Stocks were mixed on Friday with a bit of a role reversal for the indices as the Dow led on the upside with a 119-point gain, while the recent leaders, the Nasdaq and the small caps, lagged. There was some late selling that pushed the indices to their lows of the day, which is usually a short-term technical negative, but it was an "inside day" and there was some index rebalancing on Friday so the action may have seemed a little more dramatic than it really was.
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Oil, which has struggled badly, had a surprisingly sharp rally on Friday after OPEC agreed to a smaller than expected production boost. The Financials were down again and continue to flirt with a major breakdown, as you'll see in the charts down below.
We're almost through the weaker portion of the June Seasonality chart, although the final days of June aren't overly impressive either - just a lot better than what we just came out of.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The S&P 500 / C-fund posted an inside day where the day's lows and highs were within Thursday's range. There's a lot of clues here but they are not all consistent with each other. There's a possible bull flag forming, but also the rising support line was broken on Thursday and Friday's highs found resistance at that old support line. There is still a small open gap below 2740 that could also get some attention this week.
The small caps (S-fund) also had a minor breakdown last week from the rising support which is currently near 1455, but there is also support just above 1440 so we could see either, or both, of these get tested early this week.
The Dow Jones Transportation closed below its F-flag but it is resting on the 50-day EMA, which is usually a good place to find support, but as you'll see on this chart it has not really been a major factor when it comes to support and resistance here.
The EAFE Index (I-fund) continues to lag but a recent dip in the dollar late last week helped push the index back near the 200-day EMA, but it still closed below it for a 4th straight day. There are a couple of open gaps above, as there always seems to be on the EAFE, so that would be the only reason I would think this has room to move up. It seems to be going the way of the financials...
And here is the Financial Sector ETF and you can see how similar it is to the chart above. I assume as one goes, so will the other since the dollar can impact both.
The price of oil shot up after OPEC agreed to a smaller than expected boost in production. Smaller supplies usually means higher prices, but this chart has been struggling so it will be interesting to see if that was a one day wonder for the price of oil.
The AGG (Bonds /F-fund) was up on Friday as it continues to remain above the 50-day EMA. It seems to be in the process of digesting the gains from that big rally toward the end of May.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Oil, which has struggled badly, had a surprisingly sharp rally on Friday after OPEC agreed to a smaller than expected production boost. The Financials were down again and continue to flirt with a major breakdown, as you'll see in the charts down below.
We're almost through the weaker portion of the June Seasonality chart, although the final days of June aren't overly impressive either - just a lot better than what we just came out of.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The S&P 500 / C-fund posted an inside day where the day's lows and highs were within Thursday's range. There's a lot of clues here but they are not all consistent with each other. There's a possible bull flag forming, but also the rising support line was broken on Thursday and Friday's highs found resistance at that old support line. There is still a small open gap below 2740 that could also get some attention this week.
The small caps (S-fund) also had a minor breakdown last week from the rising support which is currently near 1455, but there is also support just above 1440 so we could see either, or both, of these get tested early this week.
The Dow Jones Transportation closed below its F-flag but it is resting on the 50-day EMA, which is usually a good place to find support, but as you'll see on this chart it has not really been a major factor when it comes to support and resistance here.
The EAFE Index (I-fund) continues to lag but a recent dip in the dollar late last week helped push the index back near the 200-day EMA, but it still closed below it for a 4th straight day. There are a couple of open gaps above, as there always seems to be on the EAFE, so that would be the only reason I would think this has room to move up. It seems to be going the way of the financials...
And here is the Financial Sector ETF and you can see how similar it is to the chart above. I assume as one goes, so will the other since the dollar can impact both.
The price of oil shot up after OPEC agreed to a smaller than expected boost in production. Smaller supplies usually means higher prices, but this chart has been struggling so it will be interesting to see if that was a one day wonder for the price of oil.
The AGG (Bonds /F-fund) was up on Friday as it continues to remain above the 50-day EMA. It seems to be in the process of digesting the gains from that big rally toward the end of May.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
