08/09/13
Free Access to RevShark's Premium Service ends today. See below for more info.
Stocks had a wild ride in early trading yesterday as both the high and the low of the day were hit within the first hour of trading. The Dow ended the day up 28-points, while the positive reversal day on Wednesday, did produce follow-trough upside on most indices.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0056%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.57%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.67%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 is bouncing off of the support after the 3-day pullback. That is classic bull market action, but we are starting to see some cracks in the indicators.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
When will the bears ever learn? Those of a waiting for a significant pullback to jump in will have to keep waiting. The indicators have been showing signs of some possible weakness ahead, but this market has fought them off epeatedly times this year.
The PMO indicator saw a crossover sell signal yesterday. This has not always been very bearish, although the last one came just as the market was peaking in June - prior to the 5% pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
You can see the other oscillator-type indicators above are also still heading lower despite the bounce.
The dollar (UUP) broke below one of its rising support lines yesterday, but remains above the June low. Do you remember how, in 2012, we could count on weakness in the dollar meaning strength in stocks, and strength in the dollar meant stock weakness?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This year has been much different. Stocks and the dollar are almost moving in unison. Just an observation, but if the dollar starts to breakdown and makes new lows, it could be a warning for stocks.
This chart shows how quickly S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Rydex Leveraged accounts have become bullish. As we know, excessive bullish or bearish sentiment can be great contrarian indicators, and this one seems to be no exception. The prior signal this high came near the June high in the S&P.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Speaking of sentiment, the recent 2 - 3 day dip took our readers' sentiment back into excessively bearish territory. This has been the theme since the November 2012 lows. Our TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 42% bulls, 44% bears which is a fresh new buy signal for the Sentiment Survey System.
Administrative Note: RevShark is offering free access to his TSP Timing premium service for everyone, through Friday. You do have to create a login to gain access. If you have a login to the premium area, login here.
If you don't have an account yet, here's how to get started... TSP Talk - How To Sign Up
Or view video instructions here: TSP Talk - How to Create a Premium Service Account
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Free Access to RevShark's Premium Service ends today. See below for more info.
Stocks had a wild ride in early trading yesterday as both the high and the low of the day were hit within the first hour of trading. The Dow ended the day up 28-points, while the positive reversal day on Wednesday, did produce follow-trough upside on most indices.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0056%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.57%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.67%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 is bouncing off of the support after the 3-day pullback. That is classic bull market action, but we are starting to see some cracks in the indicators.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
When will the bears ever learn? Those of a waiting for a significant pullback to jump in will have to keep waiting. The indicators have been showing signs of some possible weakness ahead, but this market has fought them off epeatedly times this year.
The PMO indicator saw a crossover sell signal yesterday. This has not always been very bearish, although the last one came just as the market was peaking in June - prior to the 5% pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
You can see the other oscillator-type indicators above are also still heading lower despite the bounce.
The dollar (UUP) broke below one of its rising support lines yesterday, but remains above the June low. Do you remember how, in 2012, we could count on weakness in the dollar meaning strength in stocks, and strength in the dollar meant stock weakness?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This year has been much different. Stocks and the dollar are almost moving in unison. Just an observation, but if the dollar starts to breakdown and makes new lows, it could be a warning for stocks.
This chart shows how quickly S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Rydex Leveraged accounts have become bullish. As we know, excessive bullish or bearish sentiment can be great contrarian indicators, and this one seems to be no exception. The prior signal this high came near the June high in the S&P.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Speaking of sentiment, the recent 2 - 3 day dip took our readers' sentiment back into excessively bearish territory. This has been the theme since the November 2012 lows. Our TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 42% bulls, 44% bears which is a fresh new buy signal for the Sentiment Survey System.
Administrative Note: RevShark is offering free access to his TSP Timing premium service for everyone, through Friday. You do have to create a login to gain access. If you have a login to the premium area, login here.
If you don't have an account yet, here's how to get started... TSP Talk - How To Sign Up
Or view video instructions here: TSP Talk - How to Create a Premium Service Account
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
