Jobs Report Contest - Oct 2017

[tsptalk]

I had abandoned the jobs report contest a while back because participation was falling, but also the jobs report was not the market mover it once had been, hence to lack of participation, I think. Let's see if we can get any interest...


On Friday, November 3 we get the October jobs report. Make your predictions on the number of jobs gained / lost in the month (and the unemployment rate)...

You can't pick a number already taken and each guess must be rounded to 1000's. (ex: +201,000, -14,000, +195,000, +176,000, -5,000, etc. - no 100's)

There's a travel mug up for grabs for the closest pick.

If the winner also guesses the unemployment number correctly, they can upgrade to the stainless mug if they'd like (so predict both)!

We'll take predictions until 8:15 AM ET Friday morning, Nov 3.

Thanks, and good luck!

Briefing.com's consensus estimates are looking for a gain of 300,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of and 4.3%.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

+360K
4.2%

Go Dodgers!

 

[nnuut]

+365K
4.3%

 

[FireWeatherMet]

+130K

4.2%

 

[Frixxxx]

+300K
4.3%

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

275,000 and 4.2%

 

[emily]

+220,000 & 4.2%

 

[tsptalk]

6 entries? Looks like this will be the last jobs contest. :Flush:

 

[amoeba]

+290K 4.4%

Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

 

[FireWeatherMet]

6 entries? Looks like this will be the last jobs contest. :Flush:

Seems that in the past several years, many were more motivated in undercutting the jobs report...and so far this year, those same folks have been disappointed by the actual jobs reports undercutting them (lol).

This years net jobs are lower than the past 4 years....including last month being the worst in nearly 8 years (storm in Houston notwithstanding). Seems to have zapped enthusiasm here.

 

[tsptalk]

Actual: +261,000, 4.1%

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...-added-oct-rebound-hurricane-zones/827666001/

Winner ... DreamboatAnnie

275,000 and 4.2%

Nice job!

Please PM or email me your shipping info!


Thank you for playing, everyone!

 

[James48843]

Sorry- I would have guessed if I had seen this sooner.

Now- here is a question for you-

That number is a little better than I was thinking- particularly because of the multiple hurricanes.

Why is the market reacting with "Meh", to a healthy jobs report like that?

As of this writing, the S&P 500 is down .06% this morning. What gives?

 

[tsptalk]

Why is the market reacting with "Meh", to a healthy jobs report like that?

As of this writing, the S&P 500 is down .06% this morning. What gives?

The number missed the 300K estimate.

 

[evilanne]

Congrats DreamboatAnnie!

What's frustrating with the Jobs Report is that it is always off as indicated by all the prior revisions...last month's was off by 51K (-33K vs +18K)

 

[tsptalk]

I agree. The revisions over the years have been so dramatic at times that it makes you wonder why they don't wait a while before releasing the report. Of course that would open the door to more insider trading possibilities, but I'm not sure what good it does to pass out data that may be completely off.