Stocks opened higher on Friday after the jobs report, which came in slightly higher than estimates, but the unemployment rate was slightly higher than expected. The Dow lost all of the early gains but a late push higher had it close with a 31-point gain. The other indices were mixed and bonds were hit hard.
[TABLE="width: 79%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The SPY (S&P 500) posted another outside day on Friday and this one closed right in the middle of the bar, so it is not really considered a negative or positive outside day. I marked the prior positive outside reversal day below, and that one turned out to be bullish going forward as we'd expect, but Friday's flat close on the SPY, after the strong open probably has a little more of a negative bias, if anything.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps are struggling against resistance, both from the short-term, intermediate-term, and as I showed last week on a weekly chart, from the long-term too. The open gap on both this chart, and the S&P above, are prime targets for any pullback, but once filled, there is support in that area.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The technology heavy Nasdaq 100 Index nearly filled its open gap on Friday after falling sharply intraday, but the rising support line held.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The problem with many of these charts are the rising wedge patterns, which generally break to the downside.
The market leading Transportation Index finally made new highs on Friday, and managed to close above the old highs. This is a positive sign but I like to give breakouts at least three days to confirm themselves, so it's too early to celebrate here.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Possibly surprised by the fairly strong jobs report, the bond market saw yields rise sharply and prices fall on Friday. Both of these charts fell below their 50 and 200-day EMAs which, if it holds, is obviously not a good sign for bonds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yields rose and made a new multi-week high, and also blasted through the 50-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The first couple weeks of March are generally stronger than the final two, with some very positive days historically coming around the 7th through 12 trading days of the month, and today is the 6th trading day in March.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts and indicators, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
