Is it a correction?

[FAB1]

I cant find my talk thread anymore - well im lazy, ok?

Anyhow, I think this downturn is just a uptrend in the Dollar. Going to do the smart thing for the first time since joining here (since I missed best spot to sell) and ride this baybee down so I dont miss the buy-back rally.

I dont think this downward movement is going to last long and dollar will relent soon.

 

[nnuut]

It's on page 10 of the thread! If you put it in alphabetical order by clicking the thread link on the top left of the page.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=246702&postcount=1

 

[Steadygain]

I dont think this downward movement is going to last long and dollar will relent soon.

You may be right.

IMO - The heightened threat against the USA would cause the Markets to plumet if a significant attack occurs.

Overall I think almost everything we've been seeing for the past few months is more an attempt at 'stabilization' as opposed to a BULL Market.

The question is this a correction ?

I would say NO -- it is simply continued volitility and it going down a few hundred points is part of that - but I consider 'a correction' something substantially different.

I think we may be heading toward a 'correction' down the line - but Global Dynamics would not want that at this point.

 

[amoeba]

I would say MAYBE - but PROBABLY NOT:

I disagree with Steadygain on this one; the volatility is actually trending down, and the volume during this sell (at least today) has been HIGH - at the moment, SPY has traded ~135 million already (barely past noon).

I see a slower unwinding; down to ~1,050-1,060 on the SPY. That's not 10% so not a correction. Countertrend selling perhaps?

Nothing is different economically; it looks like selling in the face of no news - or perhaps overseas headlines; the only thing a bit concerning is the reality check talk on the unemployment situation which - if it does not improve much more than it has, will have two major domestic results:

1. increasing unemployment (150,000 jobs/month doesn't do it)

2. increasing debt (loss of tax/FICA revenue, in face of static and increasing payouts- such as unemployment benefits/extensions).

This (10% unemployment) can't go on forever; and not even for another 2-3 years, without much more serious consequences.

The bad news is that I am almost always wrong on my predictions.

 

[Birchtree]

State and Government revenues are actually increasing - so things are slowly getting better. Let the late bond owners puke their way back into equities and the free cash will flow. I welcome my smash in the nose today - it sets us up for a better run into the yearly close. Get off the tracks if you fear trains because the Grand Trunk is coming.

 

[prometheus]

Can you believe the last couple hours of action in the $? Punched through 79 like it wasn't even there, & made it half way to 80, a level we haven't seen since late September. With all the overheating in the $ going on over the last week, this latest spike makes it clear as day that some George Soros type, or sovereign entity, is driving the greenback up a steep cliff, while likely building a massive short position. All my systems are pointing to a $ peak this week. Only remaining question is if we'll see the collapse & lurking POMO-fueled rally begin tomorrow, or later on Thursday.

I cant find my talk thread anymore - well im lazy, ok?

Anyhow, I think this downturn is just a uptrend in the Dollar. Going to do the smart thing for the first time since joining here (since I missed best spot to sell) and ride this baybee down so I dont miss the buy-back rally.

I dont think this downward movement is going to last long and dollar will relent soon.

 

[James48843]

We've reached levels of TWO WEEKS AGO people, nothing more .

Sheesh.

No, the sky isn't falling. Far from it. I predict a lot longer way down before we resume the bounce.

The economy is fine. It just isn't jumping higher six months straight.

 

[Steadygain]

I would say MAYBE - but PROBABLY NOT:

I disagree with Steadygain on this one

Mmmmm ... we are saying the exact same thing.

the volatility is actually trending down

George Soros

Just a reminder

-- Updated TSP MB Manual - Section IX - Article 12.b

If the name George Soros appears in any MB - Post all Members are to get on your knees and bow 3 times in worship.

 

[Birchtree]

The most important fact remains that the Obama Regime's reign of terror on wealth and economic growth has ended. A stronger dollar means a stronger economy and equity market. Let interest rates rise - that's also beneficial longer term. The market historically will rally when interest rates strengthen - because profits will rise.

 

[Silverbird]

Is a stronger dollar justified when our economy can't afford to absorb everyone else's exports -which is what they want us to do? Back to borrow and spend? I don't think we can do that anymore - it's unsustainable borrowing and can't be done with our employment rate where it is.

I agree about the interest rates, however, no QEIII, monetary policy is pretty much neutralized. Best for us to let the other countries knock themselves out trying to strengthen our currency and spend their money doing it. It's too bad that oil is priced in dollars, but that's because the OPEC guys can't agree on any other currency or mix of currencies to price it with - they get to ride our bus, whining all the while - but that's what they get.

 

[fcharles81]

I cant find my talk thread anymore - well im lazy, ok?

Anyhow, I think this downturn is just a uptrend in the Dollar. Going to do the smart thing for the first time since joining here (since I missed best spot to sell) and ride this baybee down so I dont miss the buy-back rally.

I dont think this downward movement is going to last long and dollar will relent soon.

Why does the rising dollar lower stocks? Sorry im a newbie.

 

[FAB1]

Did I say "correction"?

that is a strong word, isnt it. Ah well Ive been
away from the MB awhile. :cheesy:

 

[Birchtree]

A correction is usually a sell off equal to or better than 10% from the peak - otherwise it can be interpreted as a consolidation.

Overe the last many months the dollar has been negatively correlated with stocks - that apparently is getting ready to change. Eventually they will correlate positively and a stronger dollar will be bullish for the equity markets. Better days are ahead. Holding strong and long.

 

[amoeba]

State and Government revenues are actually increasing - so things are slowly getting better. .

Huh? State's and Fed's are in deficit spending. No net Fed revenue since Clinton; Gray Davis for California. Better than 2008, but that's not saying much....and what you do say (slowly).....is too slow.

 

[Steadygain]

The most important fact remains that the Obama Regime's reign of terror on wealth and economic growth has ended.

Ding Dong the Witch is dead

.....................................................wwhich ole Witch ???

.................................The Wicked Witch

Ding Dong the Wicked Witch is Dead !!


Ding Dong the Witch is Dead

......................................................Rub those eyes

................................Get out of bed

Ding Dong the Wicked Witch is Dead !!

 

[tsptalk]

Why does the rising dollar lower stocks? Sorry im a newbie.

A rising dollar means you need fewer dollars to buy goods/services in dollars.

Example:
Say gold is worth $1300/oz today, and the 'value' of gold stays the same but the value of the dollar rises 1% tomorrow. That means tomorrow it might take 1% fewer dollars to buy the same ounce of gold.

 

[James48843]

A rising dollar means you need fewer dollars to buy goods/services in dollars.

Example:
Say gold is worth $1300/oz today, and the 'value' of gold stays the same but the value of the dollar rises 1% tomorrow. That means tomorrow it might take 1% fewer dollars to buy the same ounce of gold.

But.....wait.....Umm......

Glenn told me to BUY GOLD NOW??!?!?!?!?!?!?!!

​

 

[amoeba]

steady:

we agree on the non-correction; I disagree with you on the point that volatility increase has much to do with the recent decline. You can get declines with relatively small increases in volatility. That's what has happened so far this wk.

 

[burrocrat]

But.....wait.....Umm......

Glenn told me to BUY GOLD NOW??!?!?!?!?!?!?!!

oh geeez, you listen to glenn?

you didn't actually buy gold did you?

everybody knows you got to wait for cramer to confirm the signal first.

 

[tsptalk]

But.....wait.....Umm......
Glenn told me to BUY GOLD NOW??!?!?!?!?!?!?!!

Buy the dips until this breaks...