Joy Lynn's Account Talk

Good Luck with the move to I. Not sure how the dollar is going to do for you tho.


How's the studying going?:suspicious:
 
Hey Sugar Plum,
I've been thinkin' about ya lately. Wondering if things are going okay with the house selling and everything.

So I figured I'd have this waiting on ya -- should you ever come back. I hope you realize that you can't just come here and dazzle everyone with your charm and personality -- and then expect us to forget you -- cause it just doesn't work that way.

So if you do come back - That's GREAT!! - and this is proof :)
 
So how's my little honey bumpkin ? ;)

Yes I know you're a grown woman :rolleyes: but trust me --compared to me you are 'little'.

Well I thought about you this morning. :) After I took my shower the mirrow was too steamed up so I took my razor in my room and used that mirrow instead. Well that's rare for me Joy Lynn - because YOU know I always shave in the bathroom. So being in such a different setting made me reflect on YOU --- sweet darling -- and your lovely house and the way you described it. I reflected back on how my house looked when I first bought it. The previous owners who designed and built the house had the walls and ceilings throughout the house the same color -- like a steel gray blue. We have high ceilings too -- some at least 20 feet or more. So you know me Joy Lynn, I'm able to see past all that stuff and focus on the structure itself -- which was extremely well done. The cosmetics are nothing to change. AND -- you know my wife too -- and how she's the one stuck in that place Sooo she loses it -- starts crying -- and I mean really 'distrought and broken hearted' - saying she doesn't think she could ever be happy in this house. In fairness to her -- she'd never had ceilings as high as some of the rooms in our house and was kind of lost on how to make it more 'traditional'. So I told her I've got the money to do whatever needs to be done and we'd hire an interior decorator and she could work with her. (We'd never done anything like that before) - but shoot - in desperate situations you need to do desperate things. Well everything has changed and she absolutely loves the house and everything.

So that brings me to you. I'd bet anything you're got quite a view from your house and the setting is very nice. Push that more in your advertisement, honey, so people will be drawn to the setting and the views -- because YOUR house will sell itself.

OK - I think you have the concept all wrong sweetheart and it's getting on my nerves. 'Absense makes the heart grow founder' -- is ONLY for a short term. So you are starting to kind of ruin things doing this stuff.

Well since you've been gone 'they' started filling the Gulf of Mexico with OIL and that's been ongoing for weeks and weeks. 'They're' wanting to see how long it will take to ruin the East Coast.

Then AZ decided -- hey this illegal immigration really is a problem and we should address it better and implement plans that actually help. So they came up with a 'GREAT PLAN' and the President and Mexico and L.A. and tons of others are going crazy -- acting like it's disgusting to actually believe it's a problem and seriously try to address it.

Now you're up to date on everything. MARKETS is the same ole --same ole -- some are apprehensive and some just ignore it and go with the flow.

Well, with every waking moment I'm longing for you to come back. Hey I know you have a Life outside of this place -- but still that's no excuse. :mad:
 
I tried to answer your email but got this.

joylynn has chosen not to receive private messages or may not be allowed to receive private messages. Therefore you may not send your message to him/her.

Sigi
 
Hi Joylynn,

There are cycles to everything. The main cycle in the stock market to
watch is the 4.4 year cycle. The last up cycle was from 2003 to 2007.
The cycle we are in started in April of 2009 and if you apply the 4.4
year cycle to that start date then it ends around September of 2013. The
down cycle is much shorter and therefore much faster. The last down
cycle was 2 years ending in 2009 so we should see a down slide through
2015. It may be a good idea to move into the F or G fund around
September 2013.

I don’t do fundamentals. It’s almost impossible to tell what is really happening and why. I look at charts and go with fear and greed.
When the market gets to the point where it is gut wrenching I buy and when I think to myself “the market will continue to go up” that’s when I get out.

This year my gut was really churning about the fiscal cliff so I played it safe and started the year with the F Fund.
So I went against the “gut” mainly because I didn’t trust the politicians to do the right thing. I let logic take over so I
missed the big move in the first two weeks of 2013.
I went against the “gut”. The “gut” was saying push through the fear and go 100% S Fund.
I move between the F, S and I funds (sometime C if the big stocks are doing well) and I go 100% when I do.

When I say I ignore the fundamentals that means things like the
Price/Earnings (PE), Shares Outstanding, etc. You can have a company
like Sears that looks great on paper (past history) and all of a sudden
it is falling apart. Now the TSP really invests in Mutual Funds so that
spreads out the risk as in the S & P 500, one stock won’t drag down
the entire index (or index fund). And the financial press doesn’t know what
moves the market. One day they say that falling gas prices at the pump
are helping to ease economic pressure on Middle America and the market
went up. Then they will say rising crude prices lifted the market. And
of course, OPEC is going force crude prices even higher and the market
falls.

What I do pay attention to is the general tone of the
press and the market. That is where “gut wrenching” come in. When the
press is spouting doom and gloom that is when to buy. In the case of
real catastrophes, markets will react and often fall and can continue to
fall for months. And when the press is elated about new highs be ready
to sell.

I started studying stock charts in the mid 80’s. That is when I subscribed to a monthly service that sent out a
book (magazine) with printed NYSE stock charts. When PC graphics got to
the point where you could interact with JAVA charts, life became easy
and complicated. Of all the chart types that are out there, I like
candlesticks the best. And StockCharts.com - Simply the Web's Best Financial Charts
is one of the best charts on the Internet. I did subscribe to their
premium services but found that I could get most of what I needed from
the basic site. This chart will help with TSP –
PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts and this one

CandleGlance - StockCharts.com - Free Charts

BigCharts: Stock Charts, Screeners, Interactive Charting and Research Tools is very good.

Here is a very good charting site.
FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free
You have to download the Silverlight plugin to make it work. You also have to set up a userid and password
but that is all. No additional personal information is needed. The
freestockcharts.com site lets you set up (kind of program) simple
searches (like - find all stocks that moved above the 50 day moving
average today) and it stores them for you which is why you need to set
up the userid. The charts are free but the scans are limited.
On the help tab there is a tutorial video.

I’m a little more conservative with real money. My real TSP
account is at 18.5 % for the last 12 months (as of 12/6/2012). I tend
to move in too early and out to late which is a human trait I think. I test on the fantasy account and
then apply what works to the real account. I retire in 2 years.

I also go to TSP Talk Market Commentary daily and see what Tom Crowley has to say and check out the monthly historical chart at the bottom.

And finally this page will let you track the TSP funds during the day.
Wilshire4500CompletionIndex: INDEXNASDAQ:W4500 quotes & news - Google Finance

Good Luck,
Sigi
 
What the...
I agree. I saw Sigi's first post here, and wondered what was going on, then scrolled down and found this whole thread a little...odd.
I’m a little more conservative with real money. My real TSP
account is at 18.5 % for the last 12 months (as of 12/6/2012). I tend
to move in too early and out to late which is a human trait I think. I test on the fantasy account and
then apply what works to the real account. I retire in 2 years.

Really? You came in 3rd place or something, right? For some reason, I find that disappointing. I like to think most people put their money where their mouth (or AT allocation) is. My moves always reflect what's really in my account, but I guess maybe a lot of folks throw it around like high rollers on this site, only to have their real accounts in the G or L funds. Oh well, it's your money - I should only be concerned with my own.
 
Now gents let's give sigi a chance - he or she may have some valuable comments to offer. I need all the help I can get.
 
Hey Sugar Plum,
I've been thinkin' about ya lately. Wondering if things are going okay with the house selling and everything.
...
Well, with every waking moment I'm longing for you to come back. Hey I know you have a Life outside of this place -- but still that's no excuse.
mad.gif

............

LOL!!! what the hell... This thread is freaking hillarious!

man I wish I joined this site earlier. it seems like the people on board now are a little more normal, and that's not as entertaining
 
Hey sniper,

Steady used to frequent the board a while ago. He definitely was an interesting character, but he had a change in attitude towards this being an investment site... He had an interesting thread. And unfortunately took some heat for it. He was a great guy and has been missed since he decided to leave.
 
he seems like a nice guy but kinda in a creepy way. dude prolly woulda been a good DM for dungeons and dragons with his storytelling ability though haha.
 
Sniper.

Steadygain found a love interest on this site - heck you might too. Konacathy seems a little wanton and she is close by your designated area. Another point is that Steady was Special Forces.
 
This is better than Facebook!! Any other former "interesting" particpants you elders could reminisce about?
 
thanks for the tip but i'm already taken haha. i'm glad that he's found happiness here, it seems like he came here to bond with people. I'm looking for happiness in another form, millions of dollars before i hit retirement age. to each his own :)
 
Wait a minute Sniper! Not to be taken in that context! Simply inquiring about any other former particpants with possibly unique personalities. Believe me, I love my little lady.
 
Sigi, Thanks for all the information. So sorry it took so long to reply to you. There was a glich in my account after I updated an email address though support at tsptalk was able to fix me up. I am copying the information you gave me and also saving the links. I appreciate the time you took to respond and the sharing of your knowledge. Joy
 
Hi Joylynn,

There are cycles to everything. The main cycle in the stock market to
watch is the 4.4 year cycle. The last up cycle was from 2003 to 2007.
The cycle we are in started in April of 2009 and if you apply the 4.4
year cycle to that start date then it ends around September of 2013. The
down cycle is much shorter and therefore much faster. The last down
cycle was 2 years ending in 2009 so we should see a down slide through
2015. It may be a good idea to move into the F or G fund around
September 2013.

I don’t do fundamentals. It’s almost impossible to tell what is really happening and why. I look at charts and go with fear and greed.
When the market gets to the point where it is gut wrenching I buy and when I think to myself “the market will continue to go up” that’s when I get out.

This year my gut was really churning about the fiscal cliff so I played it safe and started the year with the F Fund.
So I went against the “gut” mainly because I didn’t trust the politicians to do the right thing. I let logic take over so I
missed the big move in the first two weeks of 2013.
I went against the “gut”. The “gut” was saying push through the fear and go 100% S Fund.
I move between the F, S and I funds (sometime C if the big stocks are doing well) and I go 100% when I do.

When I say I ignore the fundamentals that means things like the
Price/Earnings (PE), Shares Outstanding, etc. You can have a company
like Sears that looks great on paper (past history) and all of a sudden
it is falling apart. Now the TSP really invests in Mutual Funds so that
spreads out the risk as in the S & P 500, one stock won’t drag down
the entire index (or index fund). And the financial press doesn’t know what
moves the market. One day they say that falling gas prices at the pump
are helping to ease economic pressure on Middle America and the market
went up. Then they will say rising crude prices lifted the market. And
of course, OPEC is going force crude prices even higher and the market
falls.

What I do pay attention to is the general tone of the
press and the market. That is where “gut wrenching” come in. When the
press is spouting doom and gloom that is when to buy. In the case of
real catastrophes, markets will react and often fall and can continue to
fall for months. And when the press is elated about new highs be ready
to sell.

I started studying stock charts in the mid 80’s. That is when I subscribed to a monthly service that sent out a
book (magazine) with printed NYSE stock charts. When PC graphics got to
the point where you could interact with JAVA charts, life became easy
and complicated. Of all the chart types that are out there, I like
candlesticks the best. And StockCharts.com - Simply the Web's Best Financial Charts
is one of the best charts on the Internet. I did subscribe to their
premium services but found that I could get most of what I needed from
the basic site. This chart will help with TSP –
PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts and this one

CandleGlance - StockCharts.com - Free Charts

BigCharts: Stock Charts, Screeners, Interactive Charting and Research Tools is very good.

Here is a very good charting site.
FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free
You have to download the Silverlight plugin to make it work. You also have to set up a userid and password
but that is all. No additional personal information is needed. The
freestockcharts.com site lets you set up (kind of program) simple
searches (like - find all stocks that moved above the 50 day moving
average today) and it stores them for you which is why you need to set
up the userid. The charts are free but the scans are limited.
On the help tab there is a tutorial video.

I’m a little more conservative with real money. My real TSP
account is at 18.5 % for the last 12 months (as of 12/6/2012). I tend
to move in too early and out to late which is a human trait I think. I test on the fantasy account and
then apply what works to the real account. I retire in 2 years.

I also go to TSP Talk Market Commentary daily and see what Tom Crowley has to say and check out the monthly historical chart at the bottom.

And finally this page will let you track the TSP funds during the day.
Wilshire4500CompletionIndex: INDEXNASDAQ:W4500 quotes & news - Google Finance

Good Luck,
Sigi

Sigi,

I was plowing through the forum as a relatively new member, and I came across your post. I found it so informative and interesting on how you "play" the market. The "gut" - good stuff. I seem to see the value of contrarian indicators, and I noticed that you went into the F fund to start this year. I've liked the F fund for what I considered relatively safe and modest gains over the years, but 2013 pushed me out and into the other funds a bit more.

If you are still following the forum posts, I was wondering what your thoughts were to jump into the F fund after what seems to be a rising interest rate period. I wanted to go into the F fund a couple weeks ago, but chickened out. I felt it was so beat up and every analyst was touting staying away from bonds that my "gut" told me that's just too much of a contrarian indicator to go in. Unfortunately, I didn't follow the gut. Bad move this time. Still in G, so I'll continue to be patient. I feel like I would be chasing it now that it's had a nice run.

Anyway, thanks again for the great post, and while others have done well, I must congratulate you on your awesome tracker success! You have been remarkably consistent through good and bad times over the years. Wish I had your "gut".....:)
 
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