Interfund Transfer 12/14 for 12/15/04

[tsptalk]

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OK, we are getting close to the end of the weak December period. This one wasn't so weak. I hope it isn't a trap. I'm making anothertransfer before Tuesday's Noon ET deadline. Effective Wednesday 12/15 I will be 30% C, 70% S fund.

 

[Spaf]

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Tom. Why so tilted towards the S fund?? Proportionally MTD C is pretty strong!! Pls talk a little about risks of I??

 

[tsptalk]

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A few reasons. I am about to write tomorrow's comments and I'll address it there. Also, as far as I goes, I touched on it in Monday's comments. Basically why battle the uncertainty of the current dollar situation when the C and S should do just fine?ie. If the dollar rallies here, the I fund doesn't get the total bang for the buck.

 

[Spaf]

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tsptalk wrote:

ie. If the dollar rallies here, the I fund doesn't get the total bang for the buck.

Got it! Tks :^ Spaf

 

[JerBer]

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It would've been nice if the market had been down slightly today in advance of the 100% allocation to stocks for tomorrow! Hopefully the bull will hold it's course!

 

[Mike]

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It is rather strange that the weak period hit the I fund and nothing else really.

 

[tsptalk]

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It's the rally in the dollar mainly. EAFE is up 1.1% in December in local currencies, and only .41% in dollars.

 

[Mike]

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http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

That's the dollar v euro chart for the year.

I don't believe there was much substance behind that dollar rally - and as far and fast as the dollar has fallen over the past three months, a minor rally in the other direction is darn near inevitable. I expect flat-to-down over the next two weeks. Of course, I'll be watching the C and S performance as well, and if I see one really catch fire, I'll reallocate accordingly. :^

 

[cowboy]

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Mike do you think the I fund will go higher then the 15.09 it went to before. I was going to get out of I at that time then my interfund move did not catch and I just sat it out now it is back up. I should of moved out but just decided to set and watch. I'm 100% I fund. I may move out today but the C&S funds have moved up nicely and my system is saying to stay I.

 

[Mike]

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Cowboy, what price did you buy in at? If you have healthy gains, you may want to sell... if you are at all worried about the dollar's movement (especially with a threat of government intervention to prop up the dollar).

As long as market forces prevail though, the dollar will continue sliding. Euro is up over 0.8% thus far against the dollar today. :shock:

I'm standing pat for a few more days, anyway. If / when it pushes past $15 again, I'll seriously consider selling some.

 

[cowboy]

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At the current price on the ticker it is at 15.05 right at this time I purchased the I fund at 15.01 and would of sold it at 15.09 except the interfund didn't catch so I rode it out, my system is telling me to set and the I fund will go up some more depending on what the market is going to do today.

 

[Mike]

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If you have a system, follow the system (that's what they're for, right?). :^

 

[cowboy]

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I know my system is not that good so I am going to bail on the I fund with the rise. I'm not sold on the idea that the market can stay as strong as it has. I am going 100% G today. If C & S back off some today and possibly tomorrow I will jump back into it. C&S have risen .26 and .38 in the last week a good gain since Thursday of last week and may take a rest.

 

[tsptalk]

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Mike wrote:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

That's the dollar v euro chart for the year.

I don't believe there was much substance behind that dollar rally - and as far and fast as the dollar has fallen over the past three months, a minor rally in the other direction is darn near inevitable. I expect flat-to-down over the next two weeks. Of course, I'll be watching the C and S performance as well, and if I see one really catch fire, I'll reallocate accordingly. :^

I have wondered what currencies have themost influence. I assume it's the pound first, then the yenand euro, because England and Japan aretops in the EAFE index, with other Europeancountries next.

 

[cowboy]

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When I looked at the exchange charts the Yen is down and the British pound and Euro is up verses the dollar. I believe it is how they are weighted into the fund but the Yen seems to have a strong influence. Any help on how others track the dollar would be appreciated.

 

[Mike]

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It almost takes $2 to buy a pound... so I'm not detecting much weakness in that currency either. :shock:

The yen is complicated because if it's too strong against the dollar, the Nikkei drops (offsetting it). So, an ideal scenario is the euro and pound being strong and the yen being flat or even a bit weaker. The european markets don't seem to be as adversely impacted by a strengthened euro.

 

[tsptalk]

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I heard a little news clip today with Bush saying he is supports a strong dollar policy (or something like that). I don't know when he said it but if it was earliertoday, it didn't get much respect, with the dollar falling again.

 

[Mike]

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Of course he'll say that. It's called benign neglect.

 

[Show-me]

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Mike wrote:

Of course he'll say that. It's called benign neglect.

You been listening to MoneyTalk.:^

 

[Wheels]

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Actually he's been saying it for weeks along with Snow and the rest of the gang. They have to. They can't very well come out and say "We support the dollar going down the toilet". Their actions tell a different story though.

Dave