JPH543 Jeremy's Account Talk

[JPH543]

10-Day Wind Report (16MAR-27MAR):

60% Tailwind. Gains were increased or losses were reduced on the day.
40% Headwind. Losses were increased or gains were reduced on the day.

Total Tailwind adjustments: 2.62%
Total Headwind adjustments: 2.56%

Net Adjustment: 0.06%

Notes: Just barely had an overall positive adjustment this cycle.

 

[JPH543]

30MAR2026:
ACWX: -0.06%
UUP: +0.50%
TSP I Fund: -0.05%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind losses were reduced.
Next day open: Up

Smallest adjustment I've seen .01%.

 

[JPH543]

31MAR2026:
ACWX: +3.29%
UUP: -0.71%
TSP I Fund: +2.28%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Headwind gains were reduced.
Next day open: Up

A trend I am noticing is when there is late day movement in the ACWX, TSP is adjusting to what it was doing around 1 pm eastern.

 

[JPH543]

01APR2026:
ACWX: +1.34%
UUP: -0.18%
TSP I Fund: +2.11%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind gains were increased.
Next day open: Big down

The ACWX peaked around +2% at 1pm yesterday and the TSP adjusted back up to +2.1% last night after closing, kicking off April with favorable winds.

 

[JPH543]

02APR2026:
ACWX: -0.66%
UUP: +0.47%
TSP I Fund: -0.76%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Headwind losses were increased.
Next day open: Up (after holiday weekend)

Strong day for the dollar so the I fund lagged behind the C & S and we got a wind reversal, but it was a minor adjustment. Graph looked flat for most of the day but losses were a bit higher around 12-1 pm so between that and the dollar going up the headwind adjustment makes sense.

 

[JPH543]

10-Day Wind Report (23MAR-03APR):

56% Tailwind. Gains were increased or losses were reduced on the day.
44% Headwind. Losses were increased or gains were reduced on the day.

Total Tailwind adjustments: 1.69%
Total Headwind adjustments: 2.33%

Net Adjustment: 0.64%

Notes: 9 days only in this report since the market is closed today. One more tailwind day this period but the headwinds were still stronger so a larger unfavorable net adjustment for this period.

 

[JPH543]

Now that March is over here are the fair valuation adjustments for the entire month. We had 22 trading days. 12 days had positive tailwind adjustments and 10 days were negative headwind adjustments.

Total Tailwind adjustments: 5.07%

Total Headwind adjustments: 6.55%

Net Adjustment: 1.48%

The headwinds blew a few less days but were overall stronger for the month. The trend was late day gains in the ACWX being dampened back down and then going into after hours or overnight reversals that were never recovered the next day. Let's see what the showers of April have in store.

 

[JPH543]

06APR2026:
ACWX: +0.54%
UUP: -0.11%
TSP I Fund: +0.58%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind gains were increased.
Next day open: Down

 

[JPH543]

07APR2026:
ACWX: +0.04%
UUP: -0.29%
TSP I Fund: +0.09%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind gains were increased.
Next day open: Big Up!

Based on last months trends, when there were ACWX gains late in the day, TSP has been adjusting back down which would have made the day a headwind, but we got a positive valuation adjustment, perhaps the dollar dropping and the positive after market close activity in the Asian markets were enough to keep the tailwind blowing and TSP gave us a tick up with their adjustment instead. This really hasn't happened this path month with all the volatility so is this a Red Sky at night, Sailor's delight situation? Good sign moving forward perhaps...

 

[JPH543]

08APR2026:
ACWX: +4.23%
UUP: -0.79%
TSP I Fund: +4.42%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind gains were increased.
Next day open:

Perfect conditions for the I fund yesterday with the big oil and dollar drop, let's see if we dampen out or get a reversal moving forward today, the evening/overnight not looking too promising.

 

[JPH543]

09APR2026:
ACWX: -0.21%
UUP: -0.18%
TSP I Fund: -0.28%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Headwind losses were increased.

 

[JPH543]

10APR2026:
ACWX: +0.25%
UUP: -0.15%
TSP I Fund: +0.45%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind gains were increased.

Took Friday off to spend time with the family and forgot to post Thursday and Friday's data so here they are to keep track.

 

[JPH543]

13APR2026:
ACWX: +0.68%
UUP: -0.22%
TSP I Fund: +0.66%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Headwind gains were decreased.

Slight adjustment down, makes sense for late day ACWX gains, dollar helped counteract.

 

[JPH543]

14APR2026:
ACWX: +1.15%
UUP: -0.22%
TSP I Fund: +1.06%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Headwind gains were decreased.

Slight adjustment down to the mid-day (1230) peak.