Jobs report Friday and other issues

06/06/25

We had some trade negotiation troubles and some inner White House conflict that made Thursday just an odd day for the stock market. We saw some decent early gains evaporate and turn into losses by the close, and the charts, that had been looking rock solid, may be having some issues, but today's jobs report may change everything.

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As I mentioned yesterday, I am taking a mini vacation so I am not in my office, and I am not a laptop kind of guy and everything in creating this report has been a struggle from connections to my normal programs working.

I did get the AutoTracker updated and that was job one. And this really short commentary is going to have to be good enough. Sadly, it may also be like this on Monday.

Fortunately, I don't have too much to write about. The market has been in good shape and today's jobs report could make or break the current bullish momentum.

On the surface this S&P 500 (C-fund) chart looks fine, but technically it could have been a negative outside reversal day, which is not a good look going forward, but it wasn't very obvious and today's jobs report could confirm or refute that formation. The index can't seem to get and stay above that lower red resistance line, but it could be in limbo waiting for the jobs report and the outcome of the trade deal negotiations with China.

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OK, that's all I can stand with this laptop and connection. I still like the set up for the dip buyers, but it could change if the jobs report or the China deal fall flat.

I won't be back in my office until Tuesday morning. I may take a little more time than usual to respond to emails so I apologize in advance for any inconveniences.
Again, my apologies for the brief commentary.


Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


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Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%

Economy adds 139,000 jobs

bls.gov


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION --

MAY 2025

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment
survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent in May and has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024. The number of unemployed people, at 7.2 million,
changed little over the month. (See table A-1.)

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Note: S&P500 is up 0.44% in pre market trading.
 
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