If there is a wall of worry out there, stocks are clearly still climbing it

07/01/25

If there is a wall of worry out there, stocks are clearly still climbing it. We saw decent gains across the board yesterday to end the month and the second quarter. The I-fund did lag despite another sharp move lower in the dollar. That puts a second straight strong month in the books for the TSP stock funds. Yields were down giving the F-fund another nice daily gain.

(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)

tsp-0701250789.gif
Daily TSP Funds Return
tsp-0701250789s.gif

More returns


At some point that wall of worry may turn into giddiness or euphoria, and that will be when we may have to start actually worrying. But until then, and while we see Investor Sentiment Surveys like the AAII Survey showing more people bearish than bullish (35% bulls, 40% bears last week), the market might just continue to creep higher.

Of course news events could shake things up in the short-term, but that would actually make investors even more bearish, and it becomes a wash, rinse, repeat situation, and that's how the market climbs that wall.

With that analysis out of the way, I want to add some administrative updates and information.

For those of you who do not know, outside of the Revshark and Intrepid Timer's premium services that we offer, TSP Talk has been run from top to bottom by me, Tom Crowley, with lots of some help in the forum from some super helpful moderators. But I do the commentary, maintain the site's coding, including the AutoTracker, and anything else that needs to be done.

My son, who goes by TommyIV in the forum, and usually signs his name as "Thomas" to distinguish himself from me, has been taking on more of a role in recent years. He has been the author of the Weekly Wrap Up reports for more than a decade, and he is also the creator of the Daily Last Look Report.

I was a computer programmer in my government days and that has meant that I had to take care of all the code changes to the AutoTracker, although we are slowly getting TommyIV more familiar with the code, and thanks to AI, he has been able to contribute more and more.

That said, I had heard rumors this weekend, but is looks official that the TSP has retired the L2025 fund and they will implement an L2075 fund. So, on Monday night, I started to dive into the AutoTracker code to implement these changes, and it's no small feat so today's commentary will be quick. As a gov't employee, I probably would have been given six months to make these changes and had them go through a thorough testing process, but I will have to pull this off in a day or two. Come late Tuesday or Wednesday I would appreciate a head's up if you see any issues. tom @ (you know). Thanks!

By the way, anyone who was in the L2025 Fund on the AutoTracker, that allocation was moved into the L-Income fund, which is what I believe the TSP did as well. Also, we don't encourage "trading" the L-funds. They are designed as pre-allocated funds for specific time frames, and it doesn't make a lot of sense to trade them like the 5 main funds. For those of you who spread your allocation among multiple L-funds... Uh, never mind. ;^)

Luckily the stock market is behaving and there isn't a whole lot to add to my wonderful analysis above. That is, stocks are climbing the wall of worry, and probably will continue until more people embrace this rally rather than fight it. Once everyone (or a large majority) is on board, that's probably when the rally might start to run out of steam.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) is off and running during this typically bullish biased week for stocks. Headlines could shake things up in the short-term, but the bears may be hibernating until after the long holiday weekend.

tsp-c-fund-0701250789.gif



The spending bill is still not a done deal and the tariff deadlines are approaching, so those are the headlines I am talking about right now. I don't think that the tariff deadlines are set in stone, but while we wait for that July 9 date, we could see deals being announced with some of our trading partners in the interim.

It's a holiday shortened week and with Friday being the holiday, we will get a rare Thursday monthly jobs report. Estimates are looking for a again of 120,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. A weaker than expected report may actually get some bullish attention as the Fed may be more likely to cut interest rates if there are signs of a weakening labor market.




The DWCPF / S-fund was up nicely but it has not broken out of that wedge yet, but it is rising along the bottom of its rising resistance line.

tsp-s-fund-0701250789.gif



The ACWX (I-fund) was up 0.20% despite a 0.52% decline in the dollar. I would have expected a larger gain in ACWX with the news lows in UUP..

tsp-i-fund-0701250789.gif



BND (bonds / F-fund) continues to reach for the top of that breakdown candlestick from April, which may be the short-term target.

tsp-f-fund-0701250789.gif



Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php



Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.

Daily Market Commentary Archives

For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php

To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.



Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top