Interest rate changes

[tsptalk]

Traders see good chance the Fed cuts again in December then skips in January

Expectations for a December interest rate cut remained strong after the Federal Reserve trimmed rates by a quarter percentage point in November.

On Thursday afternoon, the U.S. central bank lowered the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/07/traders-see-good-chance-the-fed-cuts-again-in-december-then-skips-in-january.html

 

[tsptalk]

It's not a big change but the chances of a rate cut from the Fed at the January meeting is just 3%.



It also fell from 44% yesterday, to 28% today for the March meeting.

 

[tsptalk]

Fed holds key rate steady, still sees two more cuts this year

The Federal Reserve kept its key borrowing rate targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December.

However, the central bank expects inflation to remain elevated and sees lower economic growth ahead.

Still, the Federal Open Market Committee expects to make two rate reductions later this year, according to the closely watched “dot plot.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/fed-rate-decision-june-2025-.html

 

[tsptalk]

Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that he doesn’t expect tariffs to boost inflation significantly so policymakers should be looking to lower interest rates as early as next month.

“If you’re starting to worry about the downside risk [to the] labor market, move now, don’t wait,” he said.

Most Fed policymakers prefer a wait-and-see approach, with market pricing indicating the next rate cut won’t come until September.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/20/fed-governor-waller-says-central-bank-could-cut-rates-as-early-as-july.html

 

[tsptalk]

No change to rates today:

Here’s what changed in the new Fed statement

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/july-fed-meeting-heres-what-changed-in-the-new-statement.html

 

[nasa1974]

Looks like the market didn't care for what Powell had to say.

 

[tsptalk]

Source

 

[tsptalk]

Latest on the probability of a rate cut this month: 97.4%

 

[tsptalk]

Traders see a chance the Fed cuts by a half point

In the most likely scenario being priced in by markets, the Fed on Sept. 17 will lower the overnight funds rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point.

However, traders left open a remote chance that the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee still could enact a half-point reduction.

Fed officials will get inflation data later this week on producer and consumer prices, the last major data releases before the meeting. Higher-than-expected CPI would likely cement the quarter-point move.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/08/traders-see-a-chance-the-fed-cuts-by-a-half-point.html

 

[exnavyew]

FWIW:

Why a Fed rate cut might not help the stock market​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-a-fed-rate-cut-might-not-help-the-stock-market-080026277.html