05/13/13
Stocks rallied sharply into the close on Friday, closing out another good week for the market. The Dow gained 36-points while the TSP funds were mixed including a noticeable decline in the F-fund (bonds).
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 160"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.73%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 continues to flirt with overhead resistance as the rising support converges with that resistance. This looks like a possible rising wedge and that could be a concern since they tend to break to the down side.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The rising long and short-term trends are intact but obviously extended to the upside. The index is now nearly 150-points above the 200-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Small caps had another big day on Friday with the Russell 2000 continuing its sharp rebound off the May 1st sell-off low. The open gap that was created after the jobs report is still a possible target once we see a pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Commodities have rallied off of their April lows, but the 50-day EMA has produced some tough resistance since it broke below it in February. The reason this is significant is that commodity prices, which are influenced by the action of U.S. dollar, are a good indication of economic conditions so if they stay in a downtrend, I would take it as a warning sign for stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds were hit hard on Friday and the 7-10 year bond ETF is looking to find some support at the prior early March high. There is a big gap open up near the recent highs that may need to get filled - eventually, but if that support does not hold, bonds could have a little down trend on their hands.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
That usually wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for stocks, but the nonstop purchase of assets by the U.S. Federal Reserve and its 0% interest rate policy is having the effect of pushing investors into riskier assets to get a "normal" yield / total return, and some say this action by the Fed is distorting market prices and fixed income yields. If bond prices do fall, and yields move do up, perhaps there will be an alternative to stocks. Right now they (stocks) are basically the only game in town.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied sharply into the close on Friday, closing out another good week for the market. The Dow gained 36-points while the TSP funds were mixed including a noticeable decline in the F-fund (bonds).
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 160"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0035%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.73%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 continues to flirt with overhead resistance as the rising support converges with that resistance. This looks like a possible rising wedge and that could be a concern since they tend to break to the down side.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The rising long and short-term trends are intact but obviously extended to the upside. The index is now nearly 150-points above the 200-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Small caps had another big day on Friday with the Russell 2000 continuing its sharp rebound off the May 1st sell-off low. The open gap that was created after the jobs report is still a possible target once we see a pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Commodities have rallied off of their April lows, but the 50-day EMA has produced some tough resistance since it broke below it in February. The reason this is significant is that commodity prices, which are influenced by the action of U.S. dollar, are a good indication of economic conditions so if they stay in a downtrend, I would take it as a warning sign for stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds were hit hard on Friday and the 7-10 year bond ETF is looking to find some support at the prior early March high. There is a big gap open up near the recent highs that may need to get filled - eventually, but if that support does not hold, bonds could have a little down trend on their hands.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
That usually wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for stocks, but the nonstop purchase of assets by the U.S. Federal Reserve and its 0% interest rate policy is having the effect of pushing investors into riskier assets to get a "normal" yield / total return, and some say this action by the Fed is distorting market prices and fixed income yields. If bond prices do fall, and yields move do up, perhaps there will be an alternative to stocks. Right now they (stocks) are basically the only game in town.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
