IFTs 101 needed. Sentiment System How-To Questions. Anyone? Bueller?

[Rogue]

I read a bunch of threads the past week or so, but haven't found a nuts & bolts answer for this. I'm thinking of following the Sentiment System next year and want to make sure I know what to expect and what I'm supposed to be doing. My tsp account finally exceeds my mortgage, so I don't want to screw this up by just moving things on the wrong day. And yes I realize that we can't expect 30% every year, but it seems that the Sentiment system consistently outperforms my system of never doing IFTs.

So, if a feller were going to begin to use IFTs, what are the how's and whens of it? Let's say I am going to move, for round numbers' sake, 50% of my money around according to the Sentiment System. If the system says you should move 100% to the S fund next week, the week of Jan. 3 - Jan. 9, when do I make this happen on the tsp.gov site? If I enter it Friday morning, will it be in effect Monday morning? Do the "Sentimentalists" then move everything back to G fund

With only 2 IFT's per month, if the Sentiment Survey says to go 100% S fund the first week of the month and 100% G fund
the second week, I'm done for that month, since I've used my 2 IFT's up for the month, right?

Finally, am I even asking the right question(s)?

 

[poolman]

Can a person only make 2 IFTs per month? Is there a fee or something if you want to do more? Surely it isn't set up to where you CAN'T make another IFT if you exceed the 2/month. Is it?

Finally, am I even asking the right question(s)?

"Can a person only make 2 IFTs per month?"

You can only make 2 IFTs per month to any fund you want. Your IFT must add up to 100%. After your 2'nd IFT you can make more IFT's but only to the G - Fund. Example -

1'st IFT - Make a move any percentage to any fund. 50% - C, 10% - S, 20% - F, 10% - G, 10% - I.

2'nd IFT - Make a move any percentage to any fund. Move everything to C, 100% - C.

Every IFT after this will be to the G - Fund. You move either 100% - G or percentages to G. Examples

3'rd IFT - 50% - C, 50% - G.

4'th IFT - 25% - C, 75% - G.

5'th IFT - 10% - C, 90% - G.

6 'th IFT - 0% - C, 100% - G.
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"Is there a fee or something if you want to do more?"

No. You can not do more.

_____________________________________________________________


"Surely it isn't set up to where you CAN'T make another IFT if you exceed the 2/month. Is it?"

It sure is set up like this. You can NOT make more than 2 IFT's per month to any fund you want. After you have made your 2'nd IFT all IFT's after that must be percentages going only to the G - Fund.

_____________________________________________________________


"Finally, am I even asking the right question(s)?"

Yes, You are asking the right questions.

_____________________________________________________________

There are many many posts related to the 2 IFT per Month Decision if you go back in time and read the posts. Everything is in this forum related to this Rule. Just to let you know.

_____________________________________________________________

The other part of your question I will let either Tom answer or someone will answer your question specifically related to the Sentiment Survey.

I Hope this Helps You!

 

[Boghie]

Rogue,

Congrats on the balance - and a nice way of thinking about it...

Anyway, if you poke around the AutoTracker - in particular here - you will see that the IFTs are made in such a way as to be in force on the first day of the week following the trade signal. That is, in a normal week (one ending on a tradable Friday) the IFT will be made after 1200 EST on Thursday but before 1200 EST on Friday. That way, the actual trade occurs COB on Friday and is in effect at market open on Monday.

You probably got a little confused because of the wierd week endings during the holidays... Or, maybe the discussion occuring prior to the actual IFT... Keep it simple...

By the way, you are kinda correct regarding the trade count limit. However. it seems that the monthly trade count is very limited in the Sentiment Survey system (as it is with CoolHands Seven Sentinals). Remember that you are allowed bailout trades to the 'G Fund' even after making your two IFTs. And, you are right about 'G Fund' trades counting toward your IFT limit - if it is one of your first two trades in the month.

There is a way to make more foward IFTs after you reach the 2 IFT limit. It is called the '< 1%' IFT. You have to set up your account properly to use it - but this strategy (found by SqualeBear) can allow you to move up to 8% into funds with at least some equity holdings.

Happy Hunting.

 

[tsptalk]

... it seems that the Sentiment system consistently outperforms my system of never doing IFTs.

Hi Rogue. Actually, in 2009 the sentiment survey lagged the other stock funds... just so you know.

Let's say I am going to move, for round numbers' sake, 50% of my money around according to the Sentiment System. If the system says you should move 100% to the S fund next week, the week of Jan. 3 - Jan. 9, when do I make this happen on the tsp.gov site? If I enter it Friday morning, will it be in effect Monday morning?

That's correct. The results are posted late Thursday/early Friday so that an IFT can be made before noon ET on Friday. That puts you in your new funds for Monday morning. Now, what is happening this Friday with the holiday, I don't know for sure. Some say they are processing transactions. Some say no.

Do the "Sentimentalists" then move everything back to G fund

If you mean when there is a sell signal, yes. 100% G.

When a new buy / sell signal is given, you stay in that fund until another buy or sell signal is given. The neutral or "hold" signals just mean, stay where you are.

With only 2 IFT's per month, if the Sentiment Survey says to go 100% S fund the first week of the month and 100% G fund the second week, I'm done for that month, since I've used my 2 IFT's up for the month, right?

That's correct. So far the system has not gone over the transfer limit, but in theory it could happen. But sentiment would have to swing pretty wildly during the month for it to happen.

 

[poolman]

That's correct. The results are posted late Thursday/early Friday so that an IFT can be made before noon ET on Friday. That puts you in your new funds for Monday morning. Now, what is happening this Friday with the holiday, I don't know for sure. Some say they are processing transactions. Some say no.

What's the Tel # Tom ? Here or PM. 18 minutes and counting.

 

[poolman]

Friday's Transactions will be processed Monday with Monday's closing Prices.

 

[tsptalk]

I don't think that is correct. Just a hunch because that means the last trading day in 2010 rolls its return in 2011. I don't think they would do that.

The "What's New" page says:
"Because the stock and bond markets will be open on December 31, the TSP will process transactions. However, since December 31 is a Federal holiday, the TSP call centers will be closed. "

 

[poolman]

I don't think that is correct. Just a hunch because that means the last trading day in 2010 rolls its return in 2011. I don't think they would do that.

The "What's New" page says:
"Because the stock and bond markets will be open on December 31, the TSP will process transactions. However, since December 31 is a Federal holiday, the TSP call centers will be closed. "

I don't know. A Fed Holiday is a Fed Holiday. And we know how the Fed's work.

"A Day off By God is a Day Off" and the Lights will remain OFF.

Unless on Monday during the day or whenever they process EOY using Friday's closing prices ? But nobody has said that.

I see the Dilemma/Oddity.

Am I missing somthing ?

 

[JTH]

I don't think that is correct. Just a hunch because that means the last trading day in 2010 rolls its return in 2011. I don't think they would do that.

The "What's New" page says:
"Because the stock and bond markets will be open on December 31, the TSP will process transactions. However, since December 31 is a Federal holiday, the TSP call centers will be closed. "

I don't show Dec 31st being a federal holiday, I'll be working and I don't work when I don't have to.

 

[poolman]

I don't show Dec 31st being a federal holiday, I'll be working and I don't work when I don't have to.

The 2010 Payroll and Holiday Calendar shows December 31, 2010 (Friday) as "Holiday Observed".

 

[Rogue]

Awesome, thanks for the answers, y'all. It looks like my reading comprehension was mostly intact...some of the information here is way over my head financially and I appreciate the patience and willingness of some of the more sophisticated investors here. It's kept me lurking for a couple years.

I was showing this site to a friend who is close to retirement and said at my age (37) he'd jump on a system like those described here. Maybe I'll put 50% in L funds and follow a system with 50% and hope for some of the >15% returns I keep seeing. Sure once in awhile it would be great to spike into the 20%-30% range, but I want keep my goals realistic.

 

[tsptalk]

Sorry to hijack your thread, Rogue, but in case anyone missed it, they finally updated the site to show that there ARE processing transactions and there will be share prices on Friday 12/31.

The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Friday, December 31 in observance of New Year's Day. The stock and bond markets will be open, and the TSP will process transactions. However, since December 31 is a Federal Holiday, the TSP call centers will be closed.

I don't know. A Fed Holiday is a Fed Holiday. And we know how the Fed's work.

"A Day off By God is a Day Off" and the Lights will remain OFF.

Unless on Monday during the day or whenever they process EOY using Friday's closing prices ? But nobody has said that.

I see the Dilemma/Oddity.

Am I missing somthing ?

 

[Rogue]

OK, I am seeing 2 places that seem to show different IFT dates/advice.
Are both the same Sentiment Survey?

Boghie referenced this in his helpful reply:
http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_show.php?user=Sentiment_Survey

And this looks like it shows recommendations to IFT more frequently:
http://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php

Chances are I'm reading these wrong.

 

[James48843]

OK, I am seeing 2 places that seem to show different IFT dates/advice.
Are both the same Sentiment Survey?

Boghie referenced this in his helpful reply:
http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_show.php?user=Sentiment_Survey

And this looks like it shows recommendations to IFT more frequently:
http://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php

Chances are I'm reading these wrong.

yes- those are both the same survey.

the last trade dates are a bit unusual, because friday the 24th the market was closed. the survey was published before noon on the 23rd, meaning the trade would be effective at the close of business on the 23rd. Normally, Tom would publish the data on Friday, not Thrusday, so the trade would actually take effect at friday's Close of business.

The system is in 'G" right now, having moved there last week thursday. Hope that helps.

 

[Boghie]

Gotya Rogue...

The Senitment survey is taken every week.

However, it rarely (if ever) changes week to week. So, yes, it can change every week. But, no, it generally holds the same allocation for a number of weeks.

The 'http://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php' link will show you that it will switch to a 'SELL' (ie. bail out to the 'G Fund') and hold the 'SELL' for quite some time. That means that you continue to hold the 'G Fund'. Then it will switch to a 'BUY' and put you in the C or S Fund. Then it will continue to stay on a 'BUY' for some time. Thus you continue to hold either the C or S Fund (the one indicated).

Later...

 

[tsptalk]

The system is in 'G" right now, having moved there last week thursday. Hope that helps.

Surprise, surprise. A buy signal out of nowhere. I guess everyone is expecting a selloff next week?

 

[Rogue]

Thanks, y'all. I realize I'm being awfully concrete about this.

So, since the Senitment Survey tool says this:

01/03/11 - 01/07/11 46% 39% 1.18 -1 Buy S Bull

It is advising to make an IFT today to move funds into S-fund for next week, correct?

 

[burrocrat]

Thanks, y'all. I realize I'm being awfully concrete about this.

So, since the Senitment Survey tool says this:

It is advising to make an IFT today to move funds into S-fund for next week.

i think you got the timing part down, but advising may not be the right terminology, more like aggregated personal opinion and shared research.

what you chose to do with your money is up to you.

 

[Rogue]

Gotcha, I understand that I'm making my own decisions. I just got the email message and I read it correctly. I'm getting past my cold feet here so I'm about to wade into the pool and make an IFT. Let's make some money!

 

[Guest2]

Rogue,

Congrats on the balance - and a nice way of thinking about it...

Anyway, if you poke around the AutoTracker - in particular here - you will see that the IFTs are made in such a way as to be in force on the first day of the week following the trade signal. That is, in a normal week (one ending on a tradable Friday) the IFT will be made after 1200 EST on Thursday but before 1200 EST on Friday. That way, the actual trade occurs COB on Friday and is in effect at market open on Monday.

You probably got a little confused because of the wierd week endings during the holidays... Or, maybe the discussion occuring prior to the actual IFT... Keep it simple...

By the way, you are kinda correct regarding the trade count limit. However. it seems that the monthly trade count is very limited in the Sentiment Survey system (as it is with CoolHands Seven Sentinals). Remember that you are allowed bailout trades to the 'G Fund' even after making your two IFTs. And, you are right about 'G Fund' trades counting toward your IFT limit - if it is one of your first two trades in the month.

There is a way to make more foward IFTs after you reach the 2 IFT limit. It is called the '< 1%' IFT. You have to set up your account properly to use it - but this strategy (found by SqualeBear) can allow you to move up to 8% into funds with at least some equity holdings.

Happy Hunting.

Thanks for the kind mention "B"