05/30/25
It was a wild 24 hours beginning after the close on Wednesday until the close on Thursday. We got Nvidia's earnings report, a court ruling to block Trump's tariffs, and later on Thursday the Court of Appeals reinstated the tariffs while the court considers the appeal. Stocks jumped, dumped, then settled with some modest gains, probably disappointing both the bulls and the bears. Yields were down giving the F-fund a nice gains.
Nvidia's earnings opened the door to a good day for stocks, especially the tech stocks, and the gains in the futures were growing after the courts rule against Trump's tariffs. Thursday's open was a little disappointing when the S&P 500 opened at half of the overnight highs.
The bulls will take the gains from Thursday, but the action was suspect. Here is the rundown.
After Thursday's stock market close, the S&P 500 futures were at about 5920.
The previous close was 5,903, so it was a modest 17-point 24-hour gain (open and closing times are different in the futures market than the stock market.)
After Nvidia's earnings and the Trump tariff block ruling by the courts, the S&P futures hit a high of 6,008 overnight on Wednesday.
So, while we don't see it in the S&P 500 chart, the S&P 500 futures chart shows a huge negative reversal after closing 88-points off that overnight high.
Meanwhile the S&P 500 (C-fund) looks OK after that fiasco, and the sideways consolidation going back about 10-days is still churning. I still think the ultimate outcome will be test of the old highs just above 6100, but investor sentiment has gotten much more bullish, and nearing extremes.
The economic data was mixed yesterday with the 1st Quarter GDP coming in better than expected at minus 0.2% while estimates were looking for a slightly larger loss of 0.3%. Meanwhile the April Pending Home Sales were down 6.3% after a 5.5% gain in March.
The 10-year Treasury Yield fell on the data and created a negative outside reversal day suggesting it may be going lower in the short-term. We get some very key data today that could shake this up -- the PCE inflation data, Personal Spending and Income, the Chicago PMI, and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for May.
The dollar (UUP) was also down and this has been chopping back and forth for the last week or so.
One more trading day in May and barring any major meltdown on Friday, the C and S-funds are looking for their first positive month since January. Meanwhile the I-fund has been up every month this year. The F-fund is on track to have its first losing month of the year.
The DWCPF (S-fund) opened at its highs of the day on Thursday and spent the rest of the day chopping back and forth, and closing somewhere in between the highs and lows of the day. It could have filled the open gap above or the one below, but it did neither. It looks like a bull flag, and should that play out as bulls flags tend to, we'd expect this to eventually break to the upside, but in the short-term it could still come down and test the bottom of the flag or fill that open gap before attempting to bust through the top of the flag.
ACWX (I-fund) was up but with the dollar down 0.54% yesterday, I would have expected more from this fund. It's very stretched to the upside but there hasn't been much pressure on this whether the dollar has been up or down recently. It's impressive that this chart has held up as well at it has considering the confusion over tariffs.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up while yields fell. The better than expected GDP numbers wouldn't have caused this to rally, so it may have been the weak pending homes sales report. Or it could be that both the 10-year Treasury Yield and this BND fund are chopping around inside wide ranges at the moment with the short-term action on the random side?
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
It was a wild 24 hours beginning after the close on Wednesday until the close on Thursday. We got Nvidia's earnings report, a court ruling to block Trump's tariffs, and later on Thursday the Court of Appeals reinstated the tariffs while the court considers the appeal. Stocks jumped, dumped, then settled with some modest gains, probably disappointing both the bulls and the bears. Yields were down giving the F-fund a nice gains.
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Nvidia's earnings opened the door to a good day for stocks, especially the tech stocks, and the gains in the futures were growing after the courts rule against Trump's tariffs. Thursday's open was a little disappointing when the S&P 500 opened at half of the overnight highs.
The bulls will take the gains from Thursday, but the action was suspect. Here is the rundown.
After Thursday's stock market close, the S&P 500 futures were at about 5920.
The previous close was 5,903, so it was a modest 17-point 24-hour gain (open and closing times are different in the futures market than the stock market.)
After Nvidia's earnings and the Trump tariff block ruling by the courts, the S&P futures hit a high of 6,008 overnight on Wednesday.
So, while we don't see it in the S&P 500 chart, the S&P 500 futures chart shows a huge negative reversal after closing 88-points off that overnight high.
Meanwhile the S&P 500 (C-fund) looks OK after that fiasco, and the sideways consolidation going back about 10-days is still churning. I still think the ultimate outcome will be test of the old highs just above 6100, but investor sentiment has gotten much more bullish, and nearing extremes.
The economic data was mixed yesterday with the 1st Quarter GDP coming in better than expected at minus 0.2% while estimates were looking for a slightly larger loss of 0.3%. Meanwhile the April Pending Home Sales were down 6.3% after a 5.5% gain in March.
The 10-year Treasury Yield fell on the data and created a negative outside reversal day suggesting it may be going lower in the short-term. We get some very key data today that could shake this up -- the PCE inflation data, Personal Spending and Income, the Chicago PMI, and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for May.
The dollar (UUP) was also down and this has been chopping back and forth for the last week or so.
One more trading day in May and barring any major meltdown on Friday, the C and S-funds are looking for their first positive month since January. Meanwhile the I-fund has been up every month this year. The F-fund is on track to have its first losing month of the year.
The DWCPF (S-fund) opened at its highs of the day on Thursday and spent the rest of the day chopping back and forth, and closing somewhere in between the highs and lows of the day. It could have filled the open gap above or the one below, but it did neither. It looks like a bull flag, and should that play out as bulls flags tend to, we'd expect this to eventually break to the upside, but in the short-term it could still come down and test the bottom of the flag or fill that open gap before attempting to bust through the top of the flag.
ACWX (I-fund) was up but with the dollar down 0.54% yesterday, I would have expected more from this fund. It's very stretched to the upside but there hasn't been much pressure on this whether the dollar has been up or down recently. It's impressive that this chart has held up as well at it has considering the confusion over tariffs.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up while yields fell. The better than expected GDP numbers wouldn't have caused this to rally, so it may have been the weak pending homes sales report. Or it could be that both the 10-year Treasury Yield and this BND fund are chopping around inside wide ranges at the moment with the short-term action on the random side?
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
