Is Team Trump Shorting Then Buying The Market?

[FireWeatherMet]

Don't want to get political here, so just asking others to refrain from professing your love or hate of Trump.
But the crazy tweets and speeches, often near recent highs...are undeniably a pattern...and this pattern might be worth noting for our IFT's.

Its got other people in the market world talking for over 2 years now.

Donald Trump's big short: Is the president profiting off the market chaos he creates?
https://www.salon.com/2019/10/22/do...nt-profiting-off-the-market-chaos-he-creates/


Cramer: It feels like Trump is shorting the stock market
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/03/23/cramer-it-feels-like-trump-is-shorting-the-stock-market.html


“THERE IS DEFINITE HANKY-PANKY GOING ON”: THE FANTASTICALLY PROFITABLE MYSTERY OF THE TRUMP CHAOS TRADES
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/10/the-mystery-of-the-trump-chaos-trades

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I knew I shoulda expected this, as we are near new highs off the recent April low and shoulda got out...to locked in a 5% month.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-may-28-2020-221546588.html

"Stocks were mixed Thursday amid new developments that could raise tensions between the U.S. and China, and a deluge of new economic data, much of which was still consistent with a contraction but at least signaled some stabilization after an initial slump in activity."
"President Donald Trump is set to hold a press conference Friday on China, just days after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Hong Kong no longer could be considered autonomous from China."

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hummm… I am surprised you are allowed to post such Totally Unfounded BullShit ...you post articles by Salon, CNBC, and Vanity Fair....all Left leaning and unfounded. So you think that President Trump is Profiting from his Tweets, actions or that he is tipping others off so they profit? Where's the proof? Are any of the sick innuendos founded in truth? Probably about as true as the BullShit that the fake Left "news" media have been tossing around for years stating Trump was in cahoots with RUSSIA! Accusing him of Treason even! All fabricated. Please stop posting political BS. Sorry you lost money...but we all know the market, on day-to-day basis has knee jerk reactions to daily occurrences. But to indicate that our President is profiteering is just Wrong! He has done more for our country then tge last 3 Presidents combined!! He loves this country and the average American! He is fighting the Congressional embedded criminals truly screwing us and profiteering, he is fighting the China-loving Media and corporations bought off by China, including Universities... I could go on and on..could there be leaks . ..Lol.... lol....really.... you think there could be leaks?


If you had been listening to the Real News like Fox Business News, you would have known since Monday that the President would be addressing China later this week since the White House did announce this intention. Also, the drop in market today didn't have anything to do with tweets, it had to do with fact that China has passed first legislation on the Security Act that moves towards taking away Hong Kong's autonomy, which was Promised via Treaty until ~2048, and President Trump already indicated we/USA have an issue with that....among so many other things.


https://www.foxnews.com/world/pompeo-condemns-chinas-law-as-death-knell-for-hong-kong-warns-economic-hardship

https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-hong-kong-national-security-bill-protests-liberties


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-displeased-with-chinas-proposed-hong-kong-crackdown-mcenany-says

https://news.yahoo.com/china-approves-hong-kong-draft-081622829.html

 

[rangerray]

Vanity Fair? :laugh:

 

[ravensfan]

:bs2:Come on FWM, give it a break. I hear there was a guy on a political forum who was banned for talking about his investment strategy.

 

[pmaloney]

I don't know but even though everyone was talking China tomorrow, I was pretty sure the plunge started when Trump signed the Executive Order concerning Social Media.:smile:
Tomorrow's problems may be more relevant then.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hummm… Hi Pmaloney...please read these two articles or at least the headlines. Tensions with China affected our markets today. The executive order on social media has no teeth...no immediate legal impact... later, if Congress takes action to change the law on social media, then that could affect market but IMHO not now... these articles attribute market drop to increasing China tensions and President Trump's announcement on China tomorrow, which he mentioned was coming earlier this week. I heard about it on Monday or Tuesday and I believe Whipsaw posted about it on his thread. Best wishes to you. :smile:

.https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-fell-trump-may-be-winding-up-to-hit-china-51590700431?mod=mw_quote_news

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-index-futures-edge-higher-after-dow-retakes-25000-2020-05-28?mod=mw_quote_news

I don't know but even though everyone was talking China tomorrow, I was pretty sure the plunge started when Trump signed the Executive Order concerning Social Media.:smile:
Tomorrow's problems may be more relevant then.

 

[tsptalk]

It feels like it when you're on the opposite side of the trade , but you can probably say that about any market mover (Fed, Buffett, Obama, Kudlow, etc.).

But we've been talking about China tensions escalating for a week. Nothing overly new today.

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/5083-tsp-talk-market-commentary-5-22-2020-a.html

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/5087-tsp-talk-market-commentary-5-26-2020-a.html

 

[FireWeatherMet]

It feels like it when you're on the opposite side of the trade , but you can probably say that about any market mover (Fed, Buffett, Obama, Kudlow, etc.).

But we've been talking about China tensions escalating for a week. Nothing overly new today.

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/5083-tsp-talk-market-commentary-5-22-2020-a.html

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/5087-tsp-talk-market-commentary-5-26-2020-a.html

True Tom,

But Trump, for the past 2 years, has been doing this "shock announcement near recent highs"....then after a short 1-5 day plunge, reversing his rhetoric, namely with China, over and over again. And if you look back, he never does it when the market is at short term lows, he does it exclusively (maybe there were 1 or 2 exceptions) when the markets were at or near recent highs. Same today, after yesterdays "We're upset with China and I'm going to announce something tomorrow" then tomorrow comes and he says basically maybe they'll do something, they'll have to study it further...which is why I didn't get out of the S, anticipating some sort of "massaging of yesterdays message".

Anyway, I plan on occasionally testing this hypothesis in the coming weeks, when we shoot up to near term highs, look a bit overextended on the charts, and wait if there is a brain-numbing tweet about ratcheting up new economic sanctions, threatening to fire the Fed Chairman, or something on an equal level.

Mind you I would do the same if it were Clinton or Obama...nothing partisan here...just my job namely pattern recognition, and hoping to be able to profit from it if it were true.
LOL, I wonder if the Feds would come after me for "Insider Trading", for using this technique, if it works too well.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Salon, CNBC, and Vanity Fair....all Left leaning and unfounded.

Actually CNBC is as middle of the road as it gets. It has as one of its most prominent reporters, far right wingers like Rick Santelli, the self proclaimed "Founder of the Tea Party Movement", as well as Larry Kudlow for many years, before he joined Trumps team. The other articles were sourcing other financial experts.

If you had been listening to the Real News like Fox Business News, you would have known...

Answer is NOTHING.
We had a thread many years ago titled something Like "Fox Business News Sucks".
Had nothing to do with politics, other than it being simply a propaganda extension of regular Fox Evening News Anti-Obama or Pro Trump Rhetoric...often minimizing the economy and market gains thru 2016, then minimizing market losses and overstating economic growth since then.

Anyway, on that thread "FBN Sucks" it was noted that they rarely if ever do any serious chart work, while CNBC and Bloomberg were much more sophisticated sources of information, with many daily charting examples on a daily basis. I remember that Tom actually agreed with me on that point. :smile:

CNBC or Bloomberg call it like they see it, either pro or anti Obama or Trump, depending on how it affects the markets. I actually gave FBN a chance for about a week, back when the S&P was up from its 660 March lows and hoovering near 1000, when FBN and that economic ignoramis with the British accent kept saying "Now the other shoe is about to fall"...all while the S&P steadily recaptured new highs of 1550...then proceeded into the low 2000's by 2016. So spare me that FBN BS please.

Instead of charting or having top fund managers answer tough questions FBN gave us whole segments on baseless and debunked "Birther BS".

 

[nasa1974]

Folks let's not start putting on asbestos suits and bringing out flamethrowers. We all have our own theories and opinions, but we must civil.

 

[Boghie]

FMW,

All you had to do to make serious bank over the past three years was camp the C (or C and S) funds.
Camping the C Fund since 2017/02/01 would have net you +42% - or about +14% per year.

Don't worry about what the Trumpster or the goobers at Solon have to say. Don't try to time some yak by some yakker. Neither the Trumpster nor the Professional Yakkers are market movers. On the other hand, regulation is down, but the sensible regulation is being enforced. Taxes are down, but sensible taxes are improving revenue. Fuel costs are down, but the producers seem to be doing ok. Inflation is in check, but real estate is doing ok. And, the economy is moving money around - excepting this Andromeda Strain - which is/was a trading opportunity.

The signals are telling you when to jump in and when to jump out. However - and, keep this very quiet - the Illuminati is investing in equities as a general trend. Don't tell anybody. Make money, retire happy.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Stock futures tumble, recover after Navarro clarifies US-China trade comments


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-futures-tumble-after-navarro-china-trade-remarks

Stock futures sank Monday evening before recovering after top White House trade advisor Peter Navarro clarified comments he made to Fox News on the U.S. China trade deal potentially being kaput.
Earlier during an interview with Fox News host Martha MacCallum, Navarro said, "It's over...They came here on January 15th to sign that trade deal, and that was a full two months after they knew the virus was out and about" he noted.
Dow futures fell over 400 points around 9:40 PM ET before cutting the bulk of those losses...after top White House trade advisor Peter Navarro clarified comments he made to Fox News on the U.S. China trade deal potentially being kaput. President Trump also tweeted his own clarification