04/05/13
Yesterday was day #12 of the alternating up / down days in the S&P 500 (On Thursday I mistakenly said Wednesday was #10 -- it was #11.) The Dow gained 56-points on the day as it and the S&P 500, continue to hold up better than some of the other indices.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.60%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The Dow and the S&P 500 continue to hold above the support of the 20-day EMA, which is a plus for the bulls, but...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
... some of the leaders are clinging to their 50-day EMA's, which is little more important. The small caps of the Russell 2000 closed back above the 50-day EMA after falling below it intraday for a 2nd straight day. It's too early to say, but the steep drop looks like it could be the start of a bear flag. A big positive day would take that away so reaction to today's (Friday) jobs report may be a good tell for what this market wants to do: Rebound like it did in February, or rollover after a weak attempt at a bounce.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation index also made a feeble attempt at a rebound on Thursday gaining just 0.1% after 3 sharp declines. The 50-day EMA held again but we'll want to see some buying with decent volume to assure ourselves that the big money is willing to buy this pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Semiconductor Index - one of the leaders of the Nasdaq, rallied nicely yesterday, but since is already trading below its 50-day EMA, we'll have to see if it now acts as resistance on any continued rebound.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
After a strong start in March, 10-year treasury note yields have falling steadily ever since and has made a lower low, which helped the F-fund put together a nice rally, and it is leading all of the TSP funds so far in April. Remember, bond prices and the F-fund move counter to yields.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
You know how I reluctantly call us the dumb money and say that very few groups on Wall Street are actually considered part of the smart money? Well, this stat from sentimenTrader.com, which measures Market Professionals, shows that even they tend to be wrong when their sentiment hits an extreme. Unfortunately for the bulls, they are hitting an extremely bullish reading right now, and looking at this chart, it looks like that is not a good thing for stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The jobs report should be released Friday morning around 8:30 AM ET. Estimates are still in the +185,000 to +195,000 range with an unemployment rate near 7.7%.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Yesterday was day #12 of the alternating up / down days in the S&P 500 (On Thursday I mistakenly said Wednesday was #10 -- it was #11.) The Dow gained 56-points on the day as it and the S&P 500, continue to hold up better than some of the other indices.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.60%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The Dow and the S&P 500 continue to hold above the support of the 20-day EMA, which is a plus for the bulls, but...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
... some of the leaders are clinging to their 50-day EMA's, which is little more important. The small caps of the Russell 2000 closed back above the 50-day EMA after falling below it intraday for a 2nd straight day. It's too early to say, but the steep drop looks like it could be the start of a bear flag. A big positive day would take that away so reaction to today's (Friday) jobs report may be a good tell for what this market wants to do: Rebound like it did in February, or rollover after a weak attempt at a bounce.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation index also made a feeble attempt at a rebound on Thursday gaining just 0.1% after 3 sharp declines. The 50-day EMA held again but we'll want to see some buying with decent volume to assure ourselves that the big money is willing to buy this pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Semiconductor Index - one of the leaders of the Nasdaq, rallied nicely yesterday, but since is already trading below its 50-day EMA, we'll have to see if it now acts as resistance on any continued rebound.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
After a strong start in March, 10-year treasury note yields have falling steadily ever since and has made a lower low, which helped the F-fund put together a nice rally, and it is leading all of the TSP funds so far in April. Remember, bond prices and the F-fund move counter to yields.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
You know how I reluctantly call us the dumb money and say that very few groups on Wall Street are actually considered part of the smart money? Well, this stat from sentimenTrader.com, which measures Market Professionals, shows that even they tend to be wrong when their sentiment hits an extreme. Unfortunately for the bulls, they are hitting an extremely bullish reading right now, and looking at this chart, it looks like that is not a good thing for stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The jobs report should be released Friday morning around 8:30 AM ET. Estimates are still in the +185,000 to +195,000 range with an unemployment rate near 7.7%.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
