09/06/13
Update 9:30 AM ET: The August Jobs report comes in at +169,000 jobs vs. 177,000 estimate. Unemployment rate drops to 7.3% vs. 7.4% estimate. June and July were revised lower by 74,000 revision. The labor force participation rate fell to 63.2%, the lowest level since the summer of 1978, which was why the unemployment rate fell to 7.3%
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Stocks spiked up early yesterday, quickly fell back down, then investors hibernated the rest of the day. With the jobs report coming out Friday morning, investors did very little on Thursday afternoon as volume was light and stocks were flat to slightly higher. The Dow gained 7-points on the day, while bonds dropped as the 10-year yield nearly hit 3%.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 310"]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 159"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0063%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 (SPY) has been up for 5 of the last 6 days but it hasn't been easy as resistance is all around and volume has been drying up in front of Friday's important jobs report, the situation in Syria, and the Fed lurking. After filling the first open gap yesterday, the next mission will be to fill the one up by 168.50 - if it can get there.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transports had another nice day as it moved above the 20 and 50-day EMAs without much trouble, after having closed below them for 6 straight days. The old support line will be the next level to crack, and if it can do that, the open gap near 115.50 would likely get filled.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Some decent economic data helped the dollar move higher again yesterday, filling an open gap on the UUP from back in mid-July. There's still an open gap down near 22.05 that may need to get filled, and a surprise in the jobs report could have the ability to do that.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The strength in the dollar also pushed yields higher as the 10-year hit 2.98% yesterday, a level not seen since 2011.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The higher yield pushed the mid-range 7-10 year bond fund to new lows, which is what is happening to the F-fund as it was down another 0.47% yesterday. The F-fund may be due for a little bounce, but the trend in yields is definitely up, so bonds are a risk.
The estimates for the August jobs report, which comes out at 8:30 AM ET this morning (Friday) are looking for a gain of about 175,000 to 180,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 7.4%, which is what it was in July. Any big surprises will bring fireworks.
In today's TSP Talk Plus report we'll go over a few more charts, plus the Sentiment Survey results, and compare them to the AAII survey results. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
NFL Last Man Standing Football Pool is starting this weekend. Deadline to sign up is 10 AM ET on Sunday September 8. More.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Update 9:30 AM ET: The August Jobs report comes in at +169,000 jobs vs. 177,000 estimate. Unemployment rate drops to 7.3% vs. 7.4% estimate. June and July were revised lower by 74,000 revision. The labor force participation rate fell to 63.2%, the lowest level since the summer of 1978, which was why the unemployment rate fell to 7.3%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stocks spiked up early yesterday, quickly fell back down, then investors hibernated the rest of the day. With the jobs report coming out Friday morning, investors did very little on Thursday afternoon as volume was light and stocks were flat to slightly higher. The Dow gained 7-points on the day, while bonds dropped as the 10-year yield nearly hit 3%.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 310"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 159"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0063%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.47%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 (SPY) has been up for 5 of the last 6 days but it hasn't been easy as resistance is all around and volume has been drying up in front of Friday's important jobs report, the situation in Syria, and the Fed lurking. After filling the first open gap yesterday, the next mission will be to fill the one up by 168.50 - if it can get there.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Transports had another nice day as it moved above the 20 and 50-day EMAs without much trouble, after having closed below them for 6 straight days. The old support line will be the next level to crack, and if it can do that, the open gap near 115.50 would likely get filled.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Some decent economic data helped the dollar move higher again yesterday, filling an open gap on the UUP from back in mid-July. There's still an open gap down near 22.05 that may need to get filled, and a surprise in the jobs report could have the ability to do that.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The strength in the dollar also pushed yields higher as the 10-year hit 2.98% yesterday, a level not seen since 2011.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The higher yield pushed the mid-range 7-10 year bond fund to new lows, which is what is happening to the F-fund as it was down another 0.47% yesterday. The F-fund may be due for a little bounce, but the trend in yields is definitely up, so bonds are a risk.
The estimates for the August jobs report, which comes out at 8:30 AM ET this morning (Friday) are looking for a gain of about 175,000 to 180,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 7.4%, which is what it was in July. Any big surprises will bring fireworks.
In today's TSP Talk Plus report we'll go over a few more charts, plus the Sentiment Survey results, and compare them to the AAII survey results. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
NFL Last Man Standing Football Pool is starting this weekend. Deadline to sign up is 10 AM ET on Sunday September 8. More.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
