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James48843

James48843

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I try to buy stocks that are either market segments that I have been watching, or products that I have some familiarity with.

Now on my radar is ticker symbol "SPAR".

Sparten Motors is a growing company HQ's about 30 miles from my hometown. They build an increasing segment of the motorhome chassis market, and build firetruck/ambulance chassis. Recently, they've added a military segment to their mix, and have been doing very well. I found them as I was watching FRPT and CRDN, two other stocks I have owned over the last few months.

Anyway- that's my pick for this year- SPAR.
 
You'd think that gas prices would hurt that industry, but that goes to show you how strong the economy is.
 
The price of gas is just one factor-

Here is why SPAR is the winner here-

1. Has major part of the new mil vehicle contracts- it's getting purchases from both General Dynamics and FRPT. FRPT gained 14% today on word that Army will consider buying more. SPAR is going to get a huge contract regardless of whether or not the FRPT or General Dynamics gets a piece.
(SPAR gained $2.64 (over 9%) today alone!)

2. IN the motorhome market (big dollars), there has been a consolidation of manufacturers in the last couple years, and now babyboomers are about to hit (and are hitting) the retirement age- and THEY are going to be buying motorhomes. SPAR went from 32 chassis to 40 different chassis in the last year- so now SPAR has a bigger share of the market, and the market is consolidating into the number of producers. So SPAR's part will continue to accellerate.

3. In the fire engine business, national fire code requires communities to upgrade their equipment every so many years- that is why you don't see a 1950's or 1960's fire engine today- because they are required to update every so often. We are about to enter another big cycle on the purchase of fire engines- so over the next couple years, that segment is going to grow huge as well.

In all three areas- the future is so bright, I gotta wear shades.

Check out SPAR.
 
Another "interesting find" I am watching is Orasure, symbol "OSUR".

Orasure is a maker of HIV oral test kits, along with other products for oral medical testing. They have developed a test kit used by a lot of community testing centers, and is working on a "home test kit" now as well.

Currently is trading at just around $7.25 a share.

When FDA approves the over-the-counter test kit, I would think that this one will go up significantly in value.

It meets my criteria for investing- 1. a product poised for huge growth; 2. a product that saves lives; 3. a leader in their field; 4. positive trends towards profitability; 5. enough regulation in the field that there will not be a quick or easy competitor that will surpass them without warning; 6. not a product that can easily or quickly be moved off-shore to a third world country for production; 7. relatively small, so there is room for explosive growth; and 8. a product that benefits mankind

This one is a longer-term investment for me. My outlook for this one is well into 2008 and beyond.
 
If you're still in SPAR, you'll be OK. I'd just make sure I had a stop on it. It's had a quick run up.

FRPT though, I can't figure out what drives this stock. It had a few cup/handle breakouts but other than that does it really have any solid fundamentals? One day up 4.5%, next day down 5%. It's taken a good beating the past few days and I will be watching for any kind of base to form but I'm not too enthusiastic as the pros are all over this one like sharks.
 
How about Constellation Brands (STZ)? How can you go wrong with the alcohol sector. They specialize in spirits and wines. I'm watching for it to break out above $25.50 because recently it's been facing resistance at $24.50. All those people who bought on the downside want to get out and break even and it just so happens to be around 24.50. If it breaks 25.50, it has the capability to run to around 28 where it faces resistance again.
 
Bullitt said:
If you're still in SPAR, you'll be OK. I'd just make sure I had a stop on it. It's had a quick run up.

FRPT though, I can't figure out what drives this stock. It had a few cup/handle breakouts but other than that does it really have any solid fundamentals? One day up 4.5%, next day down 5%. It's taken a good beating the past few days and I will be watching for any kind of base to form but I'm not too enthusiastic as the pros are all over this one like sharks.
Click to expand...

I sold a little of my SPAR at the open this morning, and will look to buy back more in the next day or two at a lower cost. SPAR is an excellent company and I plan to be long term with it.

FRPT has taken a wild ride for a couple reasons-
1. There were several orders to others for work that some people thought would go to FRPT. FRPT WILL get some of that, but I think some we expecting FRPT to get more.
2. One of the officers sold a large chunk of FRPT last week when it hit 30. People think perhaps he may know something. the timiing was a day or two before one of FRPT's competitors got a nice contract. So now FRPT is down around 23 on that hit.

I think that will shake out over the next week or so. My money is still on SPAR for a nice ralley back up shortly. I only sold my leveraged shares of SPAR. My base shares I still have.
 
Bullitt said:
How about Constellation Brands (STZ)? How can you go wrong with the alcohol sector. They specialize in spirits and wines. I'm watching for it to break out above $25.50 because recently it's been facing resistance at $24.50. All those people who bought on the downside want to get out and break even and it just so happens to be around 24.50. If it breaks 25.50, it has the capability to run to around 28 where it faces resistance again.
Click to expand...

What is it about the company that you like? Is it just the techincal aspects of the chart on it, or do you see some things in the actual company that have your attention?

I took a look at it's financials, and, while it is interesting, I don't see anything right off the bat that is telling me that the company is headed higher. What do you see?
 
That's just it, based off finanancials it doesn't have what it takes to get it moving. First heard of this company when I visited a winery a few years ago in Canada and I started to notice that it gained some popularity since. (Not all because of good news as you know.) Still definitely not fundamentally sound, you are right. It got hammered after two bad earnings calls.

I know some people like to invest in what they know, and I figured we all know litte something about the alcohol sector since it's everywhere. Stock has had a strange run but I wouldn't be a buyer until it made a strong move up.
 
"If you're still in SPAR, you'll be OK. I'd just make sure I had a stop on it. It's had a quick run up."

I wasn't surprised with how fast SPAR and FRPT crumbled. Next stock to go BUST will be CROX. It's a matter of time before that house of cards falls.
 
Bullitt said:
Next stock to go BUST will be CROX. It's a matter of time before that house of cards falls.
Click to expand...

There was an article in the Denver Post a couple of weeks ago about Crocs. They detailed the amount of insider selling that has gone on.
 
Yeah it's amazing how those guys always seem to pick the tops. One of my gems had some insider selling this week. A director just dumped 250,000 shares at the new high and the two days before that 2 other insiders dumped a combined 130,000 shares. I know it's said insider selling is done for things like buying a new house, etc but dumping shares in that magnitude is not a good sign. Here's the rub. Analysts raised forward guidance and then those insiders bailed.

Anyway, in my stock trading account I am about 70% out of the market at this point. If the selloff didn't come around I would have dumped the above stock after the prior two days of downside on high volume but the selloff came and quickly stopped me out at the 50 DMA.

Partially my fault for not setting a tighter stop well above the 50 DMA. That would have given me another 3%. It didn't help that I was at work when all of this was going on, so I was unable to participate during market hours. In retrospect, there were some nice block sales going thru those two days of insider selling as well which I would have seen right away had I been at the CPU.

Bottom line though is that I got greedy and was waiting for that 18.5% to hit 20% before cashing out. Stupid, stupid and a good lesson learned.
 
weatherweenie said:
There was an article in the Denver Post a couple of weeks ago about Crocs. They detailed the amount of insider selling that has gone on.
Click to expand...

CROX is strictly for suckers. People see that maniac Phil Town talk and say how when a stock sells off it is on 'Sale'. Every mom and pop who's bought those ugly shoes for their kids has jumped on the bandwagon and driven the stock up. Wait until that stock misses a quarter. You're going to see a drop similar to the recent one in SFL. I haven't checked but there's probably a high short interest in that stock.
 
Paladin said:
Of course I wouldn't touch the things because to me a shoe isn't a shoe unless a cow has died in order to make it. :cool:
Click to expand...

Personally, I won't wear it unless it was an American cow that died. Those shoes made in China are not for me.

U.S. manufactured shoes are hard to find, but I still can find them.

Bates Oxfords. The last a long time.

And they use good American cows.

http://www.batesfootwear.com/
 
The shorts got run over again today in CROX. That stock first caught my attention in 11/06 and I didn't like the valuations. I was just a little wrong on that one. If I were to put money in today I'm sure it will tank, but since I'm not going to get near it, it's going to $110+.
 
Paladin said:
My wife and three kids all wear them. They love the bright colors and say they are the most comfortable shoes they've ever had. Crocs are versatile in that you can wear them at the beach, walk in the water, work in the garden, hose them off, etc. The kids like the fact that they are very trendy and come in designer styles like Disney where the holes are in the shape of Mickey's head.
Click to expand...

I know someone that works for Crocs. She has told me that Crocs have deals with NASCAR and Starbucks in the works. Point being, Crocs are working on, and getting marketing agreements with some pretty big clients.
 
Another one I've been into for the last three years is CRDN.

Very interesting - and is how I got into watching FRPT and SPAR to begin with.

CRDN's growth has been amazing- and right now they are in the process of trying to transition into a braoder range of products. Take a look and you'll find some pretty amazing things going on.
 
Yes, CRDN is a good stock. The stock should be trading much higher but the problem is that wall street is afraid that the Iraq War is going to end and crush CRDN's profits. That war isn't going away any time soon. It's only going to get worse. I remember looking at Ceradyne sometime in the early months of 2007 when it was trading in that channel. Looks like it had a nice volume cup and handle breakout on Friday. Did they report earinings Friday? I know it was upgraded today. IBD has featured FRPT and CRDN a few times. They are both the kind of companies that nobody can accurately project earnings estimates.
 
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