JonFresno's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
J

jonfresno

Member
Went in 50S 50I today. I hate IFTing on the close of an up day (S fund looking up at least), but hey, the pain of the noon deadline. Taking a bit of a risk on the I fund with the Ukraine problem, hoping for a bump like the one about a week ago. It's just tough to find a good entry point.

While I enjoy the site and the technical analysis, I tend to focus more on fundamentals - and I've been getting killed the past few years. I listen to an investment show called "The Wise Investor", a show on WMAL in DC. They have their show archives on the web, and it's more of a value-oriented approach to investing. They focus on great companies that get beaten up, buy them cheap and typically hold them. Not really the best for bouncing in and out of index funds, but I remember a few years ago when the S&P was around 1200, they felt the value of the fund, based on earnings, was around 850. I waited for a correction that never happened.

If I can do the emotional lobotomy thing, I would love to follow one of the the alternate LMBF strategies that Cactus keeps up to date so generously with his time and effort. But until the lobotomy is covered under me FEHB plan....:D
 
jonfresno said:
Went in 50S 50I today. I hate IFTing on the close of an up day (S fund looking up at least), but hey, the pain of the noon deadline. Taking a bit of a risk on the I fund with the Ukraine problem, hoping for a bump like the one about a week ago. It's just tough to find a good entry point.

While I enjoy the site and the technical analysis, I tend to focus more on fundamentals - and I've been getting killed the past few years. I listen to an investment show called "The Wise Investor", a show on WMAL in DC. They have their show archives on the web, and it's more of a value-oriented approach to investing. They focus on great companies that get beaten up, buy them cheap and typically hold them. Not really the best for bouncing in and out of index funds, but I remember a few years ago when the S&P was around 1200, they felt the value of the fund, based on earnings, was around 850. I waited for a correction that never happened.

If I can do the emotional lobotomy thing, I would love to follow one of the the alternate LMBF strategies that Cactus keeps up to date so generously with his time and effort. But until the lobotomy is covered under me FEHB plan....:D
Click to expand...

Welcome to your own thread! BTW, I have noticed that ones getting promoted helps with the whole lobotomy thing...
 
IMHO, I feel the majority of the info here is thru technical analysis with a heavy emphasis on trading. Not much discussion on fundamentals. I've mentioned it before, but now I can bloviate about it on my own thread without hijacking another:D

I began listening to a radio show probably about 15 years ago called The Wise Investor. It's on WMAL Sunday morning, and you can get rebroadcasts thru their website along with a Wednsday mid-week update. No bombastics or stupid bells and whistles. The Wise Investor Show

These folks stress value investing and I feel anyone interested in a more long term investing approach (Birchtree, etc.) based on buying good companies on the cheap and holding them will really enjoy this show. Off the top of my head, I can list a number of the companies they have discussed (and bought) over the years - Berkshire, JNJ, Walmart, McDonalds, AT&T, Microsoft, Intel, Merck, Teva, Pepsi, Pfizer, etc. Every few months they go over their top 5 or 10 holdings so you know what they buy for their clients. If they talk about a stock they disclose if the own it personally or if they are buying it for clients.

They discuss topics such as how to read a ValueLine, how P/Es differ among business sectors, decipher various economic data and each week they discuss the market as a whole. A big topic always discussed is Warren Buffet's address to shareholders with Warren's thoughts on Berkshire, the markets and the health of the economy. But the real value of this show is their analysis of individual stocks and why they choose them. Back in the dotcom bubble they stated how great Microsoft was, but not at that crazy valuation. They kept their eye on it and snatched it up when it was cheap. I wouldn't be surprised if they are paring down their holdings of Microsoft after talking about buying it when it was around $24 a share, and reallocating that money into other companies.

They also stress that if you get a pretty good company like Microsoft or Walmart on the cheap, you get a nice dividend while you wait for the stock to approach full valuation.

The current company they are looking at is Time Warner. The latest shows discuss why they feel it's a good buy, and at what price level they are comfortable buying it for their clients.

Other topics include retirement planning, estate planning and changes in the tax code that may affect investors.

Anyway, I thought I'd pass it along. I try to catch both shows from the web site each week and it really is a great resource to learn a bit more about value investing.
 
Pretty interesting show this past Sunday from The Wise Investor. A broad discussion on the traits and behaviors of successful investors. They discussed one story about how Warren Buffet was unhappy about one of the companies he bought stock in. The company got bought out and he gained 20% on the buyout. He was upset because he felt over the long haul he would have earned a whole lot more than 20% based on the future earnings growth. Good info about the mindset of chosing companies to buy and how the succesful investors tend to decide what to buy.

Midweek podcast discusses interest rates, the broad market and that they're keeping an eye on Apple. They feel it's at a decent price, good dividend and that it will do well by the end of the year.


The Wise Investor Show
 
I'd like to post this in my account talk because I feel the show did a pretty good job of staying away from the politics of the war. The Wise Investor Show did an analysis of how the current situation in Iraq might affect the equity and oil markets along with a history of our involvement in the Middle East. Now my political views tend towards the paleo-conservative side, and when the little asterisk thingie is in play I enjoy pummeling neocons like the next guy, but I think you might find this historical recap pretty informative whether you were an anti-Iraq war liberal or conservative, or a pro-Iraq war liberal or conservative.

http://thewiseinvestorgroup.com/Wis...s/The-Midweek-Update/MidWeekUpdate_061814.mp3
 
your last trade seems to be working out well for you. maybe missed the buyin by a day but picking up the slop for a net gain pretty good now.
 
burrocrat said:
your last trade seems to be working out well for you. maybe missed the buyin by a day but picking up the slop for a net gain pretty good now.
Click to expand...

Thanks burro!

We'll see what today brings. I felt a little better about the decision to go in after seeing felixthecat going in too. Now I'm not sure how he felt after seeing me going in..... I thought about bolting yesterday, just as felix did, but I didn't pull the trigger. Maybe today.

And thanks for digging up my account talk.

Say, on another issue, does anyone make tsp decisions around here based on PE/fundamentals vs. technical? I dug up some info and unless I'm wrong, it looks like C and S funds have a higher P/E than the I fund. C and S are around 20, while I is around 15. Would that be considered a "value" to anyone?

Say, has anyone around here complained about the noon cutoff and the monthly IFT limit??:D
 
Lost my nerve, got out, hoping I don't lose much. who knew 4 hours was such a long time? That lilly pad seems pretty far in the distance....
 
jonfresno said:
Lost my nerve, got out, hoping I don't lose much. who knew 4 hours was such a long time? That lilly pad seems pretty far in the distance....
Click to expand...

Looks like you may a good move since there are enough positive sector participation to conclude a positive outcome today for S Fund...C Fund probably Flat but not so sure about Dow as commodities and transportation still putting pressure on the big boys. I really don't like this setup leading into Friday...what if the two sectors mentioned continue their freefall? That might put a lot of pressure on the market Friday. I pulled out because I just did not have faith in this rebound. Sit on the lilipad with the big boys now until we get some clarification.

Wait and see approach looks good here. :smile:
 
felixthecat said:
Looks like you may a good move since there are enough positive sector participation to conclude a positive outcome today for S Fund...C Fund probably Flat but not so sure about Dow as commodities and transportation still putting pressure on the big boys. I really don't like this setup leading into Friday...what if the two sectors mentioned continue their freefall? That might put a lot of pressure on the market Friday. I pulled out because I just did not have faith in this rebound. Sit on the lilipad with the big boys now until we get some clarification.

Wait and see approach looks good here. :smile:
Click to expand...

Thanks, really good analysis. And at what point will China have an effect? I mean, if the S & P dropped over 2% and it didn't look that bad in comparison to the previous days, I'd be freaking out...:1244:
 
jonfresno said:
I lucked out. Was holding my breath heading into the close, but S fund managed not to tank. I'll take it and be happy after getting spanked last year.

Still lookin' up at the ark....
Click to expand...

a one day later entry would've been the trade of the month. i wish i had followed you in on monday and out yesterday. we'll get 'em next time.
 
Well, Monday I hemmed and hawed, and submitted an IFT at the last second. Saw where it didn't go thru, but I didn't cancel it thinking I'll check Tuesday morning to see if I want to cancel or let it go thru for Tuesday's close. Of course I would remember I did this, I mean who would be dumb enough to forget about a TSP IFT?

Me, that's who.....

So, I'm 100% S fund today hoping dumb luck prevails. Not sure if Tom would accept a "snip" of the confirmation/account allocation from the TSP site, but I'll put it in the auto tracker this morning.

Surely the S fund is due for something good, isn't it??
 
1) Missed market run-up in October - check.
2) Make emotional decision - check.
3) Chasing the market - check
4) Buy high, potentially sell low - check.

IFT 100 S fund.
 
jonfresno said:
1) Missed market run-up in October - check.
2) Make emotional decision - check.
3) Chasing the market - check
4) Buy high, potentially sell low - check.

IFT 100 S fund.
Click to expand...
This was an exact mirror image of my TSP account. You're getting a post like for that! And my condolences... :(
 
Times like this, Birchtree would advise to keep that pair of sticky pants on. Sometimes it's tough to do when they get so soiled.

Got in 11/1, and I'm not (yet) willing to eat the loss on this trade. Even after the paltry interest rate hike, where can investors go for a decent return? Hoping December can eek out a minor gain, or at least a smaller loss than where we're at now. Time's on my side, I hope. C'mon positive reversal day, er, month.....
 
jonfresno said:
Times like this, Birchtree would advise to keep that pair of sticky pants on. Sometimes it's tough to do when they get so soiled.

Got in 11/1, and I'm not (yet) willing to eat the loss on this trade. Even after the paltry interest rate hike, where can investors go for a decent return? Hoping December can eek out a minor gain, or at least a smaller loss than where we're at now. Time's on my side, I hope. C'mon positive reversal day, er, month.....
Click to expand...

I feel your pain JFO. I got in on 11/4, so I am in the same boat. Don't want to lock in that loss. Eventually the bottom will be declared and we start heading back up. The question is how long will it take just to break even???
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
152
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Something big was brewing, all right
Replies
1
Views
216
robo
robo
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks bounce back as bitcoin revisits $100K
Replies
0
Views
93
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: The Week of the FOMC Sell-Off
Replies
0
Views
237
TommyIV
TommyIV
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The seasonal mid-December struggles continue, but...
Replies
0
Views
113
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top