and by the sinking value of its mortgage portfolio, WaMu has lost nearly 70 percent of its market value this year.
Killinger, who was stripped of his chairman title in June, became CEO of the Seattle-based thrift in 1990 and built WaMu into one of the country's largest banks. But with a heavy focus on subprime and option adjustable-rate mortgages -- the types of mortgages at the heart of the housing bust -- WaMu's losses began to mount and its shares plummeted, sparking an outcry from shareholders.
The board's splitting of the CEO and chairman roles in June was an effort, at the urging of shareholders, to improve corporate governance. At WaMu's shareholder meeting in April, a nonbinding resolution calling for the installation of a non-employee as board chairman passed with 51.5 percent of the votes.
But Killinger -- who received compensation valued at $14.4 million in 2007 -- held on to his post as CEO, even as the list of other top banking executives shown the door continued to grow.
After backing Killinger for so long, the board's sentiment finally changed.
"The board and Kerry mutually agreed that this was the right time for Kerry to leave the company," said spokesman Brad Russell in an e-mail to The Associated Press.
Killinger's exit follows that of Wachovia Corp. CEO Ken Thompson, Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Stanley O'Neal and Citigroup Inc.'s Charles Prince.
The 62-year-old Fishman became president and CEO of Brooklyn, N.Y.-based Independence in 2001. He later served as president and chief operating officer of Sovereign Bank after the Philadelphia-based bank bought Independence for $3.6 billion in cash in 2006.
"The board has great confidence in Alan's ability to lead WaMu," said Chairman Stephen E. Frank in a conference call with analysts, "and to return the company to profitability as quickly as possible."
Most recently, Fishman has served as chairman of privately held commercial mortgage brokerage Meridian Capital Group. Fishman said he will step down from this post.
While the management change may be long overdue, few are convinced it will prove a quick fix to the bank's ongoing problems.
"You have a bunch of people who were upset with Kerry Killinger and wanted him out of the company because of the huge mistakes he'd made over the last few years," said Richard Bove, a bank analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. But bringing in Fishman isn't necessarily going to change anything, Bove said.
"A new CEO can bring new energy, new perspective to a struggling company," said Moshe Orenbuch, an analyst at Credit Suisse, in an interview. "But they can't undo a loan that has been written already. What new management should be focusing on is making inroads into disposing its existing problem asset base."
In an interview with the AP, Fishman said his first three priorities are to review the balance sheet, review the income statement and review the brand. He said it is too early to comment on whether the bank will pursue any asset sales.
Some speculate that WaMu is ripe for a buyout, but a sale could prove to be difficult in this environment.
While the bank has an enviable West Coast bank branch footprint that would otherwise make them attractive to a potential buyer, it's hard to value the loan portfolio and that makes buying them very difficult, said Frederick Cannon, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.
Fishman, who would not comment on whether the bank would consider a buyout offer if one came to the table, stressed his belief in the value of the franchise.
"I share the board's confidence in WaMu's underlying strength," Fishman said during the conference call. "I know that we can and will manage the issues we face today."
WaMu's troubles largely stem from rising delinquencies among its "option" adjustable-rate mortgage loans. The bank stopped originating the negative amortizing loans, also called option ARM loans, in June. Option ARM loans offer very low introductory payments and let borrowers defer some interest payments until later years.
WaMu became one of the first retail banks to seek outside cash in the wake of the credit crisis when it agreed to sell equity securities to an investment fund managed by TPG Capital and to other investors this spring, raising $7.2 billion in fresh capital.
In July, the bank reported a $3 billion second-quarter loss -- the biggest quarterly loss in its history -- as it increased its loss reserves to more than $8 billion to cover bad loans.
The company expects cumulative losses in its residential mortgage portfolio to total $19 billion, the high end of previous guidance, and has said 2008 will be the peak year for provisioning.
During the second quarter, WaMu announced plans to exit the wholesale lending business and close all remaining standalone home loan centers, resulting in 3,000 job losses. The bank said it would instead focus its mortgage-originating efforts in its retail bank branches and Web site, and by expanding its call center operations. WaMu announced an additional 1,200 job cuts in June. Earlier this year, the bank slashed its quarterly dividend to 1 cent from 15 cents, which will result in savings of about $490 million a year.
AP
Washington Mutual removes CEO Kerry Killinger
Monday September 8, 6:23 pm ET
By Sara Lepro, AP Business Writer
Washington Mutual removes Chief Executive Kerry Killinger; former Sovereign exec is successor
NEW YORK (AP) -- Washington Mutual Inc., ravaged by losses from sour mortgages, removed Kerry Killinger as chief executive of the nation's largest savings and loan on Monday, adding him to the growing list of banking bosses ousted by their boards.
Killinger, 59, is being replaced by Alan H. Fishman, the former president and chief operating officer of Sovereign Bank and president and CEO of Independence Community Bank. Also Monday, WaMu said that it has entered into a memorandum of understanding with the Office of Thrift Supervision concerning aspects of its operations. WaMu has committed to provide the OTS with an updated, multiyear business plan and forecast for its earnings, asset quality, capital and business segment performance. The plan will not require the company to raise capital or increase liquidity, WaMu said.
WaMu shares fell 15 cents, or 3.5 percent, to close at $4.12, after dropping as much as 24 percent earlier in the session. Its shares have fallen 90 percent since early July of last year, right before the rapid erosion in the credit markets began.
Battered by rising mortgage delinquencies and defaults, and by the sinking value of its mortgage portfolio, WaMu has lost nearly 70 percent of its market value this year.
Killinger, who was stripped of his chairman title in June, became CEO of the Seattle-based thrift in 1990 and built WaMu into one of the country's largest banks. But with a heavy focus on subprime and option adjustable-rate mortgages -- the types of mortgages at the heart of the housing bust -- WaMu's losses began to mount and its shares plummeted, sparking an outcry from shareholders.
The board's splitting of the CEO and chairman roles in June was an effort, at the urging of shareholders, to improve corporate governance. At WaMu's shareholder meeting in April, a nonbinding resolution calling for the installation of a non-employee as board chairman passed with 51.5 percent of the votes.
But Killinger -- who received compensation valued at $14.4 million in 2007 -- held on to his post as CEO, even as the list of other top banking executives shown the door continued to grow.
After backing Killinger for so long, the board's sentiment finally changed.
"The board and Kerry mutually agreed that this was the right time for Kerry to leave the company," said spokesman Brad Russell in an e-mail to The Associated Press.
Killinger's exit follows that of Wachovia Corp. CEO Ken Thompson, Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Stanley O'Neal and Citigroup Inc.'s Charles Prince.
The 62-year-old Fishman became president and CEO of Brooklyn, N.Y.-based Independence in 2001. He later served as president and chief operating officer of Sovereign Bank after the Philadelphia-based bank bought Independence for $3.6 billion in cash in 2006.
"The board has great confidence in Alan's ability to lead WaMu," said Chairman Stephen E. Frank in a conference call with analysts, "and to return the company to profitability as quickly as possible."
Most recently, Fishman has served as chairman of privately held commercial mortgage brokerage Meridian Capital Group. Fishman said he will step down from this post.
While the management change may be long overdue, few are convinced it will prove a quick fix to the bank's ongoing problems.
"You have a bunch of people who were upset with Kerry Killinger and wanted him out of the company because of the huge mistakes he'd made over the last few years," said Richard Bove, a bank analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. But bringing in Fishman isn't necessarily going to change anything, Bove said.
"A new CEO can bring new energy, new perspective to a struggling company," said Moshe Orenbuch, an analyst at Credit Suisse, in an interview. "But they can't undo a loan that has been written already. What new management should be focusing on is making inroads into disposing its existing problem asset base."
In an interview with the AP, Fishman said his first three priorities are to review the balance sheet, review the income statement and review the brand. He said it is too early to comment on whether the bank will pursue any asset sales.
Some speculate that WaMu is ripe for a buyout, but a sale could prove to be difficult in this environment.
While the bank has an enviable West Coast bank branch footprint that would otherwise make them attractive to a potential buyer, it's hard to value the loan portfolio and that makes buying them very difficult, said Frederick Cannon, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.
Fishman, who would not comment on whether the bank would consider a buyout offer if one came to the table, stressed his belief in the value of the franchise.
"I share the board's confidence in WaMu's underlying strength," Fishman said during the conference call. "I know that we can and will manage the issues we face today."
WaMu's troubles largely stem from rising delinquencies among its "option" adjustable-rate mortgage loans. The bank stopped originating the negative amortizing loans, also called option ARM loans, in June. Option ARM loans offer very low introductory payments and let borrowers defer some interest payments until later years.
WaMu became one of the first retail banks to seek outside cash in the wake of the credit crisis when it agreed to sell equity securities to an investment fund managed by TPG Capital and to other investors this spring, raising $7.2 billion in fresh capital.
In July, the bank reported a $3 billion second-quarter loss -- the biggest quarterly loss in its history -- as it increased its loss reserves to more than $8 billion to cover bad loans.
The company expects cumulative losses in its residential mortgage portfolio to total $19 billion, the high end of previous guidance, and has said 2008 will be the peak year for provisioning.
During the second quarter, WaMu announced plans to exit the wholesale lending business and close all remaining standalone home loan centers, resulting in 3,000 job losses. The bank said it would instead focus its mortgage-originating efforts in its retail bank branches and Web site, and by expanding its call center operations. WaMu announced an additional 1,200 job cuts in June. Earlier this year, the bank slashed its quarterly dividend to 1 cent from 15 cents, which will result in savings of about $490 million a year.
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