Just be wrong and move on…

Sorry, no charts for this one. This is just filler, while I work on the weekend report.

Cheers... Jason

There is a fundamentally sound reason that I chose to stay out of the markets after the March bottom and didn’t enter in until May 5<SUP>th</SUP>. This is the same reason I missed out on a potential 33.9% gain. What might that reason be you ask? It’s simple, I was wrong, wrong, wrong, for much too long.

Sometimes I have to set my ego aside and acknowledge that I am a fallible human being. And let me tell you, once I release myself from that burden I’m able to focus on rebuilding a better position, and start making profits again. Now the big question is why was I wrong and what did I learn from it? <O:p
<O:p

Position Size - Well for one thing, I had a huge position in FAZ which is an ETF that shorts the financial sector. Because I didn’t use position sizing, I needed to be right, or I was going to lose a whole lot of money. Well guess what? I was never going to be right anyways and because I couldn’t acknowledge that fact, I ended up losing twice as much. Freaking 3x bearish ETFs can murder you...

Bloggers – Just so you know, I’ve stolen most of the bloggers I follow from Robo & XL-entLady . At one time I was reading 20-50 a night but I have to tell you that during March a good portion of them were wrong. When we hit 666 a whole crap load of bloggers were short and because of that they needed to justify their positions. Sometimes you have to be careful and know that even brilliant bloggers can write with a Bearish/Bullish slant which can mislead you into keeping foolish positions.<O:p

CNBC – Aka “the screaming channel.” If you want to confuse yourself, then watch Larry Kudlow. He’ll pit the Bulls & Bears against each other but nobody ever wins and if you were confused before you started watching it, you’ll be even more confused afterwards. Nowadays I DVR through Fast Money for the Jeff Macke one-liners, and I study PBS’s Nightly Business Report (the best market/economy show ever.) <O:p

The Charts – The biggest reason I was wrong was that I wasn’t listening to what the charts were telling me. While I was letting position size, bloggers, and CNBC cloud my judgment, the charts were SCREAMING at me to get back in.
<O:p
<O:p
To sum all this up, it’s ok to be wrong, just don’t be wrong for too long. <O:p
 
I can't agree more with your comments on the Bloggers. I've also noticed quite a few went into 'vacation mode' in the wonderous months of March, April or May when the going got tough. Guess what, those same FAZ fans are back fighting last year's war with the BKX index while blaming this whole entire mess on the Plunge Protection Team. It's like, "Hey I missed out, but I'm right the banks should be shorted so obviously somebody is manipulating the market on me!"

I have cut down on my blogs heavily but thanks to Mr. Robo, I keep checking out new links as they are posted.

I've been CNBC free since 1/1/2007 and I don't second guess myself as much or get excited over a stock or news story like I used to.

I still think that it's the instincts that make one successful, that's why it's so tough to be successful in this game. Any person with the internet can look up a chart and stochastics....
 
J, you didn't need charts to make a huge direct hit bullseye with this one! I just returned to the real world from a week without internet. I've been reading my favorite bloggers for the last three hours and each one of them is absolutely sure what we should all do. Except that none of them agree....

I've got to read blogs and news sites less and my stockcharts.com charts more.

And don't even get me started about CNBC, which I once heard someone call "financial porn".
 
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