JPH543 Jeremy's Account Talk

[JPH543]

It does offer opportunities in either direction if you think about it for a moment.

It does, just not always what you were thinking/expecting but if you were already moving based on pre noon data your relatively safe regardless of the adjustment barring a wild reversal in either direction in the afternoon causing an unexpected adjustment. I do find it does make it harder to do a quick dip buy day or 2 jump in and jump out in the I fund, compared to C and S.

So far with the net adjustments overall favorable, it seems like a great hold fund for weeks or months though, then take profits on your own terms when you want to redistribute.

 

[JPH543]

10MAR2026:
ACWX: +0.29%
UUP: -0.04%
TSP I Fund: +0.89%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind gains were increased.
Next day open: Down

 

[JPH543]

11MAR2026:
ACWX: -0.10%
UUP: +0.36%
TSP I Fund: -0.09%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind losses were reduced.
Next day open: Down

Smallest adjustment I've seen so far .01%.

 

[JPH543]

12MAR2026:
ACWX: -2.01%
UUP: +0.47%
TSP I Fund: -1.69%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind losses were reduced.
Next day open: Up

 

[JPH543]

13MAR2026:
ACWX: -0.89%
UUP: +0.76%
TSP I Fund: -1.25%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Headwind losses were increased.
Next day open: Big Up (after weekend)

 

[JPH543]

10-Day Wind Report (02MAR-13MAR):

50% Tailwind. Gains were increased or losses were reduced on the day.
50% Headwind. Losses were increased or gains were reduced on the day.

Total Headwind adjustments: 2.98%
Total Tailwind adjustments: 2.35%

Net Adjustment: 0.63%

Notes: No pre-conflict data to help out this date range, in the past 10 trading days we have an overall unfavorable adjustment with 50/50 winds.

 

[JPH543]

16MAR2026:
ACWX: +2.10%
UUP: -0.57%
TSP I Fund: +1.33%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Headwind gains were reduced.
Next day open: Up

 

[JPH543]

17MAR2026:
ACWX: +0.42%
UUP: -0.18%
TSP I Fund: +0.76%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind gains were increased.
Next day open: Down

 

[JPH543]

18MAR2026:
ACWX: -1.90%
UUP: +0.61%
TSP I Fund: -1.25%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind losses were redcued.
Next day open: Big down

 

[MeasureMaster]

18MAR2026:
ACWX: -1.90%
UUP: +0.61%
TSP I Fund: -1.25%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind losses were redcued.
Next day open: Big down

Going out on a limb here, with Europe and Asia down big overnight, I fund will likely underperform by a lot, maybe a whole percent. If folks have the nerve, today might be a good day to enter the I fund. To steal that offset. Just thinking out loud. If I fund doesn’t underperform the AWCX, then we/I either don’t have the cause and effect figured out yet, or it’s being manipulated.

 

[MeasureMaster]

Going out on a limb here, with Europe and Asia down big overnight, I fund will likely underperform by a lot, maybe a whole percent. If folks have the nerve, today might be a good day to enter the I fund. To steal that offset. Just thinking out loud. If I fund doesn’t underperform the AWCX, then we/I either don’t have the cause and effect figured out yet, or it’s being manipulated.

Likewise, it’s also probably a bad day to exit the I fund, unless you feel the market will continue downwards from here.

 

[JPH543]

It's def a roller coaster right now, decisions decisions! Only hindsight Henry knows the best plays lol.

 

[JPH543]

19MAR2026:
ACWX: -0.19%
UUP: -0.97%
TSP I Fund: -0.76%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Headwind losses were increased.
Next day open: Down

ACWX started climbing late in the day with the dollar dropping off around 3pm but since foreign markets were closed looks like TSP adjusted the I fund back down. This is a known pattern we have seen and makes sense. The ACWX bounced around in the -0.6X to -0.8X range from 10am to 3pm and the TSP adjustment went smack into that range. There may be some data here for an estimated guess on a likely adjustment or maybe effective earlier time of day that whatever it is at now is likely what it gets adjusted to at our close. Need to look at it more, if this rough time is around or before noon this could be quite helpful for making a move in or out decision. We already know late day losses or gains get dampened out.

 

[JPH543]

20MAR2026:
ACWX: -3.05%
UUP: +0.36%
TSP I Fund: -2.33%
Fair Valuation Adjustment: Tailwind losses were reduced.
Next day open: (after weekend)

The ACWX was around -2.33 on Friday between noon and 1pm and that is where TSP adjusted back to.

 

[JPH543]

10-Day Wind Report (09MAR-20MAR):

60% Tailwind. Gains were increased or losses were reduced on the day.
40% Headwind. Losses were increased or gains were reduced on the day.

Total Tailwind adjustments: 2.64%
Total Headwind adjustments: 2.80%

Net Adjustment: 0.16%

Notes: We had 1 more favorable wind adjustment day but still ended this 10-day period with a net loss in overall adjustments.