Job Report (over or under)

[Wizard]

I take the under - miss by a half and the fed is going to stop sucker rally (again). . How many times can you fool people?

Funny Tom talked about the cup in his commentary yesterday.

I sold my CUP today @3.12. I bought it @$1.40 per share in October.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=CUP

I think the commodities have topped. Recession time.

 

[Wizard]

Bump

Anyone want to guess on the over/under?

Step up, step right up.

The "experts" say 275K.

I say around half.

 

[Wheels]

I hope it's over. If it's over I think stocks will come down hard tomorrow. If we could peel another 2 or 3 percent off the C and S then I think we'd be set up for a decent run in stocks. A report over 300K, coupled with today's wage data and Amazon's miss would be a double whammy.....inflation and higher valuations.

Having said all that, I think the number will come in a little lower.

Dave
<><

 

[dell]

Which report?

Which report are you referring to?

Thanks

 

[vectorman]

Which report are you referring to?

Thanks

The employment situation from the nonfarm payrolls report which comes out tomorrow at 8:30am est.

http://mam.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/employment_situation/year/2006/yearly/02/index.html

 

[Birchtree]

Blowout number

Jobs report for non-farm payrolls will be north of 350,000 jobs - scare the pants off everybody but the Bulls. This bull market is reacting to a Goldilocks scenario and has longevity to it. I think tomorrow we have an even greater dramatic move in the major market averages confirmed with excellent volume. The Fed has paused - market internals are still strong and this bull run has a long ways to go. Glad to see weak hands heading for the G fund.

The trend of the market is 60% of your decision making process, 30% sector, 10% stock.

Dennis - permabull #2

 

[Wizard]

What are you saying?

You say in one post the fed will pause then this post the job number will be north of 350K. Huh?

Then you say you are going to reallocate money from small caps to large caps because the fed will pause. Huh?

I am confounded by your economic train of thought.

 

[Wizard]

I give ya a hint. If the job number comes in north of 350K the DOW will be down north of 150.

 

[clester]

If we have over 350k the dollar will bounce upward and hurt the I fund.
If we're under 250k the dollar will probably weaken and help the I fund.
I'm not sure hoe the Internqational stocks will react, but they usually follow the US. So, if we're below 250k we could have a big day in the "I".
Got my fingers crossed.

 

[mlk_man]

Wiz, any chance you could share your stock purchases with us when you first buy them and not when you sell them? As far back as I can remember you've never had a losing transaction. That's the kind of person I'd like to follow.

For what it's worth, I say the jobs report comes in just a tad lower.

 

[mlk_man]

Tad lower................

 

[NASAguy]

Almost 20% lower. Dollar will gain, interest here may go on up to 5% if we don't slow down. I Fund may not be the place to be today.

 

[Wizard]

Job report was a "perfect number".

 

[Wheels]

There was a lot in this report that the market doesn't know how to handle. The number was lower but it was still strong. Plus Decemebr was revised up. Unemployment was low and wage growth was a little high (wage growth being the single biggest concern when it comes to inflation). Will the Fed raise more? Will they stop? The futures are all over the road. The currency markets seem to have made up their mind though as the dollar is rallying.

Dave
<><

 

[Wizard]

The CNBC spinners are all ready doing the "perfect number" spill just like they did like on the last job report.

"Couldn't have printed a better number" - is the mantra today.

Step right up, step right up.

 

[Mike]

I don't see the job number as being low enough to move the market. Disappointing but not shocking (4th qtr GDP was shocking).

I think the real story here is wage inflation, since the market has been fixated on the rate hikes for months now... I believe we see two more rate hikes unless there's a severe economic downturn in the short-term (doesn't appear to be happening yet).

 

[NASAguy]

I agree. And 5.0% is a nice round number.

We'll see how the market likes that.

 

[Wizard]

Have you been reading the earnings reports?

Common theme: Lowering forward guidance.

 

[NASAguy]

Yep, they are nearly all reporting the same. Plus I know I am paying more for fuel, building materials, insurance and such and my 2.1% increase this year ain't close to reality. I'm not alone and I think the entire country is beginning to actually think before they spend.

Read "slowdown".

 

[Dave M]

Insurance -- when my windstorm insurance gets to 80% of my house payment I am selling and renting. Last year it was 40%, this year it will be 60%. Next year?

It's a race against the clock for Dave. Will he go broke before he retires wealthy?

Dave