Interfund Transfer 10/14 for 10/17/05

[tsptalk]

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A decline in the Consumer Confidence Report is pulling the market back after a nice opening rally. That is good. A bad confidence report tends to lead to higher prices (another contrarian indicator). I'm ready to go full force into stocks and am making an interfund transfer this morning going 40% C, 30% S and 30% I fund. This will be effective 10/17 getting theclosing prices of 10/14.

Please only get aggressive here if you can be nimble and get out again fairly quickly. Maybe as early as next week. Today's Market Comments are at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html

Tom

 

[The_Technician]

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WOOOO WEEEE! U brave Tom.....

:^

 

[Mike]

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I did something similar without reading your comments.



:shock:

 

[tsptalk]

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Mike wrote:

I did something similar without reading your comments.

Set it and forget it, huh?

Good luck

 

[Mike]

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Yep. I'm leaving it alone for a long time.

I still have to watch the market due to my home-purchasing / Roth IRA situation, but other than that, I don't care much.

 

[tsptalk]

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How 'bout that I fund? EFA up .81% and the I fund loses .18%, and the dollar was down!Yesterday'sloss was a bit lighterthan the EFA loss so I can see some minor adjustments, but my guess is tomorrow the I fund willhave to pay a bit more than the EFA return to even things out.

 

[cowboy]

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Hi Tom! I knew yesterday the I fund was down and the MSCI comes out showing the fund down by 1.15%at the end. Now today they open EFA at 1.04% down this is actually yesterdays loss! These guys are regulating thisfund as stated as they do not want anyone timing the thing. It seems to me they are taking the EFA and adjusting against what actually happened when they realign it. It seems to bemost noticeable on days when the swing is big. The persons or person doing the adjusting has habits and this maybe the key to figuring thisfund out.By doing so they have made the EFA a worthless indicator and only a factor of the whole. So vertually it is a guessing game as to when the person or persons make the adjustment to the funds. It really torksme when they do this cause it costs you the difference. This is why Icost averaged into this fund and still they caught me.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

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Hi folks, looks like some good stuff here..better than the market today:*

check symbol BTAEX for what appears to be a better tracking 'instrument' for the I fund. anybody else use that?

 

[tsptalk]

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Cowboy -
Looks as if they are succeeding in making it tough for usto trade.

Welcome Futurestrader!
I will keep an eye on BTAEX. Today will be a good test. EFA is down 2.3% and BTAEX is down just .08%. Let's see what the I fund does. The dollar was very weak today so I'm leaning toward, a hoping to see, something less than 2%.

Tom

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

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tsptalk wrote:

Cowboy -
Looks as if they are succeeding in making it tough for usto trade.

Welcome Futurestrader!
I will keep an eye on BTAEX. Today will be a good test. EFA is down 2.3% and BTAEX is down just .08%. Let's see what the I fund does. The dollar wasweak vs. the pound today, so I'm leaning toward, a hoping to see, something less than 2%.

Tom

Thanks Tom,

that was yesterday's close..BTAEX is a mutual fund...mutual funds update about 8 pm est. looks like EFA intraday performance correlates (relative to I fund) up to about 1 p.m. est. so i'm hoping, too it didn't get hit in the afternoon sell off, along with the dollar being down...*fingers crossed

 

[tsptalk]

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tsptalk wrote:

How 'bout that I fund? EFA up .81% and the I fund loses .18%, and the dollar was down!Yesterday'sloss was a bit lighterthan the EFA loss so I can see some minor adjustments, but my guess is tomorrow the I fund willhave to pay a bit more than the EFA return to even things out.

That turned out tobe the case. I fund was "only" down 1.17% when the EFA was down 2.3%. Do we readjust tomorrow or are we even now? :?

 

[cowboy]

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tsptalk wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

How 'bout that I fund? EFA up .81% and the I fund loses .18%, and the dollar was down!Yesterday'sloss was a bit lighterthan the EFA loss so I can see some minor adjustments, but my guess is tomorrow the I fund willhave to pay a bit more than the EFA return to even things out.

That turned out tobe the case. I fund was "only" down 1.17% when the EFA was down 2.3%. Do we readjust tomorrow or are we even now? :?

They are even now but they put me down in the cellar holding back on me yesterday. I had the market pegged down to 16.02, they adjusted it today and gave me the shaft. I expect the MSCI to show correctly tomorrow.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

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cowboy wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

How 'bout that I fund? EFA up .81% and the I fund loses .18%, and the dollar was down!Yesterday'sloss was a bit lighterthan the EFA loss so I can see some minor adjustments, but my guess is tomorrow the I fund willhave to pay a bit more than the EFA return to even things out.

That turned out tobe the case. I fund was "only" down 1.17% when the EFA was down 2.3%. Do we readjust tomorrow or are we even now? :?

They are even now but they put me down in the cellar holding back on me yesterday. I had the market pegged down to 16.02, they adjusted it today and gave me the shaft. I expect the MSCI to show correctly tomorrow.

BTAEX down .97% today...us dollar futures down, 100% S at the open tommorow...100% G for monday open based on tonite's closes:^

 

[tsptalk]

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FUTURESTRADER wrote:

BTAEX down .97% today...us dollar futures down, 100% S at the open tommorow...100% G for monday open based on tonite's closes:^

That was closer to the I fund result. I will keep watching. But as you said, it is a pretty late quote so it's not too helpful during the day.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

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tsptalk wrote:

FUTURESTRADER wrote:

BTAEX down .97% today...us dollar futures down, 100% S at the open tommorow...100% G for monday open based on tonite's closes:^

That was closer to the I fund result. I will keep watching. But as you said, it is a pretty late quote so it's not too helpful during the day.

Good morning Tom,

I have streaming realtime charts running all day, EFA included, DWCP, etc., They're fun to watch but not really too helpful in 'trading' the TSP. I did get caught up in trying to predict the close of the DWCP and beat the transfer time of 11:59 est. Half the time I will guess right. Like a coin toss. Can't daytrade the TSP.

 

[tsptalk]

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If they would just change the deadline to 4 PM ET, like mutual funds....

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

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how 'bout 9:29 a.m. for that trading day??!!

 

[smine]

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Funny you should say that. I decided instead of wishing they would change the cut off time that I would write a letter to the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board. I told the Chairman that extending this deadline to market closing would help TSP participants better manage their funds and probably maximize their earnings, which would be good for TSP too. I received the response letter yesterday. He thanked me for my kind comments and went on to explain this:

"In order to be processed the same day, interfund transfers must be submitted by 12:00pm eastern time, or four hours before the market closes. This cutoff time is necessary because orders placed with TSP's investment manager, Barclays Global Investors must be made by 2:00p eastern time. The two hours between 12:00pm and 2:00pm are needed for the TSP to process the transactions that will be included in the daily trade."

He goes on to explain that in the private sector many investors do trade up until market closure but this comes at a significant cost. "Under the TSP model, virtually all amounts can be invested each day. As required by law, the TSP's focus is on minimizing the costs borne by participants".

THEN, the final paragragh: "The TSP was not designed for active trading, and I would caution you against using it for that purpose. It is not advisable to make market bets with the money that funds your retirement. We recommend that you choose an asset allocation that is appropriate for you, and use interfund transfers primarily for rebalancing your account to use that asset allocation."

I didn't particularly like the lecture. My money has been in thrift for many years, just sitting earning the very least amount it could. Having better control over these funds is not only earning me more but also educating me on what affects my retirement money. I am not in the first grade and can make active decisions, wrong or right, about my own money. I just felt that I should try to change the way TSP does business. After all, they have made many changes in the process over the years.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

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it is understandable why the times are when they are..vs paying commision:shock:..pretty nice to learn the market in that way...I do kinda resent their attitude as well, their 'warnings'..a standard 'cover their butts' position, tho..typical of government management; applying a didactic facade to subterfuge a lack of expertise.

 

[JerBer]

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Yeah, not only that, but they're putting up a front to cover their ineptitude !!